- cross-posted to:
- nyt_gift_articles@sopuli.xyz
- cross-posted to:
- nyt_gift_articles@sopuli.xyz
This works because almost all the US uses first-past-the-post elections for the Presidential general election. So you get outcomes like this:
Scenario 1:
Biden: 10 votes
Trump: 9 votes
Kennedy/Stein/West: 0 votes
Biden wins the state
Scenario 2:
Biden: 9 votes
Trump: 9 votes
Kennedy/Stein/West: 1 vote
Tied vote, decided by game of chance/lawsuit
Scenario 3:
Biden: 8 votes
Trump: 9 votes
Kennedy/Stein/West: 2 votes
Trump wins the state
This is why you see huge financial support from Republican billionaires for third party candidates who have no chance of winning.
What makes these financers so sure their spoiler candidates will only take votes from Biden?
Polling. Right now the polls show RFK and West pulling from Biden more than Trump, which is why right wing strategists want to promote those candidates more.
Edit:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4568220-biden-trump-kennedy-polling/amp/
It kinda makes them look even more short sighted tbh. Like yeah, you can look at “there’s a few polls where he takes from Biden” and call it a day, but it’s kinda missing the fact he’s lost a lot of relevance already with no signs of stopping.
It’s kind of a catch 22: he’s stealing votes from the low-info pool, but at the same time if he’s not defined at all he’ll make no impact by election day. Elevating him can fix that, but that risks those low info voters realizing what they’re getting into and then start biting into Trump’s numbers as expected.
They don’t need that. All they need is to take more votes from Biden than they do from Trump. And the the polling makes it very clear that the 3rd party candidates as a group do exactly that. The benefit is something around a 3 percentage point advantage for Trump with the 3rd party candidates on the ballot vs not.
Yeah idk, I haven’t heard any Dems say they’re going to break from Biden for someone like RFK, the dude is an anti science nut job and at least my circles see right through it. I have heard trumpists say they’d consider him if trump ended up in jail or whatever though. 🤷
Hopefully this strategy backfires spectacularly.
Honestly, the bigger issue for dems has always been low enthusiasm leading to a lot of voters just refusing to vote.
So far the polls don’t show that kind of backfire. Would take a bunch more people hearing about why he’s actually running to create it.
Republicans have done this for decades to great success. Usually they’ll push a wedge-driving issue with online operatives sometimes posing as grandstanding leftists who will vote 3rd party, independent, etc.
It rarely works for Dems, but Libertarians did screw over Trump to some extent last election thanks to Jojo
“Shit, Rita, that’s what we’re getting paid to do, not what we’re getting paid to say!”
This is ‘splitting the vote’ nonsense. We wouldn’t support your candidate if they were the only person on the ballot.
This is ‘splitting the vote’ nonsense. We wouldn’t support your candidate if they were the only person on the ballot.