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  • 32 Comments
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Cake day: June 30th, 2023

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  • My poll really doesn’t like Georgia either! It has been begrudgingly moving them up with each win. But they drop 10 spots after losing to the #11 team (according to my poll), behind five 2-loss teams and one 3-loss team.

    My poll must not be impressed by their margin of victory (vs expectations) or something, even though that is a pretty small portion of the equation. Most of the rating comes from a modified ELO that only cares about win/loss.


  • Unsurprisingly, there was a lot of movement in my poll. Miami, Georgia, LSU, 💩sburgh, and Minnesota drop 10 or more places, with the last three dropping out of the Top 25. But this biggest loser is… Cincinnati (-27) after losing to WVU (more on that later).

    The biggest winners will be no surprise: GT, UCLA, WVU, Rutgers, Kansas, and Duke all jumping 20+ spots. My home team of WVU makes an surprisingly large leap of 23 spots to 41st place with their win over then #38 Cincinnati (5-3). I’m torn about this win, because I don’t want to give our AD any excuses to keep Neal Brown any longer than we need to…

    1. Oregon
    2. Indiana
    3. Notre Dame
    4. Ohio State
    5. Texas
    6. SMU
    7. Ole Miss
    8. Penn State
    9. Alabama
    10. BYU
    11. Tennessee
    12. Colorado
    13. Miami
    14. South Carolina
    15. Clemson
    16. Tulane
    17. Army
    18. Georgia
    19. Boise State
    20. Texas A&M
    21. Louisville
    22. Louisiana
    23. Washington State
    24. Kansas State
    25. Arizona State
    Full Rankings
    Rank Team Record Rating SOS
    1 Oregon (10-0) 1414 981
    2 Indiana (10-0) 1402 925
    3 Notre Dame (8-1) 1384 1001
    4 Ohio State (8-1) 1377 1034
    5 Texas (8-1) 1354 1013
    6 SMU (8-1) 1342 953
    7 Ole Miss (8-2) 1339 983
    8 Penn State (8-1) 1314 1039
    9 Alabama (7-2) 1305 1144
    10 BYU (9-0) 1289 926
    11 Tennessee (8-1) 1289 901
    12 Colorado (7-2) 1280 967
    13 Miami (9-1) 1266 958
    14 South Carolina (6-3) 1261 1088
    15 Clemson (7-2) 1252 997
    16 Tulane (8-2) 1251 890
    17 Army (9-0) 1249 778
    18 Georgia (7-2) 1237 1046
    19 Boise State (8-1) 1236 943
    20 Texas A&M (7-2) 1231 1036
    21 Louisville (6-3) 1223 1112
    22 Louisiana (8-1) 1205 850
    23 Washington State (8-1) 1197 902
    24 Kansas State (7-2) 1182 1001
    25 Arizona State (7-2) 1171 941
    26 LSU (6-3) 1165 1074
    27 Missouri (7-2) 1156 961
    28 Pittsburgh (7-2) 1142 973
    29 Western Kentucky (7-2) 1134 848
    30 Georgia Tech (6-4) 1131 1016
    31 Duke (7-3) 1125 973
    32 Minnesota (6-4) 1124 961
    33 UNLV (7-2) 1123 907
    34 Baylor (5-4) 1120 969
    35 UCLA (4-5) 1116 1162
    36 James Madison (7-2) 1112 833
    37 Vanderbilt (6-4) 1111 1000
    38 Navy (7-2) 1110 869
    39 Georgia Southern (6-3) 1107 957
    40 Iowa (6-4) 1106 993
    41 West Virginia (5-4) 1102 979
    42 Jacksonville State (6-3) 1102 833
    43 Syracuse (6-3) 1100 971
    44 Memphis (8-2) 1098 828
    45 Iowa State (7-2) 1097 970
    46 Illinois (6-3) 1090 982
    47 Miami (OH) (5-4) 1088 954
    48 Marshall (6-3) 1088 896
    49 TCU (6-4) 1083 946
    50 Virginia Tech (5-5) 1082 1080
    51 North Carolina (5-4) 1082 970
    52 Texas Tech (6-4) 1079 1018
    53 Michigan (5-5) 1072 1121
    54 California (5-4) 1072 901
    55 Arkansas (5-4) 1071 980
    56 Sam Houston (7-2) 1070 878
    57 UConn (7-3) 1070 823
    58 Boston College (5-4) 1068 991
    59 Virginia (5-4) 1059 1002
    60 Washington (5-5) 1054 1031
    61 Houston (4-5) 1052 1031
    62 Wisconsin (5-4) 1050 969
    63 Colorado State (6-3) 1048 884
    64 Ohio (6-3) 1045 828
    65 Cincinnati (5-4) 1041 1032
    66 Florida (4-5) 1034 1059
    67 Nebraska (5-4) 1030 1013
    68 Texas State (5-4) 1028 925
    69 Toledo (6-3) 1018 878
    70 Old Dominion (4-5) 1009 1001
    71 USC (4-5) 1003 1059
    72 East Carolina (5-4) 1003 862
    73 Rutgers (5-4) 1001 954
    74 Bowling Green (5-4) 998 886
    75 Kansas (3-6) 993 1033
    76 Liberty (6-2) 992 761
    77 San José State (6-3) 990 809
    78 Michigan State (4-5) 984 1056
    79 Maryland (4-5) 978 1045
    80 Oklahoma (5-5) 976 1083
    81 NC State (5-5) 976 970
    82 UCF (4-6) 975 1029
    83 North Texas (5-4) 967 915
    84 Wake Forest (4-5) 955 1016
    85 Northern Illinois (5-4) 953 905
    86 Northwestern (4-5) 948 992
    87 Auburn (3-6) 948 978
    88 South Alabama (4-5) 944 905
    89 Buffalo (5-4) 941 884
    90 Kentucky (3-6) 927 1104
    91 Coastal Carolina (5-4) 921 926
    92 Western Michigan (5-4) 920 882
    93 Utah (4-5) 910 947
    94 Arkansas State (5-4) 904 883
    95 Hawai’i (4-6) 900 900
    115 Troy (2-7) 776 895
    116 UAB (2-7) 775 966
    117 Stanford (2-7) 772 1064
    118 Utah State (2-7) 771 919
    119 Central Michigan (3-6) 768 884
    120 Wyoming (2-7) 766 891
    121 Air Force (2-7) 763 935
    122 Nevada (3-8) 762 967
    123 Tulsa (3-6) 759 841
    124 Middle Tennessee (3-7) 735 933
    125 Purdue (1-8) 725 1058
    126 Akron (2-7) 725 979
    127 Georgia State (2-7) 723 991
    128 UTEP (2-8) 722 864
    129 Florida Atlantic (2-7) 685 919
    130 New Mexico State (2-7) 677 892
    131 Southern Miss (1-8) 670 947
    132 Massachusetts (2-7) 666 853
    133 Kennesaw State (1-8) 633 908
    134 Kent State (0-9) 560 980






