Before we can address the question, we have to address the criteria that is unstated but very obviously true. The order of importance of how MVPs are selected goes by the following:
- Your team has to be winning/playoff bound. (100% of MVPs in the last decade)
- You have to be a QB. (100% of MVPs the last decade)
- You have to be an extremely efficient QB. (90% of QBs were top 5 in EPA or ANY/A the last 10 years)
- You have to have enough bulk stats to back up your efficiency stats. (60% of them have been top 5 in Yards)
- You have to have fan recognition (be a big name/good story).
The only exception to the efficiency rule is Cam Newton in 2015, a year he had 10 rushing TDs.
The current leaders in EPA are:
- Purdy
- Dak
- Mahomes
- Allen
- Tags
The current ANY/A leaders are:
- Purdy
- Tags
- Stroud
- Goff
- Dak
Top 5 in yards per game:
- Stroud
Cousins(injured) Tags- Goff
- Howell
- Mahomes
(Dak is 6th, fyi)
Based off this, my initial thoughts are Purdy, Mahomes, Dak, Tags and Stroud.
Currently the top 5 for Vegas betting are:
- Mahomes
- Hurts
- Tags
- Jackson
- Burrow
This tells me that stupid bets are on Burrow, Hurts, Jackson and the smart money is on Mahomes or Tags. The real value? Purdy, Stroud and Dak at +2000-3000.
Of the 5 that seem most likely to compete for the award based on efficiency/bulk stats, here are their remaining schedules:
- Mahomes: Eagles, Raiders x2, Packers, Bills, Pats, Bengals, Chargers
- Stroud: Cards, Jags, Broncos, Jets, Titans x2, Browns, Colts
- Tags: Raiders, Jets x2, WFT, Titans, Cowboys, Ravens, Bills
- Dak: Panthers, WFT x2, Hawks, Bills, Lions
- Purdy: Jags, Bucs, Eagles, Hawks, Cards, Ravens, WFT, Rams
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t’s fucking asinine to think Mahomes is the #1 MVP candidate right now.
Feels odd to me to mention that 6/10 have been top 5 in passing yards and not mention 5/10 led the league in passing TDs, and 10/10 were top 5 in passing TDs.
Tags is short for Tongue The Viola
Looks like ATM Tua is the only one who’s in the top 5 for all 3 categories. But he doesn’t have any “big game” wins this year. He’s also got to go against the Jets’ D twice so his stats will look a little uglier in the next 5ish weeks unless he runs up the numbers against weak teams.
Still half a season to go so it’s probably Mahomes.
I feel like Goff would have a shot but we score to many rushing TDs. If we were more pass heavy he’s maybe on 19 right now and a MVP favourite.
Passtronaut is the dark horse
If Hurts wins Monday he’s the MVP
Not sure about accuracy of the other QBs’ remaining schedules, but you left out the Eagles and Dolphins on Dak’s list.
doesn’t this undervalue rushing?
Right now I’d say the best MVP odds are hurts Lamar and mahomes. Pretty much the criteria is be an excellent/ well known qb and be near the top of standings. Goff should be in the convo but I don’t think they like giving the lions that kinda press. I don’t think there’s any path for Purdy to win it because of how stacked that roster is. Purdy is not even a top 5 player on that offense, I think mccafery is a dark horse candidate as well, even tho they don’t really give it to RBs anymore.
Media has really convinced you that the niners have so many weapons huh. Our OL sucks, purdy is running for his life half the time. The eagles have a stacked roster too (better WRs and OL) and no one calls out Hurts this year.
Why does that tell you “smart money” is on Mahomes?
All this tells us is that everyone has long accepted he is the best QB in the league, so even when his stats don’t justify being the MVP favorite a lot of people will still bet on him, so Vegas isn’t going to drop his odds.
If anything this sounds like dumb money is on him.
bc you can get him at +300 right now
he’s the media’s favorite qb and a safe choice for the writers who vote on the award. if other mvp candidates have a single bad game or he has one great game between now and the end of the season those odds will drop drastically
he isn’t the most deserving choice this season but that hasn’t stopped voters before
Why is tua ranked higher than purdy even though purdy has better numbers and their situations are similar(great skill guys, bad O-lines, great playcallers)?
Tua has more TDs, Yards than Purdy.
Purdy had 3 rough games in a row, maybe only the bengals were getting back into contender form. Got outplayed by cousins. Tua lost to 3 teams everyone thought were going to the SB (it was the bills last good game of the year).
since nobody is having the clearly best year, its going to be one of the 2 qbs who lead their team to the 1 seed. though i have my doubts they give it to mahomes again even if kc gets the 1 seed, unless he goes on tear. if its still kc and phi on top at the end of the season, it might go to hurts.
I can only say that Purdy is not going to win MVP
49ers are too stacked + the mid season slump where he “only” had CMC, Aiyuk, and Kittle (which is a skill position group most teams would kill for).
This also feels like over fitting data to history - good QBs tend to have good advanced stats, but that’s a correlation, not causation, relationship.
If Purdy was a 1st round pick and not the last pick in the draft he’d be getting way more hype for shit like this.