I would bet only ‘globally’ before betting on ‘only the Americas’, and I would bet ‘unlike the fall of Rome’ before I bet on either.
If we collapse soft, British Empire or Soviet Union style, there will be suffering and a massive recalculation of international politics, but life largely goes on.
Of course, global geopolitics means there won’t be a total power vacuum. China & Russia waiting in the wings to tip things in their favor.
Russia has no hope of anything at this point except vassalage to the PRC. China is exactly what I’m worried about, though.
I would bet only ‘globally’ before betting on ‘only the Americas’
What do you mean by this? Why would the US be more likely to be hegemonic over the entire world than just the Americas? Their heavy-handed political interventions in Latin America are well-known.
Russia has no hope of anything at this point except vassalage to the PRC. China is exactly what I’m worried about, though.
Just because everyone overestimated Putin’s military at the beginning of the war doesn’t mean they’re not a serious power. While they may not be quite on the level of the US or the CPC, they’re still the 5th largest in the world and I think despite the war casualties, their military production and organization are stronger than they were before. Their abilities in information warfare and nuclear arsenal also made them punch above their weight. I think they will remain a global power barring some kind of major political or economic collapse, and in a post US world might be more likely to come into conflict with the CPC.
What do you mean by this? Why would the US be more likely to be hegemonic over the entire world than just the Americas? Their heavy-handed political interventions in Latin America are well-known.
Our power is built on global structures, not pan-American structures. Our meddling in Latin America is well-known, but if we collapsed, and my three choices were “The world goes in crisis”, “The Americas go in crisis”, or “Life goes on, like after the fall of the SovUnion”, I would number the likelihood as
“Life goes on”
“The world goes in crisis”
“The Americas go in crisis”
Just because everyone overestimated Putin’s military at the beginning of the war doesn’t mean they’re not a serious power.
Even before the Ukrainian invasion, every serious analyst knew Russia’s future was cooked. Now it’s just that they’re unambiguously turned themselves into a vassal state for the PRC on account of having dropped a full percentage of their young men into a meat grinder in the midst of an already-dire demographic crisis, experienced a mass brain drain, wiped out their economy, and isolated themselves from Western trade.
While they may not be quite on the level of the US or the CPC, they’re still the 5th largest in the world and I think despite the war casualties, their military production and organization are stronger than they were before.
Only by unsustainable deficit spending, and their production quality has dropped markedly since the beginning of the war. When you read “Russia has produced another 200 tanks!”, you have to remember that “produced” means “refitted old Soviet T-72s (which are good enough, mind you) stock”, not “made brand new equipment”.
North Korea is the third largest military in the world, you don’t see it dominating global politics.
Russia has wiped out a massive amount of its materiel, financial, and human resources in a war on its own border with a country a fourth of its size, wherein it still has not managed any major gains past the initial surprise attack three years ago. Its military is anything but capable of meaningful force projection at this point.
Their abilities in information warfare and nuclear arsenal also made them punch above their weight.
This much is true.
I think they will remain a global power barring some kind of major political or economic collapse, and in a post US world might be more likely to come into conflict with the CPC.
There’s no reality in which the Russian Federation, in any recognizably modern form, conflicts with the PRC. It’s like saying a Pomeranian is gonna rumble with a Neapolitan Mastiff - if it was stupid enough to do so, it wouldn’t be anything more than a joke to the mastiff.
I would bet only ‘globally’ before betting on ‘only the Americas’, and I would bet ‘unlike the fall of Rome’ before I bet on either.
If we collapse soft, British Empire or Soviet Union style, there will be suffering and a massive recalculation of international politics, but life largely goes on.
Russia has no hope of anything at this point except vassalage to the PRC. China is exactly what I’m worried about, though.
What do you mean by this? Why would the US be more likely to be hegemonic over the entire world than just the Americas? Their heavy-handed political interventions in Latin America are well-known.
Just because everyone overestimated Putin’s military at the beginning of the war doesn’t mean they’re not a serious power. While they may not be quite on the level of the US or the CPC, they’re still the 5th largest in the world and I think despite the war casualties, their military production and organization are stronger than they were before. Their abilities in information warfare and nuclear arsenal also made them punch above their weight. I think they will remain a global power barring some kind of major political or economic collapse, and in a post US world might be more likely to come into conflict with the CPC.
Our power is built on global structures, not pan-American structures. Our meddling in Latin America is well-known, but if we collapsed, and my three choices were “The world goes in crisis”, “The Americas go in crisis”, or “Life goes on, like after the fall of the SovUnion”, I would number the likelihood as
“Life goes on”
“The world goes in crisis”
“The Americas go in crisis”
Even before the Ukrainian invasion, every serious analyst knew Russia’s future was cooked. Now it’s just that they’re unambiguously turned themselves into a vassal state for the PRC on account of having dropped a full percentage of their young men into a meat grinder in the midst of an already-dire demographic crisis, experienced a mass brain drain, wiped out their economy, and isolated themselves from Western trade.
Only by unsustainable deficit spending, and their production quality has dropped markedly since the beginning of the war. When you read “Russia has produced another 200 tanks!”, you have to remember that “produced” means “refitted old Soviet T-72s (which are good enough, mind you) stock”, not “made brand new equipment”.
North Korea is the third largest military in the world, you don’t see it dominating global politics.
Russia has wiped out a massive amount of its materiel, financial, and human resources in a war on its own border with a country a fourth of its size, wherein it still has not managed any major gains past the initial surprise attack three years ago. Its military is anything but capable of meaningful force projection at this point.
This much is true.
There’s no reality in which the Russian Federation, in any recognizably modern form, conflicts with the PRC. It’s like saying a Pomeranian is gonna rumble with a Neapolitan Mastiff - if it was stupid enough to do so, it wouldn’t be anything more than a joke to the mastiff.