There’s a very good chance of that, but the consequences of being wrong are too high.
That said, there is an I-know-that-they-know-that-I-know game involved. We might not be able to chance Russians nukes working, but Putin has to be wondering if they work, too. If he launches one and it fizzles, the whole world will cheer NATO on while obliterate Putin’s regime in a conventional war. Therefore, he has all the more reasons to not launch them preemptively and let the question hang in the air.
There’s a very good chance of that, but the consequences of being wrong are too high.
That said, there is an I-know-that-they-know-that-I-know game involved. We might not be able to chance Russians nukes working, but Putin has to be wondering if they work, too. If he launches one and it fizzles, the whole world will cheer NATO on while obliterate Putin’s regime in a conventional war. Therefore, he has all the more reasons to not launch them preemptively and let the question hang in the air.