• Filthmontane@lemmy.world
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    1 year ago

    Why would China start anything if they haven’t started anything in 50 years? What if another 50 years goes by and China still hasn’t started anything? Isn’t that just a waste of weapons?

        • InvaderDJ@lemmy.world
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          1 year ago

          I think the argument is that there wasn’t any movement to take control of Hong Kong and replace its basically independent government for years. Until there was.

          Same with the whole China Sea expansion. Circumstances can change on a dime and the optimal outcome is if nothing happens.

          • Filthmontane@lemmy.world
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            1 year ago

            Hong Kong had become a safe haven for corrupt capitalists and politicians so China decided to start extradition to the mainland so they could be put in jail instead of bribing they’re way out of every change. Hong Kong still has plenty of autonomy.

            As for the Sea expansion, they claimed the 9 dash line after world war 2 and we’ve been arguing over it ever since. They’re being reactive to America’s constant provocation. Nothing will come of any of it though.

    • toybastard@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      They would start something for the same reason Russia started something in Ukraine.

      The goal is that another 50 years go by and they don’t start shit.

      • Filthmontane@lemmy.world
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        1 year ago

        That’s a brain broken analysis. You think one country would invade another because of what happened with two completely separate countries? I guess by that analysis, the US is going to invade Mexico and England will invade Ireland any day now.

    • Rinox@feddit.it
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      1 year ago

      Because I’m the last 50 years they didn’t have a military powerful enough to assure a swift and painless victory. That’s the whole point of why china keeps increasing their military and why Taiwan needs to do the same. The moment China has a critical force, they’ll attack, they have announced it loudly and repeatedly in the past decades.

      • Filthmontane@lemmy.world
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        1 year ago

        China could have invaded Taiwan ages ago and won very swiftly. The plans were drawn up and everything. China very big. Much people. Taiwan very small. Not so many people.

        • Rinox@feddit.it
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          1 year ago

          China could have invaded Taiwan ages ago and won very swiftly

          Even if the US intervened? Because they said they would ages ago.

          Also, you can have a billion people in the army, but you first need to cross the sea without getting exploded, and keep resupplying your men until Taiwan and US capitulation. This is not something china could do “ages ago”

          • Filthmontane@lemmy.world
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            1 year ago

            Well, China was the winner of the civil war, so they did win. It was just determined that after so many decades of fighting and war, it was time to stop and focus on rebuilding China. As for their military might, you underestimate China’s capabilities and technology. It’s not just a country of a bunch of people with bolt action rifles. They’re military technology is on par with the US and they’re not spread thin.

            • Rinox@feddit.it
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              1 year ago

              I never said they didn’t win the civil war, although they did try to take Taiwan during the civil war, when the KMT fled mainland China, and just failed. In the battle of Guningtou the PRC tried to take the small islands right on the shores of mainland China, much much closer than Formosa, and got defeated right there. For context the islands of Kinmen are just 10km away from mainland China, and 190km away from Taiwan. Amphibious attacks are fucking hard, I tell you. Way harder than you think.

              Russia was thought to have the second most powerful army in the world, and to some respects they did, yet they got bogged down in Ukraine, lost organization and just got stuck in a shit position while losing hundreds of thousands of men and equipment. And Ukraine is a flat terrain with hundreds of km of frontline, it’s not a bottleneck 200km away from shore with no logistics support.

              To pull off an amphibious attack of this magnitude you’d probably need 5 to 10 times the military prowess of the enemy and impeccable organization and logistics, plus complete control of the skies. Right now China cannot simply waltz in and take it, it would be a brutal war with millions of deaths, untold destruction on both sides and a possible escalation to a world war (too many countries rely on Taiwans and Chinese microchips for way too many things).

              China could have invaded Taiwan ages ago and won very swiftly

              I’m just refuting this claim, nothing more. I’m not saying the Chinese army isn’t powerful or doesn’t have huge numbers. Actually, I’m saying it is, which is why Taiwan, Japan and SK are rearming themselves at breakneck pace. To deter a possible act of aggression from a country that keeps building up their military and keeps talking about invading.

              • Filthmontane@lemmy.world
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                1 year ago

                China failed that invasion because they barely had a Navy. Ukraine might be flat land, but it’s also swamp land that vehicles have a hard time crossing. Russia’s military is also in shambles due to decades of corruption in their military technology development. China’s tanks don’t just fall apart and stop working like Russia’s does. China also has an incredibly advanced air force.

                All that being said, this is all built on internal politics within Taiwan. The democratic party in Taiwan wants to join the West and the US is glad to send military equipment if it means another proxy war to profit off of. The KMT party wants to stick with China and China is happy to continue supporting them until they can get the mainland development of microchips in order. Everything else is political fluff and military posturing. China is buying time until they can call Taiwan’s bluff because Taiwan cannot survive without China. China could turn Taiwan into the next Cuba and never need to invade in the first place.

    • assassin_aragorn@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      No, that’s the whole point. It’s like nukes. The nuke itself isn’t the big deal, your ownership of one is. If a country was threatening to invade you, and you responded by threatening to nuke them if they do, they’ll stand down.

      It’s the same idea here. The weapons are a deterrent. It’s a sheathed sword to tell your enemy that you’re armed and able to defend yourself. We don’t actually want to use the weapons. It’s a threat that there’s plenty of firepower to fight an invasion.

      • Filthmontane@lemmy.world
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        1 year ago

        The only thing like nukes is nukes. The thing deterring China from invading Taiwan is how intertwined their economies are. China has no reason to invade Taiwan. Taiwan buys a ton of things from China and sells them microchips. They have a symbiotic relationship.

    • frezik
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      1 year ago

      Because Xi is reversing a few decades of liberalized policy in China. He’s particularly authoritarian, and part of that is looking back to Taiwan as something that is “rightfully” their’s.

      It’s not a good idea. China is hitting economic headwinds, and birthrate issues from the long term effects of the One Child Policy are going to hit hard in the next decade. It’d be in everyone’s best interests to continue ignoring the Taiwan issue, if not acknowledging it as a country and ending the whole problem. Xi doesn’t see it that way, because authoritarian douchenozzles never do.

      The war has to happen in the next 5 to 8 years, or it won’t happen. That’s the point where China will have too many old people and too few young people to take care of them. They won’t be able to fight a war.

      Everything the US is doing right now is positioning pieces in a chess game. Make it loud and clear that an invasion of Taiwan would be a costly failure. Hold it that way for the next few years, and then win without a shot being fired.

      It’s be great if we could all just agree that Taiwan is a sovereign country and we all go home. Since Xi isn’t likely to see it that way, we do this expensive dance instead. It’s still a bargain compared to a war.