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Cake day: March 5th, 2024

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  • My guess is that you have significantly exhausted the extent of your interests and common interactions. It happens.

    That’s to say, for example, you’ve read, seen, discussed, etc. almost every sci-fi series in existence. There’s some you haven’t interacted with but you would have hit the new ones and all the significant older ones. In which case there’s really nothing left for you to consume besides minutiae/very small things (you ran the well dry).

    The same can said for interactions with people. You’re having the same conversations you’ve had before. Sure some of the specific details change but the core remains the same.

    If this at all sounds right, I’d suggest expanding your interests and social circle. For interests, I’d suggest something close to your current interests and look up the highest rated components of that interest to look into. Using the Sci-fi example, fantasy may be a good place to look and Lord of the Rings, Game of Thrones, Mistborn, etc. maybe be good places to start.

    For people, expanding your social cycle can be tough. If you haven’t already you can try and pair an interest of yours with a group that focuses on that. Example could be RPG gaming and joining a Table Top RPG group. Another option is taking classes in a new interest. You’ll likely meet new people with a similar interest as you. Another option is volunteering. There’s lots of organizations or mutual aid societies out there that would welcome additional members. That’ll give you new people to talk to while helping others (win-win).

    Regardless, best of luck with everything :)

















  • It seems like they are running out of time.

    They are running low on war material and are basically going from factory to front, but their production rate is 1/10 of their loss rate. We’ve already seen drops in losses (like artillery systems) compared to months ago, as they don’t have replacements, and have to lower the quantity they use.

    Their economy is imploding (interest rates just hit 20%). The non-defense industry can’t pay for their loans and 1/3 of companies are at risk of bankruptcy in the next 6 months. But they can’t stop the war or their economy (held up by defense industry) will crater into a deep recession.

    Their population is indifferent to the war, and doesn’t want to sacrifice more to help fight it. So unlikely to accept another mobilization or increased hardships.

    And Ukraine just got approval to use foreign weapons in Russia.

    So, yeah, Russia is probably a bit stressed at the moment.



  • They lost a lot at the beginning. Now they are left with what they can produce new and refurbish from storage.

    I’ve seen estimates of this being 300 to 2000 tanks annually (1 to 6 tanks daily). Since they are in a big push right now they are likely using up their operational reserves that they built up over months.

    So they can afford to lose more tanks than they “produce” daily, but how long they can keep up this attrition rate up is unclear. I’ve seen estimates that they have 3000ish tanks left in field/reserve/storage.

    However, it’s unclear what condition these stored tanks are in. They likely used the newer tanks and those needing the least refurbishment first, leaving the only the dregs (old and heavily damaged) left.

    Edit: added a couple clarifying words.


  • I’ve heard the Russian economy is overheating and is going to have major problems by mid 2025 (interest rates already 20+% and home mortgage rate have hit a peak at 40%). I figured that would mean that the Russian war machine would start having massive problems by the end of 2025.

    But the way Russia is pushing so hard, after a Trump victory and expected US support withdrawal and pressure to negotiate, makes me think they are trying to begin negotiation on Day 1 of a Trump presidency. Which I would infer means they are in a worse position than I expected and could have massive war machine problems by mid 2025.

    If Ukraine was then able to, and did continue, fighting until the end of 2025, they may start making major gains in the war against the broken Russian war machine. Putin may call a second mobilization wave to slow the Ukrainians but that may be counterproductive by causing general unrest and protestation against the war.