your comment is clearly formulated in a way so that my reply to it should give my reasons why i believe russia is likely to invade ukraine, which isn’t bad in any way of course (formulation, not invasion), but, i’m afraid there’s not much i can offer besides the existing satellite pictures, convoy footage, articles and other news coverage, intelligence of other countries etc, which you no doubt have already seen
don’t get me wrong, i, more than anyone would like this whole thing to turn out to be a too-far-taken negotiating tactic for russia’s demands to stop expansion of nato, bc i have ukranian friends who are likely to get drafted, some of my closest friends in russia were at risk of being drafted even before this whole thing started, i myself could get drafted in the event of a war
i would be really happy to be able to look back at this comment in a year and laugh at how ridiculous this whole thing was, but, one thing we’ve learned is that we’ll never fail to be surprised by the kind of fucked up shit a crazy, nationalistic autocrat with zero oversight catering to a nationalistic population can do…
First, let’s establish some context here. What Russia is rightly concerned about is the fact that NATO has been relentlessly expanding to the east. They’ve now given NATO an ultimatum that it has to roll back and comply with the original security guarantees that were given after USSR dissolved. The threat to Russia is real and should not be understated. NATO being able to put nukes in Ukraine would mean that they could reach Moscow in five minutes. This is a red line for Russia. All the NATO members have already stated that there is no prospects of Ukraine joining NATO or EU in the foreseeable future. This precludes any reason for Russia to act.
Russia has also never once said that it plans to invade Ukraine. The troops you’re talking about are stationed in their barracks. Likewise, France, Germany, and even Ukraine are saying that there is no Russian invasion happening.
So far, the only countries insisting that there is some imminent invasion are US and UK. And the country that’s been most damaged by these claims is Ukraine since all the investors are now pulling out leading to the economy crashing. This is the primary reason Ukrainian government has now broken with the US narrative.
Russia is achieving its goals without any need to invade Ukraine. Europe has absolutely no interest in having a full out war in Ukraine, and it’s also heavily dependent on Russian gas and oil meaning that EU has little appetite to try and sanction Russia. On the other hand, US appears to be pushing for conflict as a distraction from the disastrous domestic policy and because accepting Russian demands would be seen as weakness. This is already driving a serious wedge within NATO. Russia will continue to apply pressure by doing military exercises within its borders, and negotiating with western powers. France, Italy, and Germany are already having direct talks with Russia and this is the most likely path towards resolving the issue.
Russia invading Ukraine would be counter to their goals as it would actually help unite NATO against them. There is no conceivable benefit to Russia from fighting a war in Ukraine. It’s also worth noting that Russian media hasn’t talked about any war, and typically countries prepare their public for a war when they’re planning on having one.
The only scenario Russia has stated that it would engage militarily in Ukraine would be if Ukraine invaded Donbas. Ukraine has been ignoring its Minsk agreement commitments failing to grant autonomy to Donetsk and Luhansk, and has been engaging in committing war crimes in these regions by attacking water supply and civilian targets.
Donbas is an autonomous region that separated from Ukraine. Funny how westerners only believe in people’s right for self determination when it suits them.
You mean like how you paint the Maidan Revolution as a NATO conspiracy? Those people taught the world how to protest. And less than a year later both protester and police where shoulder to shoulder in foxholes, getting shelled by Russian artillery. Self determination when it suits you, eh?
The fact that the coup was funded and orchestrated by US is a well documented fact. Donbas wants independence and Ukraine even signed the Minsk agreement to grant them independence. Stop trying to rewrite history you sad little troll.
Well documented by who? Compare the weak Russian funded anti-NATO “protests” with the raging tire-burning city-wide revolution that was the Maidan. I saw thousands of people wearing helmets the Nazis dropped when they fled Ukraine. Is US pysops that much more capable than their Russian counterparts? Or perhaps, labeling genuine popular movements as NATO conspiracies is the standard Russian party line.
NATO being able to put nukes in Ukraine would mean that they could reach Moscow in five minutes. This is a red line for Russia.
Serious question: why should Ukraine be a red line when NATO could already put nuclear weapons in Latvia, which is about the same distance from Moscow?
What Russia is rightly concerned about is the fact that NATO has been relentlessly expanding to the east.
At the same time, Russia is itself responsible for those countries joining. NATO is not an expansionist body. It is a treaty organization where smaller countries that feel threatened by Russian interference have sought refuge. Russia’s recent imperialism in Georgia and Ukraine and a longer history of imperialist tendencies has pushed countries to join to avoid being under Russia’s thumb.
How exactly is Russia responsible for those countries joining? Meanwhile, NATO is absolutely an expansionist body as very clearly demonstrated by its non stop expansion for the past 30 years. Russia was perfectly fine with Georgia an Ukraine doing their thing until NATO started running coups in those countries. You managed to reverse the cause and effect here.
