Are these the same data-driven polling that have consistently screwed up election prediction for the past decade?
Nate Silver did a better job in this last one, but he said going in that they’d finally recognized that polling was broken, it they’d stopped relying on it so heavily and were considering other factors in their predictions.
Have you ever met a honestly “undecided” voter, who votes?
63.7% turn out in the 2024 general. Nearly 40% of Americans didn’t bother to vote. That was 66%, in 2020. There were an estimated 244M eligible voters in 2024; that means about 5½ million people who did vote in 2020 didn’t bother to get off their fat asses this time and vote. Trump won the popular vote by 2½ million votes. So there’s that.
Not that the popular vote means much; most Republican presidents who’ve won in the past quarter century did so while losing the popular vote, proving what a great system we have.
Anyway, I don’t believe in swing voters. Specifically, I don’t believe there are any significant numbers of people who actually vote who swing between the parties. The provable evidence of down-ballot voting speaks for itself. I have no doubt there undecideds; what I doubt is that many of them go to the polls.
There is one pretty clear data point that demonstrates their existence, that being people that voted for both Biden and Trump. And yes, I have met some swing voters, they’re folks that are usually not very into politics, but do vote. I find it silly to not believe in something that we have data on, at any rate. Nor do I think it’s very productive to focus in on any singular factor when multiple factors go into an equation.
I’m not sure that we’re living in rational times, though. There’s a concerted effort to divided the public, focusing fomenting discontent within the lower and middle class. I am increasingly skeptical of the idea that there’s a large group of people who listen both to Fox News and NPR and seriously haven’t formed a world view favoring one or the other.
And, again, time and again polling has proven unreliable. Lies, damned lies, and statistics? On the other hand, we have verifiable voting counts that show clearly that turnout was significantly - statistically significantly - low this election.
But now I’ve forgotten what we were originally disagreeing about.
Swing voters. And yeah, people that consume news probably aren’t going to be swing. It’s more often going to be people that don’t watch news, read articles, etc.
How can you live a life not being exposed to the news?
I learned, through the second Bush administration, that my mental health is far better when I avoid all political news when there’s a warmongering fascist in office. My wife insists on doing the “have you heard what Trump did today?” thing, and I scan past anything with the Orange Asset’s face on it, but it’s literally impossible to exist with any online presence and not be constantly bombarded by the shit that’s going on. Some of it for certain is because I’m not as quick to skip resistance content, so I still do read about whatever recent traitorous action is going on, but still. How? How can you exist in America and not be constantly exposed to politics?
I once met a young guy who, after doing a term in the Peace Corps, came back, got himself some backpacking equipment, and just lived in the national parks. We picked him up hitchhiking to his next place. Really peaceful, nice kid; he apparently lived on rice and dried beans, and some spices, because it was energy dense and cheap. Anyway, him I could see going long stretches without hearing about Project 2025, but anyone who lives in society? Just… how?
Everyone on the internet gets a different experience, it’s all custom tailored by algorithms to whatever they engage with. I do think it’s gotten a lot harder in recent years, at least partially due to algorithms prioritizing the most divisive content, but some people put a lot of effort into consciously avoiding it. We even see it here on Lemmy, with people asking how to avoid political content, not subbing to any communities that go into politics (which lets be real, is quite a lot of them, including all news communities) and blocking users for bringing up politics. These are the type that probably subscribe to the tech forums, but hate every conversation about Elon. They probably don’t have strong opinions on him either way, because they hate hearing about him and don’t trust most of what they do hear.
Then there’s real life versions too, people that just go to work, engage in whatever their hobbies are, and probably don’t make friends with anyone too interested in current events due to not really liking it.
Some people just like their heads in the sand. Ignorance is bliss and all that.
I wish it were that easy. If I blocked everything that popped political news, and everyone who brought up politics, I may as well just not go online.
I can’t even avoid engaging in it myself. But it’s much harder these days to tune it out. I find I have to avoid all news, lest one item be about more treachery, and I don’t want that.
Yeah I can’t do it either. I took a break after the election, but here I am again. lol I do find it hard to empathize with people that just don’t care about anything.
The problem is that I care too much. It’s not good for my mental health. I’m angry all the time - you know, I notice it in my Lemmy interactions. I’m much more aggressive and antagonistic if I’ve been using attention to the news; I’m just not as nice a person. And honestly, I’m equally an ass to people who deserve it, as people who don’t. It’s awful, and I hate who it makes me.
It’s not all news; just the current, recent crop. I can deal with the usual autocrat billionaires, most of the time; there’s just a limit to how much I can handle before I displace onto folks who don’t deserve my ire.
