The government has already admitted that there’s been evidence of tampering for over a decade now by China, though how significant of a swing that has isn’t known. I’d like to think it was quite minor, but who really knows.

On the other hand, Russia is pretty famous for its botnet attacks on the US elections for a while now, basically early AI based attacks. Their fingerprints are all over twitter during the last several elections, not to mention the biggest driver of quite a few conspiracy theories.

This isn’t a case of “very likely”, but rather practically guaranteed. The question is whether the countermeasures will be effective enough or not.