Week 11 Predictions:

All the various official and unofficial power rankings have inspired me to start tracking my own rankings and predicting matchups each week. The column on the far right is based on a weighted average of each teams’ actual win percentage, their pythagorean win percentage, and everyone’s favorite concept, "regression towards the mean" plus an adjustment for home field advantage. Since I started keeping track in week 6, I have correctly picked the winner 63% of the time and Vegas is at 68%, which is pretty close. Unfortunately, in head-to-head disagreements with Vegas I’m 5-9 which is pretty rough.

As with most weeks, power rankings and vegas agree basically across the board. Only differences right now are MIN@DEN and PHI@KAN. My numbers and the power rankings are backing Dobbs and the Vikings, while Vegas goes with the home team Broncos. Maybe the Broncos have started to right the ship, but that MNF win was a weird one and Dobbs has been impressive with Minnesota thus far. Current line is -2.5 Denver, which basically means 50/50 plus home field. To me that feels appropriate, though the power rankings would seem to imply there’s a wider gap between the two teams.

The other disagreement is Chiefs and Eagles (spread is -3 for KC). Another coin toss albeit for very different reasons. My numbers agree with the power rankings that Philly is the slightly better team, but then home field advantage tips the scales in favor of Kansas City aligning me with Vegas. Either way, should obviously be a good one.

My numbers also have Green Bay as favored vs the Chargers, at odds with both Vegas line and the power rankings. Not feeling good about that one.