Image is of a Hezbollah missile attack on a military camp west of Jenin.
The situation between Hezbollah and Israel is rapidly escalating, with massive bombing campaigns on southern Lebanon by Israel predominantly on civilians (as the tunnels in South Lebanon are mostly unreachable to the Zionists, just like in Gaza), while Hezbollah and its allies respond with missile attacks predominantly on Israeli military facilities. Israel is spreading an evacuation order to the residents of southern Lebanese villages while also bombing their routes of escape and civilian infrastructure, similar to a terror tactic used widely in Gaza.
Northern Israel is currently under military censorship to hide their losses, so we get very little information other than what the Resistance provides and what videos and images get through the censors.
I don’t know if Israel will dare a ground incursion soon, but it seems fairly likely in the coming days or weeks.
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Last week’s thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
So, if the IDF loses badly in South Lebanon what you think it will happen? We all know that if one day Israel collapses the IDF will shoot every israeli and then commit suicide, but I suppose most Israelis will return to their home (US and Europe) before that even happens. But I wonder how will Israel react to a defeat now? Either way, Bibi is probably going to get shot by some Israeli.
I think Isreal is lashing out with the terrorist attacks and assassinations in hope that Hezbollah will sue for a cease and they won’t have to do the ground invasion. I really worry about the nuclear option when Isreal is on the edge of collapse. I could see UN occupation and demilitarization of the entity. US refuses it’s participation in genocide and will not fund reconstruction. China takes on reconstruction in an expanding belt and road initiative.
Same, both that won’t happen. Even the zionists/conservatives know that, the more they attack Hezbollah, they more radical the group will become. And if Israel moves north, they will then also have to deal with the Lebanese Armed Forces, Leftist Guerrilas and other paramilitary groups attacking them.
I don’t think the US will ever let Israel use Nukes. The US will offer them to evacuate their entire country (Even though the IDF and Israeli society is always prepared to commit mass suicide in case of defeat, much like Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan) and probably a lot of Israelis will accept that. I can see the US and the zionists in the US and Europe financing terrorist groups in Palestine.
I also believe that if the two-state solution were ever actually implemented (it probably never will be, because it’s a stupid idea), it would first require major changes in the Israeli leadership (maybe an IDF coup or something). But it would have to be constantly enforced by UN peacekeepers, which would be a logistical nightmare and still wouldn’t stop violence. And even if Israel withdrew from the West Bank and Gaza. Most of Israeli society would not support it. I remember that when Rabin said they would start withdrawing from Gaza and the West Bank, the Israelis settlers said they wouldn’t and that they would create another Israel called the State of Judea.
I’m skeptical that the US could stop Israel from using nukes if a faction of ultra-fascists, with control over them, decide to go down with the ship.