  • Lots of upsets means there is a lot of movement in my computer poll. Pitt 💩, A&M, Penn State, VT, Kansas State, and Iowa State plummet. Meanwhile Georgia is climbing the rankings, whether my computer likes it or not!

    1. Oregon
    2. Indiana
    3. Miami (FL)
    4. Notre Dame
    5. Ohio State
    6. SMU
    7. Texas
    8. Georgia
    9. Tennessee
    10. BYU
    11. Ole Miss
    12. Penn State
    13. LSU
    14. Alabama
    15. Boise State
    16. Pittsburgh
    17. Texas A&M
    18. Colorado
    19. Army
    20. Louisville
    21. Tulane
    22. Minnesota
    23. Clemson
    24. South Carolina
    25. Washington State
    Full Rankings
    Rank Team Record Rating SOS
    1 Oregon (9-0) 1405 982
    2 Indiana (9-0) 1392 908
    3 Miami (9-0) 1357 949
    4 Notre Dame (7-1) 1353 1001
    5 Ohio State (7-1) 1352 1080
    6 SMU (8-1) 1343 954
    7 Texas (7-1) 1313 1043
    8 Georgia (7-1) 1305 994
    9 Tennessee (7-1) 1281 918
    10 BYU (8-0) 1279 937
    11 Ole Miss (7-2) 1271 972
    12 Penn State (7-1) 1264 1014
    13 LSU (6-2) 1235 1019
    14 Alabama (6-2) 1234 1151
    15 Boise State (7-1) 1233 973
    16 Pittsburgh (7-1) 1232 969
    17 Texas A&M (7-2) 1231 1030
    18 Colorado (6-2) 1226 965
    19 Army (8-0) 1226 754
    20 Louisville (6-3) 1224 1083
    21 Tulane (7-2) 1216 915
    22 Minnesota (6-3) 1212 960
    23 Clemson (6-2) 1197 1012
    24 South Carolina (5-3) 1194 1080
    25 Washington State (7-1) 1189 947
    26 Iowa State (7-1) 1185 984
    27 Kansas State (7-2) 1182 977
    28 Syracuse (6-2) 1182 968
    29 Iowa (6-3) 1181 1001
    30 Vanderbilt (6-3) 1179 966
    31 Louisiana (7-1) 1153 848
    32 Arizona State (6-2) 1145 940
    33 Virginia Tech (5-4) 1142 1055
    34 Texas Tech (6-3) 1133 1001
    35 Western Kentucky (6-2) 1130 857
    36 Missouri (6-2) 1121 949
    37 Baylor (5-4) 1120 969
    38 Cincinnati (5-3) 1115 1032
    39 Georgia Southern (6-3) 1103 944
    40 Washington (5-4) 1102 998
    41 UNLV (6-2) 1096 926
    42 Illinois (6-3) 1091 985
    43 Jacksonville State (5-3) 1090 846
    44 James Madison (6-2) 1089 853
    45 Michigan (5-4) 1084 1115
    46 North Carolina (5-4) 1084 965
    47 Memphis (7-2) 1075 835
    48 Florida (4-4) 1074 1046
    49 Sam Houston (7-2) 1072 875
    50 Arkansas (5-4) 1071 987
    51 Duke (6-3) 1065 980
    52 Miami (OH) (4-4) 1061 974
    53 Marshall (5-3) 1054 956
    54 Navy (6-2) 1053 858
    55 Houston (4-5) 1052 1039
    56 Wisconsin (5-4) 1051 966
    57 UConn (6-3) 1048 845
