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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: November 11th, 2023

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  • I appreciate the effort, but it’s a terrible metric.

    You have all this data and you decide that 3 factors are enough to rank receivers? Low volume doesn’t seem to bother you at all. Beckham at 10? That’s a hot take. But even within your own metric and data, it’s incomprehensible how you generate your scores.

    For example lets compare AJ Brown and Tyreek Hill:

    Hill (ngs) Hill (your score) A.J.Brown (ngs) A.J. (your score)
    SEP / Open 3.3 86 2.5 86
    Catchrate % 73.33 59 70.83 99
    YAC 6.2 46 4.8 61

    You may have used xYac/R +/- as yac data, which makes some more sense.

    Hill (ngs) Hill (your score) A.J.Brown (ngs) A.J. (your score)
    YACOverExpted 1.1 46 2.1 61

    But even if you chose xYAC/r +/- that’s 1 out of 3. Catchrate and Openness are still incomprehensible.

    Why didn’t you use, for example, yds/route run as an additional input, that’s a nice handy score to work with. Instead you’ve gone with separation, which is a terrible indicator of WR skill because it depends on how a receiver is covered, so there’s always a second person influencing the data. Bad receivers -> bad coverage -> easy separation. Good receivers -> better coverage -> harder separation. Elite receiver -> best coverage + game plan adjustment -> hardest separation. Not all seperations are created equal.

    I wouldn’t mind if your metric produced some reasonable results, but if you compare your results to dvoa or dyar for example, you’ll see how far off you are from those stats.