https://www.wheresyoured.at/deep-impact/ And the companion piece on his blog.
What I didnāt wager was that, potentially, nobody was trying. My mistake was ā if you can believe this ā being too generous to the AI companies, assuming that they didnāt pursue efficiency because they couldnāt, and not because they couldnāt be bothered.
This isnāt about China ā itās so much fucking easier if we let it be about China ā itās about how the American tech industry is incurious, lazy, entitled, directionless and irresponsible. OpenAi and Anthropic are the antithesis of Silicon Valley. They are incumbents, public companies wearing startup suits, unwilling to take on real challenges, more focused on optics and marketing than they are on solving problems, even the problems that they themselves created with their large language models.
If they can convince the money hose that they just need one more OOM of compute bro, they can keep vacuuming infinity dollars. The incentive is obviously there for any amount of lying, but at some point, I assume even the most braindead investors will start asking around if this really is the only game in town.
Or maybe they wonāt, which would be an admission against the core tenet of capitalism, but this has been a crazy year, and itās only january. :/