It’s just posturing. Putin knows he’s in the driver’s seat now. He can do basically whatever he wants, so he can actually amplify his brio for the next six weeks, and then he can actually act on some of the threats after Trump is in office. As I’ve argued elsewhere, his goal at this point is likely to give an excuse and cover for Trump to exit NATO, which would dramatically open up his options and leverage in Europe more broadly.
It’s just posturing. Putin knows he’s in the driver’s seat now. He can do basically whatever he wants, so he can actually amplify his brio for the next six weeks, and then he can actually act on some of the threats after Trump is in office. As I’ve argued elsewhere, his goal at this point is likely to give an excuse and cover for Trump to exit NATO, which would dramatically open up his options and leverage in Europe more broadly.
That’s a frightening forecast, but not without merit.