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Sure, but that was the whole idea or the articles: it’s not certain how much is it going to cost in the end, and how long it will take. And how the future sanctions will affect. You repeate the same stuff like a broken record. It will take over a decade to get the volumes to the same level with Europe’s imports.
And I’m going to repeat once again that cost is driven by demand, and there is no reason for demand to drop. The sanctions have had no effect because only western countries are participating. All the sanctions do is increase price of energy in Europe because Europe is now buying Russian gas through third parties.
Russia is missing capability to do trade with Europe and Northern America. I’d call that pretty profound effect.
I would not call that profound effect because there is no evidence to support the idea that this had any profound impact on life in Russia. We see profound impact on life in Europe however. Also, you may not realize this but western companies losing business in a country of 150 million also hurts western companies. Any damage done to Russia by this process is symmetrically reflected on the west.
You think Europe and North America are going to trade with Russia using yuan or rubles? 🤣
No I don’t. I simply don’t think Europe and North America matter to Russia as trade partners in the grand scheme of things. Russia has plenty of trade partners without the west. Meanwhile, the west has not been able to secure alternatives to Russian commodities. Your chauvinism clouds your judgment. 🤣
The demand may not be going anywhere but the amount what Russia can export is now limited.
That’s what makes the price go up. Let me try using small words you might be able to understand. Less supply means higher price. If Russia can’t deliver as much gas it was previously, then the price for the available gas surges because there isn’t enough to meet demand. This is why Russia is making more profit while selling less gas right now. Since demand is high, that means Russia will keep building more pipelines east and increase volumes of sales to meet demand.
I haven’t said anything like that either. Both are dependent on each other, of course. Please stop putting words to my mouth.
You literally just admitted that the economy in Europe is collapsing because essential commodities from Russia have been cut off. Meanwhile, nothing essential in Russia is missing. This is why the effect on Europe is so much more profound.
Thanks! Seems I wasn’t aware of that site.
Seems like aren’t aware of great many things.
Of course I meant the dollar and euro here.
It’s pretty hilarious that you think these are the only currencies worth considering, given that all the industry and manufacturing is in Asia. You seems to be under the delusion that 15% of world’s population in the west is still the most important part of the planet. It’s not.
That is absolutely the context for the topic. LNG suppliers from US will now own European gas market, something US has been pushing to do for a long time now. This is the tremendous strategic opportunity for US that this sabotage creates.
It also doesn’t state anything about possible timeline(s) of transition to renewables.
That’s me explaining to you how long it takes to build renewable infrastructure. Europe has been trying to do this for a long time now, and results are lacklustre at best.
This whole opportunity point of view here is just your own opinion/conclusion. And because the topic differs from the actual content, I’d label this as misinformation.
I genuinely can’t tell if you really believe this yourself or just think everyone here is an utter idiot. 😂
The quote is from Against Empire
Still, the number of exports doesn’t met the amounts they were exporting to Europe even if the new pipeline is finished. In short: China is not going to replace Europe in the energy front, and that’s crystal clear. I’m not sure how many times this needs to be repeated.
In short, demand for Russian energy exports isn’t going anywhere. You’re also making a baseless claim that Russia will not be making more pipelines to the east in the future. Pakistan already asked Russia for a pipeline just last month for example. With manufacturing moving out of Europe, the demand for energy in Asia will grow proportionally, and that energy has the same source.
Your whole premise is nonsense, yet you keep doubling down on it. It’s absolutely amazing that you can’t understand supply and demand mechanics.
No we are not. You are comparing countries that have energy imports cut off (the effects are pretty fast) to a country that has cut off imports on other areas (effects are more slow). The situation could be only compared if both Europe and Russia would be dependent on same things.
Ah, so you’re finally admitting that Europe is more dependent on Russia than the other way around. And following this basic logic it becomes obvious that the longer the trade war goes the worse off Europe will be economically relative to Russia.
Ok, let’s see what it says… Retail sales fell 8,8% in August, wages fell over 3%, gas cutoff hits about 6,6 billion dollars, 55% of oil exports are lost, metal producers are losing 5,7 billion per year, EU restrictions have tripled the cost of road shipments, 95% of passenger planes are foreign-made planes now without spare parts, with pharmaceuticals about 80% of domestic production relies on imported raw materials. So far I haven’t seen Russia itself releasing this kind of stats. Have you?
Russia releases stats about the economy regularly, which include price increases, wages, and so on.
- https://www.cbr.ru/eng/statistics/
- https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/keypr/ *https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/event/?id=12202
Meanwhile, you just make stuff up as usual. For example, sanctions on plane spare parts were lifted back in August. So, yeah I don’t see made up stats from Russia.
And what are you going to do with all the roubles when you can’t change them to other currency?
Huh, Russia exchanges roubles for all kinds currencies with yuan and rupees being two key ones. There’s a whole new financial system forming outside of SWIFT right now. The amount of ignorance on display here is just stunning.
