🍹Early to RISA 🧉@sh.itjust.worksM to Greentext@sh.itjust.works · 10 months agoAnon's father is smartsh.itjust.worksimagemessage-square32fedilinkarrow-up1530arrow-down111
arrow-up1519arrow-down1imageAnon's father is smartsh.itjust.works🍹Early to RISA 🧉@sh.itjust.worksM to Greentext@sh.itjust.works · 10 months agomessage-square32fedilink
minus-squaresteventhedev@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up2arrow-down1·10 months agoIf the expected value is positive, then by all means you should play the lottery. Just bear in mind that the utility of money is nonlinear, so Kelly will overextend you - use something like max log-value and rederive. The only time this happens are either scratch off tickets that are horribly broken or rolling-jackpot lotteries where you can win what other people put in before you.
minus-squarechicken@lemmy.dbzer0.comlinkfedilinkarrow-up2·10 months agoEven if the math works out that the lottery would be EV+, you still can’t know for sure it isn’t crooked
minus-squaresteventhedev@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up1arrow-down1·10 months agoLotteries are generally regulated but corruption isn’t unheard of. But outside regulated state sponsored lotteries - it’s safe to assume it’s crooked in one way or another.
If the expected value is positive, then by all means you should play the lottery. Just bear in mind that the utility of money is nonlinear, so Kelly will overextend you - use something like max log-value and rederive.
The only time this happens are either scratch off tickets that are horribly broken or rolling-jackpot lotteries where you can win what other people put in before you.
Even if the math works out that the lottery would be EV+, you still can’t know for sure it isn’t crooked
Lotteries are generally regulated but corruption isn’t unheard of.
But outside regulated state sponsored lotteries - it’s safe to assume it’s crooked in one way or another.