The former president's guilty verdict in his Manhattan hush money case spells trouble for his campaign, according to recent polls.
  • hydroptic@sopuli.xyz
    71·
    6 months ago

    When broken down into party lines, 15 percent of Republicans think he is guilty while 64 percent do not

    Proving once again that the vast majority of conservatives are completely beyond help

      • bradinutah@thelemmy.club
        8·
        6 months ago

        They are loyal to the Criminal Orange Conman, not the US Constitution and the judicial system the Constitution establishes. They don’t care about truth and facts and they don’t understand how the criminal justice system, especially with a jury, is designed to get at the truth of a matter. The bar of beyond a reasonable doubt is very high and they don’t understand that. These people have not taken the time to educate themselves about these concepts and the truth about a public criminal trial. It dangerously erodes against the rule of law and our democracy. This crime was to influence the 2016 election and dupe voters. The Felonious Fakester preys on their ignorance and they let him do it to them. But what do you expect from an adjudicated rapist and his codependent fanatics who can’t face the music? It’s hard to stop when you’ve sunk tens, or hundreds, or thousands of dollars into a cause that you so firmly believed in. Populism’s a tough drug to quit.

  • Taako_Tuesday@lemmy.ca
    22·
    6 months ago

    I’m interested in comparison between the 2 questions. 15% of Republicans think he’s guilty, but 18% approve of the verdict. 86% of democrats think he’s guilty but 88% approve of the verdict. That means that for both parties, there are at least a few people who think he’s not guilty, but regardless approve of him being in legal trouble. I’d like to pick their brains and see what’s up.

    • snooggumsEnglish
      12·
      6 months ago

      Sometimes people are happy that a criminal who commits crimes gets found guilty of something even if they aren’t sure about the one they go down for. Or they just tilhink the system worked and he can always appeal.

      I’m sure there are also a chunk of people in that poll that think he is guilty but also don’t approve of the verdict because they think these charges are petty.

    • apis@beehaw.orgEnglish
      6·
      6 months ago

      Would put some of that down to people making errors with checkboxes, comprehension issues & trolling.

      But yeah, some people just like conviction regardless of their thoughts on a case.

        • apis@beehaw.orgEnglish
          2·
          6 months ago

          It would be very rare not to do so.

          Most poll results give the margins of error of the method(s) used. No idea if this one did or not, but 2% and 3% don’t seem dramatic enough to not be explicable by margin of error issues.

        • Fal@yiffit.netEnglish
          2·
          6 months ago

          What does that mean? You want them to just throw out data that they don’t like?

  • Pete Hahnloser@beehaw.org
    15·
    6 months ago

    YouGov and Morning Consult’s polls are outside the realm of “useful” in terms of political reporting.

    Thing about court cases is it doesn’t matter what the public thinks about a jury decision. That’s what elections are for; here, the determinations of exactly 12 people are all that counts.

    Here’s the one useful graf in the entire story:

    A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted between Thursday and Friday found that 5 percent of Republicans and 21 percent of independents said they are much less likely to vote for Trump because of the jury’s ruling. Meanwhile, 30 percent of Republicans and 13 percent of independents said the verdict made them much more likely to vote for Trump. However, the majority of Republicans (55 percent), independents (58 percent), and Democrats (58 percent) said the verdict didn’t change their minds on whether or not to vote for the former president.

    Given the narrow outcomes in swing states in 2020, that 5% drop in GOP support is much larger than it sounds. Like, more than 11,000 votes that will need to be “found.”

    That said, national polls are functionally useless for presidential elections on account of the Electoral College. All registered Republicans in California could abandon Trump without moving the needle on the election outcome; how that 5% is distributed among states and territories is the news, but with this sort of sample size, further breakdowns would have minimal or zero confidence.

  • GBU_28@lemm.eeEnglish
    9·
    6 months ago

    You can’t say “suffers triple…” in a headline! MY heart skipped a beat before I read the following words