Canada’s total exports are about 35% of total GDP. So that puts US exports at somewhere around 24% of GDP. Pretty high but then if we exclude oil and gas and potash exports it’s a much, much smaller number. So small in fact that we would probably replace those exports within 12 months.
I wonder if anyone else other than the US wants some oil, natural gas, or potash? And yes I know we currently lack pipeline capacity but at this point I’d be willing to let the government finance it all to move oil and gas to the east coast.
You’re not alone! It looks like investors also think they overplayed their hand, judging by the reaction of the markets. Terrible combination of Trumps silky smooth brain and US exceptionalism.
Also, not the first time I’ve seen the 40% GDP figure make an appearance. Must be doing its rounds on US propaganda networks.
4/5ths of a country’s exports do not get rerouted in 12 months.
i feel like the most likely outcome is that Canada (and Mexico) end up playing ball with Trump once he feels he did enough of whatever stupid PR stunt he needs to do and ameliorates a bit
Canada is not gonna get a better market for its goods than the largest economy in the world that speaks the same language and has had decades of integration. point blank isn’t happening
right now there’s a wave of nationalism sweeping canada (maybe that was trump’s goal- encourage populism) but reality sets in eventually and the banking class will do whatever they have to do to keep those economic indicators up
You can feel any way you wish but frankly it will be political suicide for anyone who tries to walk back the current stance against the US. Sometimes you have to fire customers.
the current stance is fairly mild. Canada taxing something like 10% of American imports (which represents less than 1% of total American exports) when Trump is threatening 80% of all Canadian exports is not the aggressive retaliation the rhetoric would have you believe
Sometimes you have to fire customers
i knew a guy with a cleaning business. it grew to a fairly large size (roughly ~30 employees with an office and secretaries, etc) over the course of a few years, although about 80% of the revenue came from one client. he eventually lost that client and the business had to fire most of its staff. he had to sell two properties he owned to pay off debt he had accumulated- he was spending money at a rate that was not sustainable because he assumed that money would always come in at the same rate.
he ended up giving up and sold the business to a couple of outside guys. those guys hired a sales team and diversified the business and now it’s doing great- grew literally 10x bigger than it was under original owner. but it took years.
moral of the story? when all your eggs are in one basket, you are very vulnerable.
you also have to consider that America is not only a customer, but a vendor too. Tariffs placed on American imports will lead to more tariffs being placed on Canadian imports. You not only lose sales but a source of goods. i really think most people in this thread do not fully recognize the severity of Canada’s position
but frankly it will be political suicide
It will also be political suicide to trigger a historic recession. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. I feel bad for the new banker PM. He’s essentially a political lamb to the slaughter. Trudeau is getting out at the right time- his legacy will remain intact.
Canada’s total exports are about 35% of total GDP. So that puts US exports at somewhere around 24% of GDP. Pretty high but then if we exclude oil and gas and potash exports it’s a much, much smaller number. So small in fact that we would probably replace those exports within 12 months.
I wonder if anyone else other than the US wants some oil, natural gas, or potash? And yes I know we currently lack pipeline capacity but at this point I’d be willing to let the government finance it all to move oil and gas to the east coast.
I really think Americans over played their hand.
You’re not alone! It looks like investors also think they overplayed their hand, judging by the reaction of the markets. Terrible combination of Trumps silky smooth brain and US exceptionalism.
Also, not the first time I’ve seen the 40% GDP figure make an appearance. Must be doing its rounds on US propaganda networks.
4/5ths of a country’s exports do not get rerouted in 12 months.
i feel like the most likely outcome is that Canada (and Mexico) end up playing ball with Trump once he feels he did enough of whatever stupid PR stunt he needs to do and ameliorates a bit
Canada is not gonna get a better market for its goods than the largest economy in the world that speaks the same language and has had decades of integration. point blank isn’t happening
right now there’s a wave of nationalism sweeping canada (maybe that was trump’s goal- encourage populism) but reality sets in eventually and the banking class will do whatever they have to do to keep those economic indicators up
You can feel any way you wish but frankly it will be political suicide for anyone who tries to walk back the current stance against the US. Sometimes you have to fire customers.
the current stance is fairly mild. Canada taxing something like 10% of American imports (which represents less than 1% of total American exports) when Trump is threatening 80% of all Canadian exports is not the aggressive retaliation the rhetoric would have you believe
i knew a guy with a cleaning business. it grew to a fairly large size (roughly ~30 employees with an office and secretaries, etc) over the course of a few years, although about 80% of the revenue came from one client. he eventually lost that client and the business had to fire most of its staff. he had to sell two properties he owned to pay off debt he had accumulated- he was spending money at a rate that was not sustainable because he assumed that money would always come in at the same rate.
he ended up giving up and sold the business to a couple of outside guys. those guys hired a sales team and diversified the business and now it’s doing great- grew literally 10x bigger than it was under original owner. but it took years.
moral of the story? when all your eggs are in one basket, you are very vulnerable.
you also have to consider that America is not only a customer, but a vendor too. Tariffs placed on American imports will lead to more tariffs being placed on Canadian imports. You not only lose sales but a source of goods. i really think most people in this thread do not fully recognize the severity of Canada’s position
It will also be political suicide to trigger a historic recession. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. I feel bad for the new banker PM. He’s essentially a political lamb to the slaughter. Trudeau is getting out at the right time- his legacy will remain intact.