From a blind resume of QBs who is your pick for MVP?
| POS | Player | Adj QB Rat | QB Rat | TD% | INT% | YPA | AY/Cmp | YAC/Cmp | %AirY | %YAC | OnTgt% | BadThr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB1 | >!C.J. Stroud!< | 117.82 | 102.9 | 5.0% | 0.4% | 8.1 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 54.7% | 45.3% | 67.7% | 19.7% |
| QB2 | >!R.Wilson!< | 117.61 | 101.7 | 6.9% | 1.7% | 6.9 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 49.5% | 50.5% | 70.4% | 13.3% |
| QB3 | >!Bock Purdy!< | 116.63 | 105.4 | 5.4% | 2.2% | 9.1 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 54.2% | 45.8% | 72.8% | 17.0% |
| QB4 | >!T.Tagovailoa!< | 113.23 | 106.4 | 6.2% | 2.3% | 8.5 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 52.4% | 47.6% | 77.3% | 12.0% |
| QB5 | >!Jared Goff!< | 112.65 | 96.4 | 4.1% | 1.7% | 7.4 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 54.4% | 45.6% | 77.8% | 13.3% |
| QB6 | >!D.Prescott!< | 110.50 | 100.7 | 4.9% | 1.9% | 7.6 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 53.4% | 46.6% | 83.4% | 10.9% |
| QB7 | >!Josh Allen!< | 109.92 | 99.6 | 5.6% | 2.8% | 7.5 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 55.4% | 44.6% | 77.8% | 13.0% |
| QB8 | >!Jalen Hurts!< | 109.29 | 97 | 4.9% | 2.6% | 7.7 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 57.1% | 42.9% | 76.1% | 11.5% |
| QB9 | >!P.Mahomes!< | 108.81 | 96.7 | 5.1% | 2.4% | 7.3 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 42.3% | 57.7% | 78.7% | 11.1% |
| QB10 | >!L.Jackson!< | 108.36 | 100.8 | 3.6% | 1.2% | 7.7 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 54.9% | 45.1% | 73.9% | 14.2% |
| QB11 | >!J.Herbert!< | 107.82 | 97.3 | 4.6% | 1.4% | 7.2 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 50.1% | 49.9% | 75.9% | 15.2% |
| QB12 | >!T.Lawrence!< | 105.04 | 93.6 | 3.3% | 1.5% | 7.1 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 53.7% | 46.3% | 78.2% | 15.5% |
Keep in mind, this is just for fun.
Obviously stats in a vacuum are not a be-all, end-all.
And no rushing contributions are counted, which would also alter the results.
Guide:
- Adj QB Rat = QB Rating taking away Spikes, Throwaways, Drops, or passes knocked down at the LOS.
- AY/Cmp = Air Yards Per Completion
- YAC/Cmp = YAC Per Completion
- %AirY = Percentage of Passing Yards from Air Yards
- %YAC = Percentage of Passing Yards from YAC
- OnTgt% = On Target% Per Attempt, minus Spikes & Throwaways
- BadThr% = Bad Throw% Per Attempt, minus Spikes & Throwaways
While I applaud the effort that went into this post, the stats you chose to use are… not great.
QB rating is a bad stat, for a variety of reasons. Adjusting it by removing spikes is good, but that’s a very minor improvement to a bad stat. Removing knocked down passes and throwaways is bizarre, and might make the stat worse, not better.
On target percentage / bad throw percentage are useful, but come with the caveat that they aren’t adjusted for throw difficulty. QBs who throw a lot of checkdowns will do well in these stats, but poorly in actual performance. This is also one of the reasons why QB rating is bad; it rewards QBs for completing a lot of short, inefficient passes.
Separating YAC from QB performance is also very difficult to do statistically, and really requires game charting and/or individual grading (eg PFF) to be done properly. Does the QB deserve credit for a WR who breaks 3 tackles and takes a quick slant 60 yards to the house? No. But does the QB deserve credit for a perfectly placed post that the WR catches in stride and houses? Yes.
At the end of the day, you’d be better off doing this with some combination of EPA, DVOA, ANY/A, and PFF grades. All of these are better than what you’re using. And yes, PFF grades are surprisingly good; this is coming from someone that used to slam their methodology. You can read more about the value of various QB statistics here.
Note: when I say a stat is “better” or “worse”, I mean a higher/lower correlation with winning, and/or points scored, and/or future performance.