A lot of people will disagree with me on this one. I’ve been a software engineer for 35 years now. I’ve worked at everything from tiny companies where I’m the only dev, to startups, to massive corporations with countless employees. And I’ve never seen anything like what’s happening now.

There are four factors:

  • H1-Bullshit. Never before have so many H1-B visas been allowed. And the number is only going up. For the uninitiated they’re work visas that cap the amount the dev can legally be paid and chain them to their job so they can’t quit. They’re horribly exploitative and bring down everyone’s paycheck.

  • The software already built is good enough. Organizations already have either decade+ old software solutions in place or third party vendors that provide those solutions. There will always be bug fixes and maintenance but nobody is building new software from scratch anymore. The stuff that already exists is good enough at what it does that it isn’t worth the investment to make something new. That means fewer devs are needed for writing that software.

  • Destruction of the public sector. A LOT of unemployed and experienced devs are about to be looking for jobs. If you have less than 10 years of experience be prepared for finding a job to become nearly impossible. Even if the next administration takes a different approach it will take many years to undo just the damage that’s already been done.

  • AI. I actually don’t think AI on it’s own will be terribly destructive to the industry. It’s a tool that will make devs more efficient and cause a slight drop in openings. But combined with everything else it’s just one more factor hurting the industry.

When people ask me how to get into software development I tell them not to bother. I encourage you to consider it as well. The golden age of IT careers is over.

  • Skull giver@popplesburger.hilciferous.nlEnglish
    51·
    5 days ago

    If you’re in the US, you’re probably right. After the cancerous growth VC companies dumped the unused software people they hired for no reason other than paper growth, the market showed it’s not as desaturated as statistics would make it seem.

    On the other hand:

    • H1-B is a political tool, and I doubt that visa still exists by the end of the year. Plus, the people coming in on H1-B visas are still software developers. They’re just from another country.

    • The software already built is good enough

      I have worked at several companies whose terrible, buggy software sold like hot cakes because the competitors were even worse. General consumer software and apps may be pretty saturated, but B2B is an unending race to the bottom, racing for “better than before without being much more expensive”.

    • Destruction of the public sector

      Helps not to be American. Or if you are, look for software jobs in defence.

    • AI is going to change the industry for sure. Lots of dumb framework copy/pasting jobs are going to disappear, but among the mess people with actual knowledge are going to be incredibly valuable.

    I do expect programmer careers to start paying out significantly less over the coming times, but mostly if you’re used to the ridiculously high wages software development pays in the US.

    I’ve found a new software dev job within biking distance in less than three weeks, after submitting my CV a total of three times. The B2B sector is still growing.

    • Taldan@lemmy.worldEnglish
      5·
      5 days ago

      What’s your basis for expecting H1-B to no longer exist? Elon Musk is arguable one of the most powerful people in American politics. His companies rely heavily on H1-B visas. He has recently publicly called for them to be more than doubled

      • Skull giver@popplesburger.hilciferous.nlEnglish
        3·
        5 days ago

        H1-B is a great boon for the American economy and it’d be absolutely idiotic to get rid of it, but the current American government runs on a platform of xenophobia, racism, and plain lies. They’re stupid enough to kick out all the illegal residents that harvest the crops and take care of trades, so I don’t see why they wouldn’t be stupid enough to end the programs that essentially bring in cheap, highly-educated labour into the country.

        I know Elon is profiting massively of H-1B, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be some kind of special exception for Elon’s companies. The current government is also getting rid of electric chargers along federal roads, while at the same time peddling Teslas at the white house.

        As for a source rather than a generic feeling: Project 2025’s handbook, basically a step-by-step guide of what the current American leadership is working on, page 150, mentions H-1B reform as a goal:

        H-1B reform. Transform the program into an elite mechanism exclusively to bring in the “best and brightest” at the highest wages while simultaneously ensuring that U.S. workers are not being disadvantaged by the program. H-1B is a means only to supplement the U.S. economy and to keep companies competitive, not to depress U.S. labor markets artificially in certain industries.

        Read to me like they’re trying to restrict H-1B to what it was originally intended to be: supplementing highly-educated labour where necessary, rather than allowing tech companies to cheaply import labour from poorer countries. Thing is, the US doesn’t need that much extra highly-educated labour in fields like computer science. When I see these people write down “reform”, I interpret that as “completely tearing down and replacing whatever was there with a new system”.