Yeah IDK about this one.
Chiefs offense is still 3rd in EPA/P vs the blitz overall (runs and passes) and 2nd in EPA/P on just passes vs the blitz. Also they are 1st in success rate on passes vs the blitz.
If the point is that the Chiefs are now longer slinging it down the field vs the blitz, sure. But I wouldn’t say they can’t “beat” the blitz. They’ve just changed how they do it.
EPA/P on passes vs blitzes
- 2018 0.455
- 2019 0.495
- 2020 0.479
- 2021 0.469
- 2022 0.190
- 2023 0.253
Success% on passes vs blitzes
- 2018 56.1%
- 2019 58.9%
- 2020 59.3%
- 2021 61.4%
- 2022 54.1%
- 2023 56.0%
Average depth of target vs blitzes (in yards)
- 2018 8.5
- 2019 7.5
- 2020 8.9
- 2021 6.9
- 2022 8.1
- 2023 6.9
Absolutely less explosive vs the blitz (EPA can be a proxy for explosive plays) but still efficient (success rate). And the less explosiveness is evidenced by the lower ADOT. But with lower ADOT comes greater YAC
YAC%
- 2018 58.2%
- 2019 57.7%
- 2020 49.8%
- 2021 57.0%
- 2022 56.6%
- 2023 63.2%
Wouldn’t call it being beaten, just doing it a little different.
First one since week 4 of 2022, which feels like an eternity ago given how many he had at the start of his career.