    58 Colorado State (6-3) 1047 848
    59 Georgia Tech (5-4) 1044 1000
    60 UCLA (3-5) 1043 1172
    61 TCU (5-4) 1040 961
    62 NC State (5-4) 1039 948
    63 Nebraska (5-4) 1031 981
    64 West Virginia (4-4) 1027 982
    65 Wake Forest (4-4) 1024 982
    66 Toledo (6-3) 1017 862
    67 Ohio (5-3) 1014 873
    68 Oklahoma (5-4) 1010 1055
    69 Old Dominion (4-5) 1007 982
    70 California (4-4) 1006 946
    71 USC (4-5) 1003 1070
    72 UCF (4-5) 1003 1024
    73 Western Michigan (5-3) 999 873
    74 North Texas (5-3) 991 878
    75 Boston College (4-4) 989 973
    76 Maryland (4-4) 988 995
    77 Michigan State (4-5) 985 1058
    78 Virginia (4-4) 972 969
    79 Liberty (5-2) 966 783
    80 Fresno State (5-4) 965 872
    81 UL Monroe (5-3) 963 883
    82 East Carolina (4-4) 958 890
    83 Bowling Green (4-4) 956 889
    84 Arkansas State (5-3) 956 850
    85 Texas State (4-4) 955 925
    86 App State (4-4) 950 935
    87 Northwestern (4-5) 949 999
    88 South Florida (4-4) 949 938
    89 Auburn (3-6) 947 977
    90 South Alabama (4-5) 941 932
    91 Buffalo (5-4) 941 874
    92 San José State (5-3) 929 813
    93 Kentucky (3-6) 926 1107
    94 Hawai’i (4-5) 925 883
    95 Utah (4-4) 920 903
    96 Rutgers (4-4) 914 937
    97 Kansas (2-6) 906 1004
    98 Rice (3-6) 894 980
    99 Oregon State (4-4) 894 919
    100 UTSA (4-5) 894 865
    101 San Diego State (3-5) 886 903
    102 Northern Illinois (4-4) 873 906
    103 Ball State (3-5) 872 912
    104 Eastern Michigan (5-4) 866 829
    105 Mississippi State (2-7) 865 1025
    106 Oklahoma State (3-6) 860 989
    107 Charlotte (3-6) 858 1018
    108 Coastal Carolina (4-4) 844 913
    109 Arizona (3-6) 825 994
    110 Temple (2-6) 819 960
    111 Florida International (3-6) 819 835
    112 Florida State (1-8) 812 1129
    113 Central Michigan (3-5) 810 876
    114 Louisiana Tech (3-5) 799 778
    115 UAB (2-6) 795 955
    116 Middle Tennessee (3-6) 784 910
    117 Utah State (2-6) 780 876
    118 New Mexico (3-6) 776 788
    119 Troy (2-7) 775 897
    120 Stanford (2-7) 773 1080
    121 Wyoming (2-7) 764 873
    122 Nevada (3-7) 762 959
    123 Tulsa (3-6) 759 860
    124 Purdue (1-7) 752 1022
    125 Georgia State (2-6) 739 973
    126 Florida Atlantic (2-6) 732 914
    127 Akron (2-7) 725 960
    128 Kennesaw State (1-7) 700 918
    129 Southern Miss (1-7) 697 941
    130 New Mexico State (2-6) 687 861
    131 Air Force (1-7) 674 914
    132 Massachusetts (2-7) 668 838
    133 UTEP (1-8) 660 894
    134 Kent State (0-8) 592 984