It is a very serious situation, and there is a real risk of a conflict breaking out. I just don’t see how it would be in Russia’s or Europe’s interest for things to go that way. On the other hand, US directly benefits from a war in Ukraine. This is a fantastic article providing some useful background on why US is escalating tensions.
your comment is clearly formulated in a way so that my reply to it should give my reasons why i believe russia is likely to invade ukraine, which isn’t bad in any way of course (formulation, not invasion), but, i’m afraid there’s not much i can offer besides the existing satellite pictures, convoy footage, articles and other news coverage, intelligence of other countries etc, which you no doubt have already seen
don’t get me wrong, i, more than anyone would like this whole thing to turn out to be a too-far-taken negotiating tactic for russia’s demands to stop expansion of nato, bc i have ukranian friends who are likely to get drafted, some of my closest friends in russia were at risk of being drafted even before this whole thing started, i myself could get drafted in the event of a war
i would be really happy to be able to look back at this comment in a year and laugh at how ridiculous this whole thing was, but, one thing we’ve learned is that we’ll never fail to be surprised by the kind of fucked up shit a crazy, nationalistic autocrat with zero oversight catering to a nationalistic population can do…
First, let’s establish some context here. What Russia is rightly concerned about is the fact that NATO has been relentlessly expanding to the east. They’ve now given NATO an ultimatum that it has to roll back and comply with the original security guarantees that were given after USSR dissolved. The threat to Russia is real and should not be understated. NATO being able to put nukes in Ukraine would mean that they could reach Moscow in five minutes. This is a red line for Russia. All the NATO members have already stated that there is no prospects of Ukraine joining NATO or EU in the foreseeable future. This precludes any reason for Russia to act.
Russia has also never once said that it plans to invade Ukraine. The troops you’re talking about are stationed in their barracks. Likewise, France, Germany, and even Ukraine are saying that there is no Russian invasion happening.
So far, the only countries insisting that there is some imminent invasion are US and UK. And the country that’s been most damaged by these claims is Ukraine since all the investors are now pulling out leading to the economy crashing. This is the primary reason Ukrainian government has now broken with the US narrative.
Russia is achieving its goals without any need to invade Ukraine. Europe has absolutely no interest in having a full out war in Ukraine, and it’s also heavily dependent on Russian gas and oil meaning that EU has little appetite to try and sanction Russia. On the other hand, US appears to be pushing for conflict as a distraction from the disastrous domestic policy and because accepting Russian demands would be seen as weakness. This is already driving a serious wedge within NATO. Russia will continue to apply pressure by doing military exercises within its borders, and negotiating with western powers. France, Italy, and Germany are already having direct talks with Russia and this is the most likely path towards resolving the issue.
Russia invading Ukraine would be counter to their goals as it would actually help unite NATO against them. There is no conceivable benefit to Russia from fighting a war in Ukraine. It’s also worth noting that Russian media hasn’t talked about any war, and typically countries prepare their public for a war when they’re planning on having one.
The only scenario Russia has stated that it would engage militarily in Ukraine would be if Ukraine invaded Donbas. Ukraine has been ignoring its Minsk agreement commitments failing to grant autonomy to Donetsk and Luhansk, and has been engaging in committing war crimes in these regions by attacking water supply and civilian targets.
NATO doesn’t invade countries. This is a threat to their geopolitical interests, not a direct threat.
You can whatabout your way and compare them to America acting on their interests, but that just makes them the same as America, not better.
Tell that to Yugoslavia, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq.
Huh. Donbas is a part of Ukraine. So Russia will invade Ukraine if it “invades” Ukraine? Nice reasoning.
Donbas is an autonomous region that separated from Ukraine. Funny how westerners only believe in people’s right for self determination when it suits them.
You mean like how you paint the Maidan Revolution as a NATO conspiracy? Those people taught the world how to protest. And less than a year later both protester and police where shoulder to shoulder in foxholes, getting shelled by Russian artillery. Self determination when it suits you, eh?
The fact that the coup was funded and orchestrated by US is a well documented fact. Donbas wants independence and Ukraine even signed the Minsk agreement to grant them independence. Stop trying to rewrite history you sad little troll.
Well documented by who? Compare the weak Russian funded anti-NATO “protests” with the raging tire-burning city-wide revolution that was the Maidan. I saw thousands of people wearing helmets the Nazis dropped when they fled Ukraine. Is US pysops that much more capable than their Russian counterparts? Or perhaps, labeling genuine popular movements as NATO conspiracies is the standard Russian party line.
😂😂😂
Serious question: why should Ukraine be a red line when NATO could already put nuclear weapons in Latvia, which is about the same distance from Moscow?
At the same time, Russia is itself responsible for those countries joining. NATO is not an expansionist body. It is a treaty organization where smaller countries that feel threatened by Russian interference have sought refuge. Russia’s recent imperialism in Georgia and Ukraine and a longer history of imperialist tendencies has pushed countries to join to avoid being under Russia’s thumb.
How exactly is Russia responsible for those countries joining? Meanwhile, NATO is absolutely an expansionist body as very clearly demonstrated by its non stop expansion for the past 30 years. Russia was perfectly fine with Georgia an Ukraine doing their thing until NATO started running coups in those countries. You managed to reverse the cause and effect here.
well, i hope you’re right in the sense that this entire thing is actually a negotiating tactic, however, i can’t help but still remain pretty worried
i guess we’ll just see what happens, bc we will probably have a relatively certain answer soon 🤷♀️
It is a very serious situation, and there is a real risk of a conflict breaking out. I just don’t see how it would be in Russia’s or Europe’s interest for things to go that way. On the other hand, US directly benefits from a war in Ukraine. This is a fantastic article providing some useful background on why US is escalating tensions.