Unless he turns it around in a big way next year, yes, absolutely.

Not only did they give him $230 million guaranteed, but they traded a king’s ransom to get him. Three 1sts, a 3rd, and a 4th in return for Watson and a 5th is almost as much as Washington gave up to draft RG3 (three 1sts and a 2nd), and they got him on a rookie contract that only ended up paying RG3 around $21m total for his entire time there.

It’s worse than the Haynesworth contract, for example, both in terms of sheer financial cost and in terms of setting the team back for years in a much worse way. It’s worse tha. The JaMarcus Russell rookie contract by a mile when you factor in the draft picks spent in the trade.

As of right now, Watson has played a total of 12 games (including the ones he left early due to injury) for the Browns and amassed a total of 2200 yards, 14 TD, and 9 INT across two seasons, at the cost of over $91 million. Without even mentioning the draft picks they gave up for him, that is absolutely ridiculous.

Real big, fantastic athlete, was super efficient in college despite low volume, plus it was the Saints that drafted him. Sean Payton’s entire offense was built around creating mismatches, and Graham was a matchup nightmare – too fast and shifty for LB coverage, too big for DB coverage, redzone TD machine. We had Colston dominating in a similar role, so Graham just added another layer of that. Two big-bodied receiving threats like them on the field meant that we didn’t need guys like Henderson and Meachem to be anything other than fast.

Also he was a 3rd round pick. He’s more like the TE version of Cardale Jones but actually good. His 17 career receptions in college resulted in over 200 yards and 5 TD’s.

At this point, unless you’re truly on a completely different level in terms of both stats and impact, having at least one Super Bowl ring is a requirement in addition to having the stats, accolades, and longevity.

Look at the guys in that general tier you’re discussing: Ben, Eli, Ryan, and Rivers, in broad strokes.

• Ben has 64,000 yards, 418 TD’s, and 2 rings.

• Ryan has 63,000 yards, 381 TD’s, and no rings, with 1 MVP.

• Rivers has 63,000 yards, 421 TD’s, and no rings.

• Eli has 57,000 yards, 366 TD’s, and 2 rings.

Frankly, they’re all about the same. The Super bowls are what set them apart, plus Ryan’s MVP.

To me, Ben gets in and Eli gets in. Ryan has an edge over Rivers thanks to his MVP, but while I could see all 4 of them getting in eventually, the clear line to draw is SB rings.

Like you said, everyone in the modern game with a long career as a starter will have the volume stats. We really do have to look more firmly at “what did you win and were you inarguably elite?” Eli wasn’t “inarguably elite,” but he does have the volume stats and the two rings put him over the top. To be perfectly honest, beating the undefeated Pats in 2007 is the kind of storybook win that earns him a spot in the hall even if it was his only ring IMO, and then he beat Brady in the SB again just for shits and giggles.

Rodgers 100% lock. Mahomes 99% – he’d get criticized for only playing 6 seasons as a starter, but 2 SB rings, 2 MVP’s, 2 SBMVP’s, 5 pro bowls, and 2 All Pros kind of counters any arguments about longevity IMO. Maybe it just prevents him from being 1st ballot. You could make an argument for Wilson and Stafford, but I definitely wouldn’t call either one a lock.

Looking at the other veteran QB’s, honestly I don’t think anyone else makes the cut if they retire today. We’ve seen the full turnover of generations in the past few years. The great QB generation of 2000-2020 is gone. Brady, Manning, Manning 2, Brees, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Ryan, Warner and Favre if you want to include them, are all retired. Rodgers, Wilson, and Stafford are all at the end of their careers. Even guys like Newton, Palmer, Romo, and McNabb, that sort of made up that 2nd tier, are all retired. The top QB’s currently are all too young and haven’t accomplished anywhere near enough yet, and the best veterans that still have a decent stretch ahead of them are… Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, and Derek Carr? No one has really accomplished anything notable.