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The Hyperloop was never meant to be built. Elon Musk admitted it was all about fueling opposition to California’s high-speed rail project so it would get canceled.
He never planned to improve transportation; he just wants to keep people trapped in cars.
https://newrepublic.com/article/174089/big-tech-watching-drive
#tech #transport #elonmusk #transportation #hyperloop #trains
But stocks always look at where a company will be, not where it is now. Traditional car manufacturers have been stagnating for decades, so confidence isn’t very high there.
If you look at EV sales, Tesla had a 68% market share. (in 2022) If an investor thinks EVs are the only vehicles that will really be around in a few years, that value may be justified.
Markets have gotten a lot of things wrong in the past 20 years since the amount of money in the monetary system is distorting asset values and causing bubbles. FTX and Theranos being two great examples, but far from the only ones.
I said this a few years ago but it’s becoming increasingly true now: If EVs become the hot new thing, I fully expect traditional automakers to come out on top. Particularly companies like Toyota who are really really good at building cars.
Thing is, it still isn’t totally clear that EVs in the form of the traditional automobile will be the best thing. There’s a good chance that all the major unsolved problems with them will cut the technology off.
It’s funny you mention Toyota, since they’re lagging particularly far behind even other traditional automakers when it comes to battery electric vehicles. (Some executive was biased against them or something, so Toyota’s spent the last decade trying to push hybrids and fuel cell EVs instead.)
I think that there’s a reason for it, and I think that that reason is that they’ve been selling battery vehicles for 25 years and they know full well that there’s going to be major problems.
The reality is that until maybe this year or the year before, these were expensive toys for the 1% to show off about how virtuous they are with their $100,000 sports cars that were saving the planet.
Traditional auto makers only know how to make the frame, suspension, and interior. Engine and transmission knowledge doesn’t help. You need to know battery management and motors instead.
What unresolved problems? 10 million were sold last year, seems like we’d have seen the problems by now.
Toyota in particular has been dealing with battery management and motors for 30 years. They’ll be fine.
Unresolved problems of EVs include extreme cold performance without a heated garage, battery degradation and the massive social, economic, and environmental consequences as people end up with useless used cars you can’t fix, grid problems in the event of mass adoption, and the realities of longer distance travel in a car that takes a long time to charge.
Unresolved problems of EVs include extreme cold performance without a heated garage
Diesel engines also have extreme cold issues solved by block heaters. Similar solututions already exist for EVs.
battery degradation
Parts on anything mechanical will degrade. This isn’t unique to EVs. Yeah you will have to replace parts on an EV like on any other car.
the massive social, economic, and environmental consequences as people end up with useless used cars you can’t fix
I think you’re underestimating people’s ability to adapt and learn how to fix new technologies. Someone that only knew how to fix saddles probably thought the automobile would never become a common thing because that saddle maker didn’t know how to fix a car engine as well as he knew how to fix a saddle.
There will be a learning curve as with all things, but people will figure out how to fix EVs.
grid problems in the event of mass adoption
We now have new tech for solar and wind that’s cheaper than other forms of energy generation. Energy infrastructure does have to be replaced from time to time, as demand grows we can increase energy generation and make improvements to the grid. The money save on no longer needing to have expensive wars to secure the oil supply will more than cover this cost.
realities of longer distance travel in a car that takes a long time to charge
It takes like 10 to 15 minutes at a fast charging station. Stretch your legs, grab a snack, some 'em if you got 'em, and you’re back on the road. Very much comparable to filling up at a gas station. Also remember that’s only for long distance travel which most people don’t do very often. For daily use it’s plugging in your car when you get home, which overall takes less time than having to make a trip to the gas station every week or two. So an EV will be even more convenient (and cheaper) than filling up at a gas station.
Yeah I get it that it sucks when technology you understand becomes obsolete. It’s just the way things go.
But stocks always look at where a company will be, not where it is now. Traditional car manufacturers have been stagnating for decades, so confidence isn’t very high there.
If you look at EV sales, Tesla had a 68% market share. (in 2022) If an investor thinks EVs are the only vehicles that will really be around in a few years, that value may be justified.
https://electrek.co/2022/10/18/us-electric-vehicle-sales-by-maker-and-ev-model-through-q3-2022/
That being said, I do think they are overvalued as of COVID. It became more of a hype train than anything else.
Markets have gotten a lot of things wrong in the past 20 years since the amount of money in the monetary system is distorting asset values and causing bubbles. FTX and Theranos being two great examples, but far from the only ones.
I said this a few years ago but it’s becoming increasingly true now: If EVs become the hot new thing, I fully expect traditional automakers to come out on top. Particularly companies like Toyota who are really really good at building cars.
Thing is, it still isn’t totally clear that EVs in the form of the traditional automobile will be the best thing. There’s a good chance that all the major unsolved problems with them will cut the technology off.
I feel like the major unsolved problems with fossil fuel powered vehicles will cut them off.
It’s funny you mention Toyota, since they’re lagging particularly far behind even other traditional automakers when it comes to battery electric vehicles. (Some executive was biased against them or something, so Toyota’s spent the last decade trying to push hybrids and fuel cell EVs instead.)
I think that there’s a reason for it, and I think that that reason is that they’ve been selling battery vehicles for 25 years and they know full well that there’s going to be major problems.
The reality is that until maybe this year or the year before, these were expensive toys for the 1% to show off about how virtuous they are with their $100,000 sports cars that were saving the planet.
Traditional auto makers only know how to make the frame, suspension, and interior. Engine and transmission knowledge doesn’t help. You need to know battery management and motors instead.
What unresolved problems? 10 million were sold last year, seems like we’d have seen the problems by now.
Toyota in particular has been dealing with battery management and motors for 30 years. They’ll be fine.
Unresolved problems of EVs include extreme cold performance without a heated garage, battery degradation and the massive social, economic, and environmental consequences as people end up with useless used cars you can’t fix, grid problems in the event of mass adoption, and the realities of longer distance travel in a car that takes a long time to charge.
Diesel engines also have extreme cold issues solved by block heaters. Similar solututions already exist for EVs.
Parts on anything mechanical will degrade. This isn’t unique to EVs. Yeah you will have to replace parts on an EV like on any other car.
I think you’re underestimating people’s ability to adapt and learn how to fix new technologies. Someone that only knew how to fix saddles probably thought the automobile would never become a common thing because that saddle maker didn’t know how to fix a car engine as well as he knew how to fix a saddle.
There will be a learning curve as with all things, but people will figure out how to fix EVs.
We now have new tech for solar and wind that’s cheaper than other forms of energy generation. Energy infrastructure does have to be replaced from time to time, as demand grows we can increase energy generation and make improvements to the grid. The money save on no longer needing to have expensive wars to secure the oil supply will more than cover this cost.
It takes like 10 to 15 minutes at a fast charging station. Stretch your legs, grab a snack, some 'em if you got 'em, and you’re back on the road. Very much comparable to filling up at a gas station. Also remember that’s only for long distance travel which most people don’t do very often. For daily use it’s plugging in your car when you get home, which overall takes less time than having to make a trip to the gas station every week or two. So an EV will be even more convenient (and cheaper) than filling up at a gas station.
Yeah I get it that it sucks when technology you understand becomes obsolete. It’s just the way things go.