This assumes that either the populace that would fight for a freer regime is in the permanent minority or that there exists no part of the populace that would simply not fight for either regime.
I seem to recall that ~40% is the magic number of strong supporters (not necessarily militant supporters) that the regime would need to effectively suppress dissent through violent and non-violent means, but that’s a half-remembered number that I cannot source.
~50% of an armed populace will fight for an oppressive regime. It’s not an effective way to deter governmental takeover.
This assumes that either the populace that would fight for a freer regime is in the permanent minority or that there exists no part of the populace that would simply not fight for either regime.
I seem to recall that ~40% is the magic number of strong supporters (not necessarily militant supporters) that the regime would need to effectively suppress dissent through violent and non-violent means, but that’s a half-remembered number that I cannot source.
And that number is based on what, exactly? Vibes? Revolution only succeeds when there is broad support.