I think you didn’t follow my argument at all. It’s not talent. It’s luck and feedback loops.
There’s some really accessible books on statistics right now, including one written by Nate Silver, that consider questions on topics like why the Mona Lisa is considered by some the world’s best and possibly most valuable painting.
I’ve had drinks with several senior engineers and managers at Tesla. The gull wing doors that keep breaking? Elon’s idea. They initially pushed back, he insisted, then when they relented he didn’t like the design and so lent a hand and made it worse after not having participated in any of the design meetings leading up to it. Stainless steel cybertruck? Same deal. Killing off all of the brand equity associated with “Twitter?” Same.
In fact, Twitter gives us a view on the purest Elon, because he literally fires everyone who disagrees with him. Twitter shows us what Elon looks like when allowed to do whatever he wants.
But look: just start learning more about statistics, base rates, positive reinforcement loops, and such.
I’ve heard from an insider that SpaceX has an Elon wrangler whose job it is to keep him away from anything important when he’s on-site. You can point this stuff out to the man’s admirers, but you can’t logic somebody out of a position they didn’t logic themselves into.
None of those guys went from millionaires to richest billionaire in the world. I guess Elon must be more talented or richer than them?
I think you didn’t follow my argument at all. It’s not talent. It’s luck and feedback loops.
There’s some really accessible books on statistics right now, including one written by Nate Silver, that consider questions on topics like why the Mona Lisa is considered by some the world’s best and possibly most valuable painting.
I’ve had drinks with several senior engineers and managers at Tesla. The gull wing doors that keep breaking? Elon’s idea. They initially pushed back, he insisted, then when they relented he didn’t like the design and so lent a hand and made it worse after not having participated in any of the design meetings leading up to it. Stainless steel cybertruck? Same deal. Killing off all of the brand equity associated with “Twitter?” Same.
In fact, Twitter gives us a view on the purest Elon, because he literally fires everyone who disagrees with him. Twitter shows us what Elon looks like when allowed to do whatever he wants.
But look: just start learning more about statistics, base rates, positive reinforcement loops, and such.
I’ve heard from an insider that SpaceX has an Elon wrangler whose job it is to keep him away from anything important when he’s on-site. You can point this stuff out to the man’s admirers, but you can’t logic somebody out of a position they didn’t logic themselves into.