Considering what CJ Stroud has been doing, I’m interested in seeing how teams handle drafting a QB high from here on out. Over the last 20 years or so, I think we’ve seen less and less patience when it comes to rookie QBs. There used to be a time where a guy could get drafted and would essentially be a clipboard holder his first 2-3 years if the guy ahead of him was producing at at least a Cincy Andy Dalton level. We’ve seen a lot more get thrown out to the fire early and they get a lot less leeway now than they did when I first started watching football 20 something years ago.
Still tho, a lot of fans still like to justify why their teams young QB is underperforming and usually point to factors that are out of their control (roster, coaching staff, front office, lack of experience)
And this guy CJ Stroud comes into the league with a franchise in perhaps its darkest days with a rookie head coach to boot, no notable weapons at the start of the season and he’s got them in the playoff hunt and hasn’t only been playing well for a rookie but he has been one of the best performing QBs in the league this season.
I’m already seeing a lot of rumblings on social media in regards to other young QBs that have yet to play like CJ has and some guys that had supporters before this season have lost a lot of them. It’s just hard to keep justifying poor play with external excuses when this guy isn’t in an ideal situation at all and making it happen.
I’m already seeing a lot of rumblings on social media
Cursed phrase
It’s a cyclical thing I guess. Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, RG3, Justin Herbert (once he began starting) were all recent examples of guys who had exceptional rookie seasons.
Then you had a few start slowly, like Lawrence, Josh Allen, Goff (maybe not the best example, he was so up and down), etc. who took a while to hit their stride.
I think the lesson here isn’t that they’re going to have less time to prove themselves, it’s that regardless of how quickly they get it (or don’t), you need to be patient.
I generally think a first year is a learning year, the second year is going to give you a relative idea of a prospect’s ceiling and floor, and by the end of the third year he’s either getting it or he’s not. There are of course exceptions to this, but that’s generally how I’ve seen it.
Kyler Murray fell into your description. First year he was decent, set some rookie records. Second year he was straight fire, he did some amazing things (hail Murray, huge rushing yards) and then the third year he lead his team to a playoff game. But then he regressed a bit the year later, although the whole team fell apart that year, and then he was injured. Gotta judge him again next season.
Yeah this is the first time a rookie QB has ever been good, it’s totally gonna change the league
Well it’s obvious now Andrew Luck was a system quarterback
There have always been rookies that were exceptional and others that became good after like 3 years. Eli Manning was considered a disappointment until the 2007 playoffs. I think you hold onto your guy as long as he keeps improving. If he plateaus as only about the 20th best starter, move on.
CJ is an exception to the rule. No one should ever be compared to the exception. It’s bullshit people are already calling Bryce a “bust” - like what? He’s struggling and it makes more sense to struggle as a rookie QB than it does to play well IMO.
NO, you know why? Because the league will not go back in time to ground and pound and defensive slopfests currently featuring in the AFCN, for example. The ratings are as good as they’ve ever been, but they’re not going to take this lying down.
This is like the neutral zone trap in hockey or the bully ball in basketball both about 2 decades ago, and both those leagues came to their senses slowly without a lot of analytics and internet comments.
This time, the NFL will not wait around. Not only because high scoring games are more fun for casual fans, not only because they’re more fun to bet on, but because they can’t market defensive players the way they can market Mahomes, Wilson, Rogers, Brady, Allen, Manningses, Tua, etc.
The only counter argument I can see is that they really hate guaranteed contracts, and they want QBs to flail around until that goes away. But there’s no math in that imo.
They’ll wait to see if it’s a statistical fluke, and I’m sure they’re happy to return some physical play back, but no way there isn’t a course correction.
No, but the margin of error has shorten.
A Rookie QB likely isn’t long for being a starter with a bad first season depending on circumstances (see Trevor Lawrence), especially with disasters like Zach Wilson being a prime example for years to come.
Even though Lawrence’s first season wasn’t statistically great, you could tell he had incredible pocket awareness and a rocket for an arm.
Go back to Minecraft nephew
CJ Stroud? How about Brock Purdy?
Purdy: 16 regular season starts, 13-3, 32 TDs, 10 INTs, 69.1 Completion %, 110.5 Passer Rating
Stroud: 10 starts, 6-4, 17 TDs, 5 INTs, 62.8 Completion %, 99.3 Passer Rating
RAC Champ Purdy
If Purdy was drafted in the first or second round there wouldn’t be anyone doubting him. But his draft position will follow him until he either wins a Super Bowl or multiple ones. Or plays for a long time and is consistently good.
I think that’s been the consistent direction that the league’s going in and, frankly, I think it’s a bad thing. In the pursuit of success teams are dumping players really early and I think it’s why we see a lot of late-career breakout stars because these players are capable of playing at this level, they just don’t get the right environment (both time to learn and good coaches to learn from) to succeed.
Let me answer your question with another question.
Do you think Mr. Irrelevant QBs are gonna have higher expectations upon them after last year?
Depends on if they play I guess
How often is Mr. Irrelevant a QB? Or do you just mean lower drafted QBs anyway?
It is silly to think an anomaly should drastically change the idea that it takes more than a season to see what you have at qb. Stroud is in an incredibly rare group of rookie qbs who did well out of the gate. Any gm thinking that should be the standard, probably shouldn’t be a gm.
It is also a misconception that the Texans were some dark pit of despair that Stroud walked into. Absolutely nothing suggested Stroud was going into a horrible situation if you actually followed the Texans and not the media.
Stroud was going into a team with some question marks that had been improving. Our line had been playing better heading into this season, we made smart moves on offense and defense, and we clearly tried to make an environment comfortable for a rookie qb. We didn’t just draft a qb and pretend we had all the tools, we actively attempted to make a home for him.
People have short memories of how the NFL works. Your goat of today becomes the has-been of tomorrow rather quickly. Hell, Stroud could never come close to living up to this season and in two years, Levis and Young could be the next Manning-Brady, because it does take more than a season for a rookie qb.
I think a ton of potentially good qbs are never given the chance to grow due to the teams that draft them. Between switching OCs or HCs every year, teams not getting rookies help, and general dysfunction, there’s no real chance for some rookies to be able to grow. They are thrown into the fire while management keeps pouring gasoline on the flames.
Their preseason over/under was 5.5 wins. I think everyone knows CJ isn’t the only improvement this team made but there was nothing before the season to suggest that they would be as good as they are now. That’s not all on CJ, but he’s getting the spotlight because he’s the QB and this really is a question of what perception will GMs take in the future after this season.
Also the line about people that probably shouldn’t be GMs. I can name you current GMs that absolutely should not be GMs lol. This idea that GMs wouldn’t be susceptible to seeing this and trying to replicate it is crazy. The thing most these GMs do best is chase trends. It’s not crazy to think this doesn’t influence their decision making to some degree at all.
No, but there is something to be said about teams that have expensive middling QBs giving an experienced mid-late round Rookie a chance.
Purdy + Dak are great examples of how a disciplined, collegiately experienced QB can be a real value to an already good roster.
Getting cheap at QB and better at other spots is likely the new strategy.
I am looking right at the Seahawks when I say this. They could add 2 more significant pieces if they go rookie QB next year and be a legit roster. Similar story with the Vikings.
I don’t think so. The entire reason Stroud is getting so much praise is because he’s playing so abnormally insane