Donald Trump would be on track to win a historic landslide in November ā if so many US voters didnāt find him personally repugnant.
Roughly 53 percent of Americans have anĀ unfavorable opinionĀ of the former president. And yet, when asked about Trumpās ability to handle key issues ā or the impact of hisĀ policiesĀ āĀ voters routinelyĀ giveĀ the Republican candidate higher marks thanĀ President Biden.
In aĀ YouGov surveyĀ released this month, Trump boasted an advantage over Biden on 10 of the 15 issues polled. On the three issues that votersĀ routinely nameĀ as top priorities ā theĀ economy, immigration, and inflation ā respondents said that Trump would do a better job by double-digit margins.
Meanwhile, in aĀ recent New York Times/Siena College poll,Ā 40 percent of voters said that Trumpās policies had helped them personally, while just 18 percent said the same of Biden. If Americans could elect a normal human being with Trumpās reputation for being ātoughā on immigration and good at economics, they would almost certainly do so.
Biden is fortunate that voters do not have that option. But to erase TrumpāsĀ small but stubborn leadĀ in the polls, the president needs to erode his GOP rivalās advantage on the issues.
This is the chunk youāre complaining about? They didnāt even refute the poll they just donāt like that data. And thatās after consistently complaining about polls that were marked as toss-ups.
Like please respond to the first one. Because the polls got Oz vs. Fetterman largely correct and itās the first example of a miss which should be the strongest one.
No, it isnāt, and i responded to your first reply four days ago when you originally replied.
If you are expecting every single pull to be inconsistent by the exact same amount, youāre going to be disappointed.
Some polls are off by 1% some are off by 15% some are off by more.
Theyāre not all from identical elections, and thereās not always an identical number of people voting or people being polled.
Polls are consistently inaccurate,is the point here.
If a pill has a Ā± of 5-7 percent with 90% confidence. And you have ten polls, You would expect at least one to be off by more that 5-7%. What your describing is expected.
Right, polls are consistently inaccurate and should not be counted on as foundational predictors of political conclusions.
If I tell you that a rocket is going to land withing a 20ft circle 90% of the time and land 9 rockets in the circle and 1 out of it; was I accurate or inaccurate in your mind?
Consistently inaccurate.
At least 10 percent of the time the rocket will consistently land inaccurately.
Further, if we more accurately pair your analogy with political polls determining an accurate election result, the rocket will consistently land inaccurately the other 90% of the time as well.
So youāre complaint is that people are telling you, āYou have this percentage chance of this being realityā and then youāre mad that theyāre unable to be more accurate? Itās polling itās not fortune-telling.
Where are you getting that Iām mad?
Iām not complaining.
People are drawing illogical conclusions from false premises.
Iām reminding people that drawing conclusions from flawed premises leads to flawed conclusions.
My apologies I misread your tone.