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Cake day: October 25th, 2023

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  • And, as evidenced by his 2019 season where he barely had over 3,000 passing yards, the volume passing starts aren’t a prerequisite to winning MVP

    You’re right that volumetric passing stats aren’t a hard prerequisite. But he did have 1,206 rushing yards and 9 rushing TDs to go with his 3,127 passing yards and league leading 36 passing touchdowns to total 4,333 yards and 45 touchdowns. So overall a very productive year when you count his work on the ground.

    This year so far he’s on pace for 3,690 passing yards, 17 passing TDs, 831 rushing yards, 9 rushing touchdowns to total: 4,521 yards and 26 touchdowns. And I think it’s that clear drop in scoring that has people wondering why he’s being considered so highly for MVP, a 19 TD drop from his MVP season.

    His ANY/A, which correlates pretty closely with the QB who ends up winning MVP has dropped from his MVP winning season of 8.19 to 6.88. Anything over 8.00 is pretty elite and almost every MVP winner has had an ANY/A over 8. Anything below 7.00 is fairly pedestrian and closer to being league average.

    So overall his efficiency and scoring are way down from his previous MVP season. So I think without watching the tape to wonder why he’s being thought of so highly right now other than the Ravens being good. But that’s just as much if not more because of their #1 ranked defense.