In this article, we are going to look into the influence referees and penalties have on a typical NFL game and season. First, all the penalty data comes from nflpenalties.com. If you would like to reveiw any of the data here, or data going back 10 years, you can do so on their site.
Let’s break this article down into 2 parts:
- What influence do penalties have on the game?
- What penalties are being called this season in comparison to pervious seasons?
If you would like to read more about the penalty research issues & fixes, the full article is posted here:
NFL 2023 - Referees & Penalties Midseason Report
What influence do penalties have on an NFL Game?
First we should try to use the data to determine the amount penalties influence the outcome of NFL games. To do that we are going to look at two charts:
- Win % by Penalty Calls Differential
- Win % by Penalty Yardage Differential
Let’s start with Win % based on the difference of total penalties called against each team. In the chart below you will see the penalty differnces , amount of times a difference occured, team records, & Win %.
Win % by Penalty Amount Difference
Look at the range from 8 Fewer to 8 More in the win % column. You will see almost a direct relationship between penalty difference and Win %. The less penalties called against a team, the higher its chances of winning. Outside the 8 Fewer to 8 More range we get into smaller sample sizes, so we are going to see more chaos in the records & Win % numbers
How about the relationship between Penalty Yardage and Win %, will we see the same thing there?
We have many small ranges in this chart so we are going to see a bit of chaos, but again if you look from 60-64 Fewer to 60-64 More range, you will again see a strong correlation between Win % and penalty yardage differential.
Win % by Penalty Yardage Difference
Therefore, the amount penalties called against a team, and/or the more penalty yardage called against a team relative its opponent, can swing Win % about 10% in either direction. Thus this +/- 10% influence is about the influence referees can have on any single game, assuming they dont go completely flag crazy against one team.
What penalties are being called this season in comparison to previous seasons?
The following chart will show NFL Penalties over the past 5 years broken down by quarter, offense, defense, ST, amount of penalties and penalty yardage. As you can see, if we project out the 2023 penalties, we are headed for the most penalties called in a season since 2019, and the most penalties called on the defense since 2020. So it is fair to say, based on the projections, that referees are having more of an influence in 2023 than they have had since at least 2020.
If they are calling more penalties, what kind of penalties are the calling more of & when are they calling them?
This is the sticky wicket. Different penalties have different punishments. All are punished by yardage, but some grant automatic first downs. However, automatic 1st down penalties are the drive changers. When they are taking place late in a game, it is going to appear as though, and in fact it actually may be, a game that is unduly influenced by penalties.
Look a the amount of penalties called in the 4th quarter thus far in 2023(445). This projects out to about 900 4th quarter penalties in 2023, which again would be the most in the 4th quarter since 2019.
The real damning information comes in form of the following charts. The first is Automatic First Down Passing Penalties FOR each team. In this chart the team listed is the beneficiary of an automatic 1st down penalty via the 4 main types of defensive passing penalties: Defensive Holding, Defensive Pass Interference, Illegal Contact, & Roughing the Passer.
As we can see, Tennessee has benefitted the most and Chicago has benefitted the least. And there is a large difference between teams that benefitted most vs teams that have benefitted least.
Automatic 1st Down Penalties FOR
Here is the same chart but now we are looking at automatic 1st penalties AGAINST each team
Automatic 1st Down Penalties AGAINST
Below is a chart showing NET automatic 1st down penalties by team(FOR - AGAINST). It is sorted from team most punished to most helped. Since all these penalties come with auto 1st down, the Total column shows the amount of free 1st downs a team has given away(negative#) or gained(positive #).
NFL 2023 NET automatic first down penalties
Now I am simply going to repost one chart with 2022 and extrapolated 2023 data. This should allow us to see changes in amount/type of calls between 2022 & 2023.
Automatic First Down Penalty Calls 2022 vs 2023
So in 2022, there were 610 of these types of penalties called against the defense for a total of 6529 yards.
In 2023, there are projected to be 695 types of these penalties called for a total of 7348 yards.
The changes:
- Total calls - up from 2.24 calls to 2.56 calls, an increase of 13.95%
- Defensive Holding calls - Down 10.87%
- Defensive Pass Interfence calls - Up 27.98%
- Illegal Contact calls - Up 26.30%
- Roughing the Passer calls - Up 27.82%
So while one of the 4 calls is showing a decrease of just under 11%, it is the least damaging penalty(along with Illegal Contact) among the four. Meanwhile, the most damaging types of calls, Pass Interference & Roughing the Passer are both up nearly 28%(as is illegal contact). Essentially all the referees have done is changed a few of the defensive holding calls into illegal contact calls. While at the same time throwing a fairly massive increase of supremely damaging defensive penalties.
