Direct link to the study : https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.15.22277693v1
The analytic sample included 8,620 respondents… 6,768 [(78.5%) considered political violence to be at least sometimes justified]
[67.2% of respondents] perceived ″a serious threat to our democracy"
more than 40% agreed that ″having a strong leader for America is more important than having a democracy″ and that ″in America, native-born white people are being replaced by immigrants.″
Half (50.1%) agreed that ″in the next few years, there will be civil war in the United States.″
these findings suggest a continuing alienation from and mistrust of American democratic society and its institutions. Substantial minorities of the population endorse violence, including lethal violence, to obtain political objectives. Efforts to prevent that violence, which a large majority of Americans already reject, should proceed rapidly based on the best evidence available.
Whether or not you believe that a civil war / terrorism is likely, a lot of the steps you should take to prepare are the same steps that you should take to prepare for any disaster. The Red Cross’ official recommendations are a good guide.
GET INVOLVED, LOCALLY. - By participating with local organizations you can help resolve issues within your community and prevent conflicts from escalating to violence in the first place. Organizations that you can be a part of may help maintain order and save lives in the event of a disaster. The people you connect with today may save your life tomorrow.
TBH I’m surprised it hasn’t already started.
I would argue that it has, it’s just not at the stages where it’s obvious yet.
Yeah good point. The U.S. system is clearly in the midst of collapse, especially in regards to things like healthcare (as if it wasn’t already bad enough). I’ve been hearing horror stories from some family members there. The hot civil war isn’t far away.
I honestly don’t think this will happen, at least not any time soon. Yes, the US is going through a bit of a rough patch politically. But the last time we had an actual civil war, there were titanic economic interests (slavers) at work. The economic titans of the present day would loose profit off of the disruption caused by civil war, so they will fight tooth and nail to keep things from erupting into an actual civil war.
It’s also worth noting that people have been flapping their gums about overthrowing the government for a long, long time. They might even be armed to the teeth. But there’s little chance that they will actually want to start shit.
Nobody thinks a collapse will happen until it happens. The reality of the situation is that US now has staggering levels of inequality not since since the 30s, and things are going to continue getting worse going forward. Traditionally, collapse in material conditions is precisely what leads to violent uprisings and civil wars. Meanwhile, the economic titans you speak of are the ones who continue to escalate this crisis. Ray Dalio wrote a good book analyzing the economic situation in US and the likely future trajectory. He contrasts it with previous empires and the conditions that led to the collapse of those empires. His assessment, shared by many experts, is that US has entered the initial stages of collapse already.
On top the disastrous pandemic handling and a failed economic war with Russia, US is now also facing increasing climate disasters that will further strain already failing economy. Warming climate is also starting to affect harvests which will inevitably result in food shortages. As Lenin put it, every society is three meals away from chaos. US is very close to chaos today.
The reality of the situation is that US now has staggering levels of inequality not since since the 30s, and things are going to continue getting worse going forward.
The violent schisms are not between the haves and have-nots. They’re between political factions. The way this does interact with economic inequality is more regional, where the economies of certain regions are being hollowed out as part of economic shifts.
Warming climate is also starting to affect harvests which will inevitably result in food shortages.
The US has its climate problems, no thanks to the dunderheads who drink the fossil fuel industry propaganda Kool-Aid and stop progress. But there are already people working on resilience measures when it comes to crops. We may not be able to have as many strawberries and almonds, but we’re nowhere near a collapse in food. As cultured meat and dairy gains popularity, that should additionally alleviate a lot of the water issues since those are both incredibly water intensive when done with cows.
The violent schisms are not between the haves and have-nots. They’re between political factions.
Ultimately, violent schisms always end up being between haves and have-nots. These schisms are only starting to develop now and being expressed as tribalism within the existing political framework. Eventually those will spill over into a class conflict.
Economic problems are not regional at all. Working class people across the country are finding themselves in increasingly untenable positions. Look at any stats on how majority of Americans are doing economically. Less than half of Americans have savings to cover a $1,000 surprise expense which means most people are living paycheck to paycheck, and now the cost of living is rising rapidly as runaway inflation and recession set in.
But there are already people working on resilience measures when it comes to crops. We may not be able to have as many strawberries and almonds, but we’re nowhere near a collapse in food.
You are woefully misinformed. Heatwaves resulted in massive crop loss last year. On top of that, a river in Colorado that around 40 million people rely on is drying up while California is running out of fresh water as well. This isn’t a future problem, it’s happening today.