Your own comment is conveniently removed from context which is:
And so we’ve significantly increased our production as well as making available to Europe liquefied natural gas. And we’re now the leading supplier of LNG to Europe to help compensate for any gas or oil that it’s losing as a result of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.
The whole “renewables transition” is something that’s going to take at least a decade. Also, the main supplier of renewables globally is China. Blinken is very clearly talking about Europe becoming dependent on US LNG, which is the great tremendous strategic opportunity for US.
This is what I mean when I say people don’t understand the implications of what’s happening. German economy is largely based in manufacturing. Input costs for manufacturing have just shot up by an order of magnitude. This makes it uncompetitive for companies to operate in Germany, and as a result German manufacturing industry is already starting to shut down. Some of it is moving to US, while most is moving to Asia. This will lead to mass unemployment coupled with rising prices on things that now need to be imported from other countries at a time when German currency is tanking.
Meanwhile, there is no available energy to replace what Germany was getting from Russia available going forward. A lot of the problems are being deferred by relying on reserves, but those were only meant to supplement pipelines not replace them. German government spent the past 6 months looking for alternatives and has come up largely empty handed.
Before the pipelines got blown up there was a chance that Germany could’ve backed down from the current position and negotiated with Russia, but that avenue has now been closed. This quote basically sums up what US did to Europe:
“Throw your soldiers into positions whence there is no escape, and they will prefer death to flight. If they will face death, there is nothing they may not achieve. Officers and men alike will put forth their uttermost strength. Soldiers in desperate straits lose the sense of fear. If there is no place of refuge, they will stand firm."
Really makes you wonder whether people in Germany truly understand what it is they’re signing up for. We’re just starting to enter early stages of the crisis, and confidence in the government is still relatively high. Most people believe that there is a plan and that alternative sources of energy will be secured. It’s going to be much more interesting to see what level support there is for the current policies once people start waking up to the fact that they’ve been lied to all this time and that there is no plan going forward.
Oh here are a few I tried to get the pics above. Each time you run it something new comes out, but they have a certain common feel to them based on the prompt.
- a face made of golden hour, spitting acid, Lightpainting, Tom Bagshaw, abstract, Set in the Rocky Mountains
- A cat portrait in space, nebula by Dan Mumford and Umberto Boccioni, oil on canvas
- celestial crow with a nebula background by Guweiz and Dan Mumford, oil on canvas
- a woman hiding in the shadows on a ruined world, futuristic post-apocalyptic vibe, all the streets are on fire and smoke, humble philosopher
this site has a lot of fun prompts to try, and I find recombining them can get really neat results https://arthub.ai/
As you can see from the sources, even after the new pipeline is finished, the numbers are nowhere near the ones they exported to Europe. I haven’t seen any other numbers that would speak against this.
As you can see, Russia is making record profits at current levels of exports, and once the pipeline is finished it will be doing more exports. The demand for gas isn’t going away any time soon, and after 6 months, it’s crystal clear that there is no way to replace Russian gas on the global market. I realize the concept of supply and demand is daunting for some people.
And when you put the words that way it almost sounds someone has gained a lot of benefits from the explosions of Nord Stream pipes ;) It’s one way to circle around the sanctions.
I see that you’re once again back to having trouble understanding that Russia can turn off the tap at the source. Russia is not required to sell gas to Europe, they can choose whom they do business with. Russia having cut gas in Nord Stream 1 pipelines clearly demonstrated this concept already. Anybody who thinks that Russia needs to blow up it’s own pipelines assumes that people whom they’re trying to convince are imbeciles.
AFAIK Russia is not self-sufficient.
I asked you to be specific here, but you just keep repeating nonsense that you made up.
Are are comparing different things here.
No, we’re literally comparing the same thing. The west cut trade with Russia and now western economies are tanking due to lack of commodities from Russia, while Russian economy is doing just fine without western trinkets.
Yeah, because Russia doesn’t give any data. We’ll have to rely on other data and estimations.
Russia publishes plenty of data, anybody who knows how to use google can look it up. I’m guessing you’re not in the set of people who understand how google works.
Electronic components for manufacturing (you want to depend on China with this too?), spare parts, chemicals etc…
Yes, Russia is going to depend on China for a lot of these things the same way the rest of the world is. You evidently don’t seem to understand where most of global manufacturing happens.
And the most essential: money.
Oh you mean like the rouble that’s the only currency that continues to strengthen agains the dollar? 😂
All the previous exports must be made to China. Sounds like Russia is going to be dependent on them for a long time. In short, China holds the cards from now on.
No, all previous exports will be made to friendly countries which constitute the majority of world’s population. Go read up on BRICS which Russia is a central member of.
China is a big winner from all this to be sure, and I’m personally very happy about that. I think China is a far better run country than Russia, and I’d much rather see China lead the world than western parasites. Russia is paving the way for that.
Please point out a mobilization that hasn’t run into a few snags. Vietnam mobilization in US sure had more snags as I recall. Also, not sure what the quotes are meant to imply there. Are you trying to suggest this is a full mobilization?