Are these the same data-driven polling that have consistently screwed up election prediction for the past decade?
Nate Silver did a better job in this last one, but he said going in that they’d finally recognized that polling was broken, it they’d stopped relying on it so heavily and were considering other factors in their predictions.
Have you ever met a honestly “undecided” voter, who votes?
63.7% turn out in the 2024 general. Nearly 40% of Americans didn’t bother to vote. That was 66%, in 2020. There were an estimated 244M eligible voters in 2024; that means about 5½ million people who did vote in 2020 didn’t bother to get off their fat asses this time and vote. Trump won the popular vote by 2½ million votes. So there’s that.
Not that the popular vote means much; most Republican presidents who’ve won in the past quarter century did so while losing the popular vote, proving what a great system we have.
Anyway, I don’t believe in swing voters. Specifically, I don’t believe there are any significant numbers of people who actually vote who swing between the parties. The provable evidence of down-ballot voting speaks for itself. I have no doubt there undecideds; what I doubt is that many of them go to the polls.
There is one pretty clear data point that demonstrates their existence, that being people that voted for both Biden and Trump. And yes, I have met some swing voters, they’re folks that are usually not very into politics, but do vote. I find it silly to not believe in something that we have data on, at any rate. Nor do I think it’s very productive to focus in on any singular factor when multiple factors go into an equation.
I’m not sure that we’re living in rational times, though. There’s a concerted effort to divided the public,
focusingfomenting discontent within the lower and middle class. I am increasingly skeptical of the idea that there’s a large group of people who listen both to Fox News and NPR and seriously haven’t formed a world view favoring one or the other.And, again, time and again polling has proven unreliable. Lies, damned lies, and statistics? On the other hand, we have verifiable voting counts that show clearly that turnout was significantly - statistically significantly - low this election.
But now I’ve forgotten what we were originally disagreeing about.
Edit: changed a word to mean what I meant
Swing voters. And yeah, people that consume news probably aren’t going to be swing. It’s more often going to be people that don’t watch news, read articles, etc.
How can you live a life not being exposed to the news?
I learned, through the second Bush administration, that my mental health is far better when I avoid all political news when there’s a warmongering fascist in office. My wife insists on doing the “have you heard what Trump did today?” thing, and I scan past anything with the Orange Asset’s face on it, but it’s literally impossible to exist with any online presence and not be constantly bombarded by the shit that’s going on. Some of it for certain is because I’m not as quick to skip resistance content, so I still do read about whatever recent traitorous action is going on, but still. How? How can you exist in America and not be constantly exposed to politics?
I once met a young guy who, after doing a term in the Peace Corps, came back, got himself some backpacking equipment, and just lived in the national parks. We picked him up hitchhiking to his next place. Really peaceful, nice kid; he apparently lived on rice and dried beans, and some spices, because it was energy dense and cheap. Anyway, him I could see going long stretches without hearing about Project 2025, but anyone who lives in society? Just… how?
Everyone on the internet gets a different experience, it’s all custom tailored by algorithms to whatever they engage with. I do think it’s gotten a lot harder in recent years, at least partially due to algorithms prioritizing the most divisive content, but some people put a lot of effort into consciously avoiding it. We even see it here on Lemmy, with people asking how to avoid political content, not subbing to any communities that go into politics (which lets be real, is quite a lot of them, including all news communities) and blocking users for bringing up politics. These are the type that probably subscribe to the tech forums, but hate every conversation about Elon. They probably don’t have strong opinions on him either way, because they hate hearing about him and don’t trust most of what they do hear.
Then there’s real life versions too, people that just go to work, engage in whatever their hobbies are, and probably don’t make friends with anyone too interested in current events due to not really liking it.
Some people just like their heads in the sand. Ignorance is bliss and all that.
I wish it were that easy. If I blocked everything that popped political news, and everyone who brought up politics, I may as well just not go online.
I can’t even avoid engaging in it myself. But it’s much harder these days to tune it out. I find I have to avoid all news, lest one item be about more treachery, and I don’t want that.
Yeah I can’t do it either. I took a break after the election, but here I am again. lol I do find it hard to empathize with people that just don’t care about anything.
The problem is that I care too much. It’s not good for my mental health. I’m angry all the time - you know, I notice it in my Lemmy interactions. I’m much more aggressive and antagonistic if I’ve been using attention to the news; I’m just not as nice a person. And honestly, I’m equally an ass to people who deserve it, as people who don’t. It’s awful, and I hate who it makes me.
It’s not all news; just the current, recent crop. I can deal with the usual autocrat billionaires, most of the time; there’s just a limit to how much I can handle before I displace onto folks who don’t deserve my ire.