• PugJesus@kbin.social
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    4
    arrow-down
    2
    ·
    1 year ago

    Man, I don’t know how many times I have to emphasize the circumstances of Super Tuesday in 2020 before people get it through their fucking heads.

    • Zaktor@sopuli.xyz
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      1
      arrow-down
      1
      ·
      1 year ago

      Maybe the reason you have to emphasize it so often is that other people don’t share your motivated reasoning.

      • PugJesus@kbin.social
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        2
        ·
        1 year ago

        “When all the moderates drop out and unite behind one candidate with mere days before the polls open, the progressives would need to do the same to have a chance of victory.”

        “lmao listen to this guy and his motivated reasoning”

        • Zaktor@sopuli.xyz
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          1
          ·
          1 year ago

          The moderates just had more votes man, before and after consolidation. Like I said to kick off this whole thread, even if Bernie got every single vote cast for Warren (not a real thing, at that time her voters’ second choices were close to evenly split), he’d still have lost. You presumably believe some bird magic would have happened if Bernie lost Super Tuesday by less, I don’t. He got his head-to-heads against Biden and pretty consistently lost.

          Maybe, just maybe, Bernie should have done more to attract Warren voters and/or more to encourage Warren he’d be a good candidate. What’s that phrase again? “You need to earn votes”?

          But let me tell you how Bernie can still win.

          • PugJesus@kbin.social
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            2
            ·
            1 year ago

            The moderates just had more votes man, before and after consolidation.

            If you think that name recognition isn’t a huge factor when multiple candidates drop out simultaneously with very little time before polls opening, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.

            Like I said to kick off this whole thread, even if Bernie got every single vote cast for Warren (not a real thing, at that time her voters’ second choices were close to evenly split), he’d still have lost.

            He’d have come out of Super Tuesday with fewer votes than Biden. That’s different from ‘lost’. In a vote that doesn’t happen all at once, as with, you know, the primaries, perceptions of being ‘in-range’ of victory make a big difference in turnout and voter motivation. Warren voters had Bernie as their second choice at a rate of almost 2-1, but I don’t expect facts to matter much to you, clearly.

            You presumably believe some bird magic would have happened if Bernie lost Super Tuesday by less, I don’t.

            Tell me more about how early success doesn’t translate into increased later support, I’m sure all of the primary jousting over Iowa will be thrilled to be dispelled as a money sink for candidates.

            Maybe, just maybe, Bernie should have done more to attract Warren voters and/or more to encourage Warren he’d be a good candidate. What’s that phrase again? “You need to earn votes”?

            “All the moderates drop out and unite behind one candidate, and the progressives stay divided, clearly this is a good strategic choice.”

            Look, if you want to simp for people who think nothing should fundamentally change, that’s your choice. Just wish you wouldn’t use bad strategic mistakes as a smokescreen to do it.

            • Zaktor@sopuli.xyz
              link
              fedilink
              English
              arrow-up
              1
              arrow-down
              1
              ·
              1 year ago

              He’d have come out of Super Tuesday with fewer votes than Biden. That’s different from ‘lost’.

              And losing by less is not the start of a rally. He’d still have lost the primary.

              Warren voters had Bernie as their second choice at a rate of almost 2-1, but I don’t expect facts to matter much to you, clearly.

              Fucking lol. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/theres-no-guarantee-warren-voters-will-line-up-behind-sanders/

              “Morning Consult, for instance, found that 43 percent of Warren supporters would opt for Sanders as their second choice, while 36 percent would choose Biden. And a recent Ipsos/Reuters poll found that Warren supporters’ second-choice loyalties were evenly split, with 47 percent picking Sanders, and 46 percent backing Biden.”

              Facts indeed.

              And even the Berner-truth view of Warren supporters is still not 100% and 100% is still not Bernie beating Biden. A 2-1 margin means Bernie gains a net of 1/3 of her support, which was like 10-15%. +5% doesn’t swing the election Bernie’s way. He just loses by less, which is still losing, not “early success”. As each election day came and went Bernie dropped further behind.

              Look, if you want to simp for people who think nothing should fundamentally change, that’s your choice.

              And there’s the Berner charm we all know and love.