  • Pretty much! It doesn’t have to be a computer poll, it can be just your opinion, or a hybrid.

    I do a computer poll, because a) I don’t watch enough games to make an informed ranking and b) it’s a fun exercise in coding and tuning the algorithm(s) for me.

    You also don’t need to share your ballot in the comments, but I also enjoy sharing and explaining what my algorithm is doing and if/where I disagree with it.


  • Here are the results from my computer poll. Oregon overtakes Indiana, and Notre Dame gets a big boost. Navy sadly falls out of the Top 25, but still on the bubble.

    1. Oregon
    2. Indiana
    3. Notre Dame
    4. Penn State
    5. Miami
    6. Texas
    7. Texas A&M
    8. Pittsburgh
    9. Ohio State
    10. BYU
    11. Clemson
    12. SMU
    13. Kansas State
    14. Iowa State
    15. Tennessee
    16. Georgia
    17. LSU
    18. Alabama
    19. Colorado
    20. Army
    21. Virginia Tech
    22. Ole Miss
    23. Boise State
    24. Washington State
    25. Tulane
    Full Rankings
    Rank Team Record Rating SOS
    1 Oregon (8-0) 1376 963
    2 Indiana (8-0) 1363 883
    3 Notre Dame (7-1) 1352 1024
    4 Penn State (7-0) 1333 980
    5 Miami (8-0) 1323 936
    6 Texas (7-1) 1312 1018
    7 Texas A&M (7-1) 1311 1014
    8 Pittsburgh (7-0) 1301 897
    9 Ohio State (6-1) 1281 1053
    10 BYU (8-0) 1279 927
    11 Clemson (6-1) 1277 972
    12 SMU (7-1) 1274 939
    13 Kansas State (7-1) 1271 975
    14 Iowa State (7-0) 1269 923
    15 Tennessee (6-1) 1269 920
    16 Georgia (6-1) 1265 992
    17 LSU (6-2) 1234 1021
    18 Alabama (6-2) 1233 1130
    19 Colorado (6-2) 1226 974
    20 Army (7-0) 1223 760
    21 Virginia Tech (5-3) 1210 1040
    22 Ole Miss (6-2) 1205 933
    23 Boise State (6-1) 1204 963
    24 Washington State (7-1) 1189 931
    25 Tulane (6-2) 1177 894
    26 Memphis (7-1) 1167 823
    27 Illinois (6-2) 1154 980
    28 Minnesota (5-3) 1148 932
    29 Louisville (5-3) 1144 1047
    30 Vanderbilt (5-3) 1144 979
    31 Navy (6-1) 1142 861
    32 Arkansas (5-3) 1135 952
    33 Western Kentucky (5-2) 1122 871
    34 Missouri (6-2) 1121 960
    35 Wisconsin (5-3) 1118 954
    36 Cincinnati (5-3) 1115 1006
    37 Iowa (5-3) 1113 970
    38 Michigan (5-3) 1112 1093
    39 Florida (4-3) 1110 997
    40 Nebraska (5-3) 1110 982
    41 South Carolina (4-3) 1110 1064
    42 Syracuse (5-2) 1110 952
    43 Arizona State (5-2) 1108 926
    44 Louisiana (6-1) 1108 829
    45 TCU (5-3) 1100 909
    46 Duke (6-2) 1099 908
    47 UNLV (6-2) 1098 914
    48 Old Dominion (4-4) 1091 997
    49 James Madison (6-2) 1090 863
    50 Baylor (4-4) 1061 964
    51 Miami (OH) (4-4) 1061 976
    52 Georgia Southern (5-3) 1057 942
    53 Washington (4-4) 1056 988
    54 Sam Houston (6-2) 1055 867
    55 USC (4-4) 1053 1078
    56 Fresno State (5-3) 1051 893
    57 Texas Tech (5-3) 1048 982
    58 Georgia Tech (5-4) 1042 996
    59 UConn (5-3) 1035 852
    60 Liberty (5-1) 1032 737
    61 North Carolina (4-4) 1032 993
