Herbert has played in 59 career games: 58 regular season games and 1 playoff game.

So in slightly more than 10% of his career games, the Chargers score 30 or more points and lose. Those specific games were:

  • 10-4-2020 31-38 loss to TB
  • 11-1-2020 30-31 loss to DEN
  • 1-9-2022 32-35 loss to LV
  • 1-14-2023 30-31 loss to JAX (playoff)
  • 9-10-2023 34-36 loss to MIA
  • 11-12-2023 38-41 loss to DET

This is obviously not accounting for defensive scores, short fields, etc. but is instead just a simple observation.

For comparison’s sake, I looked at Tom Brady. He’s played a long time, right? So surely he would have a bunch of these games, too.

Brady played in 383 career games: 335 regular season games and 48 playoff games. In those games, Brady’s team scored 30+ points and lost just nine times, or just over 2%. Those specific games were:

  • 1-21-2007 34-38 loss to IND (playoff)
  • 11-15-2009 — 34-35 loss to IND
  • 9-25-2011 — 31-34 loss to BUF
  • 9-23-2012 — 30-31 loss to BAL
  • 12-16-2012 — 34-41 loss to SF
  • 10-1-2017 — 30-33 loss to CAR
  • 2-4-2018 33-41 loss to PHI (playoff)
  • 12-9-2018 — 33-34 loss to MIA
  • 10-2-2022 — 31-41 loss to KC

I also quickly looked at some of the best current QBs just to get a sense of what Herbert’s contemporaries experience:

  • Joe Burrow has had 3 such games (all regular season, 2 in his abbreviated rookie year) of 58 games total, ~5%
  • Josh Allen has had 4 such games (3 regular season, 1 in the famous KC playoff loss) of 94 games total, ~4%
  • Tua Tagovailoa has never once scored 30 points and lost in 45 career games (though I don’t think he started/finished all of them)
  • Jalen Hurts has had 2 such games (1 regular season, 1 in last year’s Super Bowl) of 58 games total, ~3.5%
  • Patrick Mahomes has had 8 such games (7 regular season, 1 playoffs) of 103 games total, ~8%… these were pretty prevalent (relatively speaking) early in Mahomes career but are rarer over the last few years as KC’s defense has really emerged
  • Yesterday was Lamar Jackson’s second-ever game scoring 30+ and losing out of 84 games he was involved, ~2% (though he didn’t start in all of them)

In conclusion: Fire Brandon Staley

Also note: It’s late and I’m just counting these on pro-football-reference; I may have messed up the count or the math!

  • According_Floor881@alien.topBEnglish
    1·
    10 months ago

    I think this has less to do with Justin Herbert and I’m more so that the chargers choke and have a history of choking long before this guy was in the league.

  • Relatively_Cool@alien.topBEnglish
    1·
    10 months ago

    If you drop down to 25+ points rather than 30+ points, the win percentage disparity between him and the others is much bigger. He wins ~60% of those games and the QB average for the top 10 QBs is something like 80-85%

    • jrod41523@alien.topBEnglish
      1·
      10 months ago

      time to fire Staley, who is supposed to be a defensive mastermind head coach …. he’s clearly the problem

    • y_wont_my_line_block@alien.topBEnglish
      1·
      10 months ago

      Here’s another fun one. When. Justin Fields team scores 25+ points, the Bears are 2-6…

      Not sure what’s worse. That it’s only happened 8 times or that the Bears lose 75% of those games.

      • Acceptable-Story-83@alien.topBEnglish
        1·
        10 months ago

        The Bears suck in general and lose 75% of their games regardless lmao doesn’t matter who is at QB or who is the coach. Zero weapons (DJ Moore is hardly a #1), non existent run game, shitty O-Line, inconsistent defense, and Fields turning the ball over.

      • venk@alien.topBEnglish
        1·
        10 months ago

        That’s actually not that surprising, I’d bet many of those Ls are defenses going to prevent in the 3rd quarter .

  • Simmumah@alien.topBEnglish
    1·
    10 months ago

    Its like rewatching Stafford’s career. Staley NEEDS to be canned. That team has WAY too much talent to be 4-5 again. You could see Keenan Allen look so pissed off at the end before the game was over and it just says it all.

  • Comprehensive_Main@alien.topBEnglish
    1·
    10 months ago

    The Jacksonville game Herbert also has to share the blame. Herbert only led 1 scoring drive in the second quarter and that was a field goal. Herbert’s defense failed him but he didn’t perform well in that playoff game as well.

  • CunningRunt@alien.topBEnglish
    1·
    10 months ago

    Let’s see what the r/nfl QB_WINZZ QB_LOSSES meter reads today!

    [ Wins Losses are a QB Stat! | Wins Losses are NOT a QB stat!]

    …^…

  • cstrifeVII@alien.topBEnglish
    1·
    10 months ago

    People keep saying it and I agree… this is so reminiscent of the 2010’s era Lions with Stafford.

    • Otherwise_Awesome@alien.topBEnglish
      1·
      10 months ago

      I keep telling my friend this but he’ll point out that loss to the Jags in the playoffs constantly. I’m like, the Chargers defense went from 10th his rookie year to 23rd, 20th and now is 29th. It’s so HARD to win games in a shootout consistently.

  • Ravenlen@alien.topBEnglish
    1·
    10 months ago

    As an IDP player, I thought Derwin James was one of the best Safeties in the league. Nope, he just stops a lot of big plays because that defense is horrible and he’s often the last man to stop the play.

  • PigSlam@alien.topBEnglish
    1·
    10 months ago

    When the score was 24-24, I told my wife it’s too bad the chargers were gonna lose because they’re looking great, but they always lose those games.