As cultured meat and dairy gains popularity, that should additionally alleviate a lot of the water issues since those are both incredibly water intensive when done with cows.
None of these technologies are even close to replacing traditional farming on any significant scale.
US is also starting to see shortages of essential goods now.
It’s worth noting that people in positions of power have the exact same fantasy mindset as you do. Halting and reversing current trends requires honestly acknowledging root causes of the problems in order to take corrective action. However, existing political climate precludes this from happening. The further along collapse of the empire progresses the more difficult it becomes to arrest it, and by the time the problems become obvious to the decision makers there’s little that they will be able to do about them.
Okay Hari Seldon, here’s why the US is not doing as badly as you think.
Ultimately, violent schisms always end up being between haves and have-nots. These schisms are only starting to develop now and being expressed as tribalism within the existing political framework. Eventually those will spill over into a class conflict.
That’s patently untrue. Plenty of violent internal political strife has developed around tribal groups, but never developed between economic strata. And of course the only all out civil war in the US was between two groups of states, not economic groups. I don’t expect the actual violence to spread beyond fringe groups who are already at each others throats.
Economic problems are not regional at all.
Except they are. Entire towns are having their economies hollowed out. Usually they are towns that specialized too much on one industry, then suffer when that industry dies or moves to another place to exploit. On the other hand, other cities are having severe growing pains as incoming people attracted to their bustling economies are making housing in particular difficult.
None of these technologies are even close to replacing traditional farming on any significant scale.
It’s hard to tell what the timeline will be. That said, factories are already under construction for some types of cultured meat. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw some of the easier meats (e.g. ground beef) be cheaper than animal meats within the decade.
California also needs to make reforms to its water use regulations. Currently, water is parceled out based on historical water rights. Farmers with large historical claims will often use that water to grow hungry crops like alfalfa. The regulations should not privilege some farmers over other farmers, which should help at least some in increasing efficient use of water.
Shortages
Everyone was (and is) seeing shortages as part of the COVID-19 pandemic. But it was often overstated. Supply chain management had for too long focused on being extremely lean at the expense of resilience. COVID-19 threw that into chaos, which has given supply chains a lesson in too much lean. But even when things were at their worst, the grocery stores were never empty. It was just a matter of maybe changing a recipe.
That’s patently untrue. Plenty of violent internal political strife has developed around tribal groups, but never developed between economic strata. And of course the only all out civil war in the US was between two groups of states, not economic groups. I don’t expect the actual violence to spread beyond fringe groups who are already at each others throats.
The context here is the collapsing standard of living in US. If you examine similar examples, as the book I linked earlier does, it’s pretty clear that the schisms are class conflicts in these situations.
Except they are. Entire towns are having their economies hollowed out. Usually they are towns that specialized too much on one industry, then suffer when that industry dies or moves to another place to exploit. On the other hand, other cities are having severe growing pains as incoming people attracted to their bustling economies are making housing in particular difficult.
Obviously things are deteriorating at different rates in different parts of the country. However, my point was that the standard of living is dropping across the country, and working class people are struggling everywhere in US right now. Most people who don’t already own a home have no hope of being able to afford housing at this point.
It’s hard to tell what the timeline will be. That said, factories are already under construction for some types of cultured meat. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw some of the easier meats (e.g. ground beef) be cheaper than animal meats within the decade.
US has population of over 300 million. A couple of experimental factories aren’t going to feed US population. Solving that problem would require large scale investment that is nowhere to be found, especially in a collapsing economy.
All it’s going to take is a couple of weeks of extreme weather to kill the crops, and at that point there’s going to be a famine. This has happened many times throughout history. In fact, climate related famines were one of the major driving forces behind Russian revolution at the start of the 20th century.
Everyone was (and is) seeing shortages as part of the COVID-19 pandemic. But it was often overstated. Supply chain management had for too long focused on being extremely lean at the expense of resilience. COVID-19 threw that into chaos, which has given supply chains a lesson in too much lean. But even when things were at their worst, the grocery stores were never empty. It was just a matter of maybe changing a recipe.
Supply chain management works the only way it can work within US financial system. The lesson that was learned is that the government will just print more money to bail out the companies when a crash happens. Lots of basic items are now gone from circulation, and the problem continues to get worse. We haven’t seen the full impact of the economic war hit yet either, that will be seen in a few months.