    62 West Virginia (4-4) 1027 1033
    63 Jacksonville State (4-3) 1024 837
    64 Wake Forest (4-4) 1024 976
    65 UL Monroe (5-2) 1022 842
    66 Ohio (5-3) 1014 871
    67 Michigan State (4-4) 1012 1006
    68 Colorado State (5-3) 1011 878
    69 California (4-4) 1006 958
    70 Texas State (4-3) 1001 872
    71 Western Michigan (5-3) 999 865
    72 Marshall (4-3) 996 938
    73 North Texas (5-3) 990 886
    74 Boston College (4-4) 989 980
    75 South Alabama (4-4) 989 897
    76 NC State (4-4) 988 972
    77 Maryland (4-4) 987 986
    78 Oklahoma (4-4) 982 1104
    79 Auburn (3-5) 980 963
    80 Toledo (5-3) 975 855
    81 Virginia (4-4) 972 973
    82 Houston (3-5) 964 1024
    83 UCLA (2-5) 962 1173
    84 Arkansas State (5-3) 957 874
    85 East Carolina (4-4) 957 890
    86 Bowling Green (4-4) 955 918
    87 UCF (3-5) 939 1069
    88 Kentucky (3-5) 935 1066
    89 San José State (5-3) 931 815
    90 Coastal Carolina (4-3) 930 929
    91 Utah (4-4) 920 900
    92 San Diego State (3-4) 918 832
    93 Rutgers (4-4) 913 960
    94 Eastern Michigan (5-3) 908 805
    95 Kansas (2-6) 906 1015
    96 Northwestern (3-5) 903 1025
    97 Buffalo (4-4) 898 893
    98 Oklahoma State (3-5) 897 991
    99 Charlotte (3-5) 895 994
    100 Oregon State (4-4) 893 926
    101 Arizona (3-5) 889 1004
    102 South Florida (3-4) 887 959
    103 Northern Illinois (4-4) 873 896
    104 Ball State (3-5) 871 904
    105 App State (3-4) 866 939
    106 Florida State (1-7) 862 1147
    107 New Mexico (3-5) 858 817
    108 Hawai’i (3-5) 842 866
    109 Tulsa (3-5) 834 862
    110 Stanford (2-6) 824 1093
    111 Temple (2-6) 818 985
    112 Louisiana Tech (3-4) 816 739
    113 Central Michigan (3-5) 810 885
    114 Mississippi State (1-7) 805 1077
    115 Nevada (3-6) 801 921
    116 Rice (2-6) 801 944
    117 UTSA (3-5) 799 850
    118 Purdue (1-6) 797 1058
    119 Florida Atlantic (2-5) 790 888
    120 Utah State (2-6) 780 879
    121 Akron (2-6) 767 948
    122 Florida International (2-6) 754 874
    123 Georgia State (2-5) 753 942
    124 New Mexico State (2-5) 752 891
    125 Massachusetts (2-6) 727 830
    126 UTEP (1-7) 724 912
    127 Middle Tennessee (2-6) 720 942
    128 UAB (1-6) 717 998
    129 Kennesaw State (1-6) 707 859
    130 Southern Miss (1-7) 697 928
    131 Troy (1-7) 691 931
    132 Wyoming (1-7) 684 885
    133 Air Force (1-6) 676 870
    134 Kent State (0-8) 592 1004



  • My computer poll still really likes Indiana despite the relatively easy schedule and still really doesn’t like Georgia, despite their win against Texas (though it did help quite a bit).

    1. Indiana
    2. Oregon
    3. Miami
    4. LSU
    5. Penn State
    6. Notre Dame
    7. BYU
    8. Texas
    9. Tennessee
    10. Georgia
    11. Ohio State
    12. Clemson
    13. Iowa State
    14. Kansas State
    15. Texas A&M
    16. SMU
    17. Pittsburgh
    18. Illinois
    19. Missouri
    20. Alabama
    21. Navy
    22. Army
    23. Vanderbilt
    24. Ole Miss
    25. Colorado