Don’t think GDP is the best way to determine where we are on the timeline of America’s desperation to start a war. Even ignoring the fact that GDP is a terrible way of measuring the size of an economy, a larger economy doesn’t necessarily mean it’s stronger or more stable. Classic example being Russia thriving in all those sanctions even though “it has a pitiful economy smaller than Italy” because Russia’s economy is comprised of largely useful things in the context of geopolitical warfare while Italy is pretentious pasta, tourism, overpriced trunks, and designer apparel
The size of China’s economy definitely correlates to how well insulated it is against aggression due to a strong manufacturing base and global trade entwinement but it doesn’t necessarily have to correlate with how big of a threat it is to America. China has no power projection with its military and can’t engage in much offensive economic warfare. China can sanction America but it goes both ways since they would damage their own exports. If China grows its economy by selling more goods to the West that the US doesn’t produce themselves, that’s not threatening at all
America’s economy obviously depends on weaponizing USD hegemony and imperialism in all its forms so a better way to gauge how close we are to war imo is how much damage China is doing to affect America’s ability to do those things through their relationship and projects building with the Global South
Predicting the timeline quantitatively, we could probably look at Global South countries’ ratio of loans between IMF/World Bank/USA and China, their ratio of trade between the West and China, percentage of USD in foreign reserves, percentage of trade conducted in USD, and the ratio between USA’s M2 money supply and inflation/forex rate (to track how effectively they can print money)
We probably get close to war when/if numbers like these start accelerating in the favour of China to a point where the US feels it can’t recover (imo much further away when China > USA in GDP). Plaza Accord happened when Japan’s GDP was 1/3 of America’s but it was clear American exports were not going to recover against Japan’s growth by that time. Think the 2025 China surpassing USA in GDP is just watered down economic propaganda for the masses like how USA invaded the Middle East for “oil” when technically it was to control the oil markets and protect the petrodollar
oop yea i didnt mean to say that war was coming by 2025-2028 but rather that there’s definite and clear evidence that at some point china will eclipse the US as the world’s hegemon, and the US won’t let that happen. tbh itll be hard to say when a direct war with china will ever break out, but we know for a fact that it is already being fought in the periphery. the war between china and the us will be determined by the international situation as we can see with things like the indo pacific framework solidifying an economic-political-military alliance between the us, japan, india and australia aimed at surrounding china. the host of allegiances between the two poles will probably be the brunt of the violence until the situation severely deteriorates.
both sides it looks like are trying to play the long game, so idk if anybody could really make an accurate prediction, but you make a lot of good points
Don’t think GDP is the best way to determine where we are on the timeline of America’s desperation to start a war. Even ignoring the fact that GDP is a terrible way of measuring the size of an economy, a larger economy doesn’t necessarily mean it’s stronger or more stable. Classic example being Russia thriving in all those sanctions even though “it has a pitiful economy smaller than Italy” because Russia’s economy is comprised of largely useful things in the context of geopolitical warfare while Italy is pretentious pasta, tourism, overpriced trunks, and designer apparel
The size of China’s economy definitely correlates to how well insulated it is against aggression due to a strong manufacturing base and global trade entwinement but it doesn’t necessarily have to correlate with how big of a threat it is to America. China has no power projection with its military and can’t engage in much offensive economic warfare. China can sanction America but it goes both ways since they would damage their own exports. If China grows its economy by selling more goods to the West that the US doesn’t produce themselves, that’s not threatening at all
America’s economy obviously depends on weaponizing USD hegemony and imperialism in all its forms so a better way to gauge how close we are to war imo is how much damage China is doing to affect America’s ability to do those things through their relationship and projects building with the Global South
Predicting the timeline quantitatively, we could probably look at Global South countries’ ratio of loans between IMF/World Bank/USA and China, their ratio of trade between the West and China, percentage of USD in foreign reserves, percentage of trade conducted in USD, and the ratio between USA’s M2 money supply and inflation/forex rate (to track how effectively they can print money)
We probably get close to war when/if numbers like these start accelerating in the favour of China to a point where the US feels it can’t recover (imo much further away when China > USA in GDP). Plaza Accord happened when Japan’s GDP was 1/3 of America’s but it was clear American exports were not going to recover against Japan’s growth by that time. Think the 2025 China surpassing USA in GDP is just watered down economic propaganda for the masses like how USA invaded the Middle East for “oil” when technically it was to control the oil markets and protect the petrodollar
oop yea i didnt mean to say that war was coming by 2025-2028 but rather that there’s definite and clear evidence that at some point china will eclipse the US as the world’s hegemon, and the US won’t let that happen. tbh itll be hard to say when a direct war with china will ever break out, but we know for a fact that it is already being fought in the periphery. the war between china and the us will be determined by the international situation as we can see with things like the indo pacific framework solidifying an economic-political-military alliance between the us, japan, india and australia aimed at surrounding china. the host of allegiances between the two poles will probably be the brunt of the violence until the situation severely deteriorates.
both sides it looks like are trying to play the long game, so idk if anybody could really make an accurate prediction, but you make a lot of good points