And if we simply combine this information, with the information about 4th quarter penalties being up, it means the referees are throwing more of the most damaging types of defensive passing penalties in 2023 than they have since at least 2020. By doing this they are going to put there influence on games at the very edges of that +/- 10%, as opposed to having less influence over outcomes this year.
Enjoy your football Sunday & best of luck to your team. They may need it.
Whatever man as a refs fan this has been their best year yet. Definitely see them making it to the big one and fucking up some major calls this year
You mention a ten percent impact by officials. Can we put that into perspective. Like for example how much percentage is home field or not having a turn over or a 100 yard rusher etc.
I can try. Here is a poorly formatted chart that converts point spreads into win%. Note that a 3 point favorite is considered to have 59.4% win %. link to chart https://www.boydsbets.com/nfl-spread-to-moneyline-conversion/
Home field advantage is often calculated as 3 points. So if we take that concept one step further down the line…
If referees were influencing games at around the +/-10% mark, they would be roughly adding or subtracting 3 points to the final score.
Point Spread Fav Win % Fav ML Dog Win % Dog ML
0 50.00% -100 50.00% +100
0.5 50.00% -100 50.00% +100
1 51.30% -105 48.80% +105
1.5 52.50% -111 47.50% +111
2 53.50% -115 46.50% +115
2.5 54.50% -120 45.50% +120
3 59.40% -146 40.60% +146
3.5 64.30% -180 35.70% +180
4 65.80% -192 34.20% +192
Win percentage is one interesting metric, but correlating calls-to-WP seems convoluted… fraught with the potential to identify correlation without causation. Could you take the before-and-after outcomes, and look at the change in that play’s EPA or instantaneous WP?
For instance, a sack on 3rd down in the red zone turns the EPA (4th down, ~20 yards out) into a solid +2.5 points – there will be a FG and a change of possession – but if that sack is overturned by roughing, it turns into basically first and goal, an EPA of +6.0 (TD likely). That’s a single call, pure judgment. Deep-ball DPI is another one in the same category.
Those high-leverage calls make the game no fun for either team – it robs the winner of believing they were victorious through skill, and robs the loser of any hope that skill could have won the day.
So many questions.
Correlations between certain crews and certain teams? Or game script (eg crew gets flag happy when margin between two teams reaches certain number). Or timing (eg more at end of game? More flags if game length unusually short so they can fill tv slot).
Hochulli is sketchy in my gut.
Can I get a “too long and I’m too dumb for this level of rocket surgery physics” version?
Bad teams are more likely to commit penalties. Penalties are detrimental. This graph is intended to try and push the blame on the referees because it’s easier than admitting that bad teams play bad football.
Gods work
Yet isn’r scoring is down?
The simple question to ask on RTP is how many QBs suffered injuries on hits that were (or should have been) penalties? The answer should tell us if the league has gone to far.
Ok but here’s a fundamental question:
Is this a change in referring or a change in playing style / ability? Is there a way to determine, empirically, if players are actually committing penalties and an increased rate - as opposed to simply being called for more penalties?
Also, are there teams that are just actually more disciplined and commit fewer penalties?
And one final question, only semi-related:
WHY DO DBs WEAR BRIGHT-COLORED GLOVES??? If you wanna get away with holding, don’t wear bright yellow gloves!!
This is Vegas’s influence
The league is being very soft on Jacksonville.
Nitpick: your third image’s “Team Percentage” column is in decimal. BOOOOOO!
Not a lot of Jags fans in here
I didn’t need stats to know the Bears have been screwed by the refs every week, but I’m glad they’re showing it anyway.
Until refs can call RTP correctly, QBs should just play under flag-football rules. Seems every weak we see multiple weak-ass RTP calls where the QB was barely grazed yet the refs call it like they were murdered.
This is all a distraction. The NFL WANTS us to complain about and blame reffing so we don’t notice why the games actually suck and seem so random: The coaching and players suck. We’ve got Tommy Devito and Clay Tune starting games. The Jets are one QB shy of being a contender, but their dick owner is buddies with Zach Wilson’s family so I guess flush the season down the toilet. Tua just takes fourth down sacks when they’re losing to preserve his stats, and he’s still going to get MVP votes. Someone recently hired Josh fucken McDaniels as a head coach. Texans let a chaplain run their team for a while. How many fourth down and clock management blunders have there been? This is absolute malpractice that a company so large can be run by such buffoons.