As someone whose phone occasionally heats up

As for Lebanon itself, it will likely collapse before Israel does. The zionists likely plan to genocide everyone within the borders of greater israel.

the needless pessimism here is reaching such heights that I can’t even be sure if this is a joke or not, lmfao. i’m like 80% sure it is? is this a post making fun of how the doomers sound are they just that far gone?

Hezbollah has racked up so many Ws over the last year that it seems plausible that they could single-handedly doom Israel, hundreds of thousands of settlers displaced, the Israeli border effectively pushed back kilometers in Israel, the mass destruction of border surveillance, regularly striking targets with ineffective Israeli interception. But the second that Israel responds with a terror attack which is more-or-less a slightly more elaborate aerial bombing run with devices imported five months ago, suddenly the entire global socialist revolution is over and Israel’s borders shall span from the Sahara to the Caspian Sea, and Iran is a mere satrapy. it’s pretty incredible how American imperialism was collapsing up until this point, but suddenly they do a desperate terrorist attack which seemed to mostly harm civilians exploiting a supply chain issue for which there are several potential future solutions already suggested down below (inspecting/burning random samples of equipment) and now everybody might as well give up.

Cynicism is not the same as objective fact. Nobody here should rationalize their internal panic/dismay as some astute geopolitical analysis for the sake of appearing more “mature” or “world-weary”. If your predictions are untrue, you cannot then just be like “Well, the world sucks, so it was a decent guess that things were going to get infinitely worse”. No, your analysis was bad, and you should self-crit.

Or maybe it’s “Oh, well, you guys were predicting that everything would be fine and that magical rainbows would fix everything and that Ukraine/Israel would collapse in a week, so my analysis where I don’t have the belief is based in realism.” Nobody serious was predicting anything like that in any conflict. For Gaza, the understanding was that the tunnels would provide a safe haven from which to conduct a months or even years-long attrition strategy regardless of what Israel claims to control above ground. This has come true. For Ukraine, the understanding was that Russia was deciding to attrit Ukrainian and NATO forces rather than risk very heavy troop losses in big arrow offensives, and that this process of destroying the enemy army would take as long as needed and that the West was incapable of outproducing Russia. This has come true.

And, to make a bold prediction about how a war with Lebanon will go, just to pre-empt the people who will be like “You said that Hezbollah would instantly destroy Israel in a rain of missiles and that Israel would fail to get past the border!”: Israel will very probably manage to get miles, perhaps even tens of miles into Lebanon, but the tunnel networks would allow them to maintain massive pressure on Israel and after a period of weeks or months, Israel will be forced to eventually withdraw. Hezbollah may or may not decide to hold back on big missile strikes against Israeli infrastructure depending on the extent to which the rest of Lebanon is being affected. This is the Official 72T Prediction.

I mean Lebanon lowkey collapsed in 2019 and further devolved in 2020 after the Beirut harbour explosion. They have no functioning executive, their government is effectively non-existent, the state virtually doesn’t exist.

Well, yes, people believing their phones will work (not explode, that requires no customs checks) in russia and china are delusional in ww3 scenario.

of course the CIA can. look at what happened to Michael Hastings