I often disagree with your perspective on the Biden admin but I think you’re dead right with this. I don’t think there’s any voice of reason in this administration. I think there’s a good chance they actually think Russian nukes won’t work, and if they do the blowback is acceptable to them as well.

I think Biden is basically saying “If you wanna end this empire, then we’ll hit this fucking button. We’ll do it. We ain’t no pussies.” and is acting consistently with that viewpoint, but at the last second, as his fist is coming down on the big red button, it’ll hover and the red telephones will call and civilization will continues. The US probably still has institutional knowledge that MAD is still a operational concept (at the deep state level with the actual empire custodians in the actual rooms where actual decisions are made, not rhetoric or propaganda), but the last three decades of near-total non-opposition has made their restraint atrophy, and in the smoke-filled rooms they are battling it out between “it would be completely counterproductive to end the world even if our world empire is under threat, in the worst case scenario we can still be a very strong capitalist power in a capitalist world system, we can do business with the Russians and Chinese, I’ve got the CEOs of multiple megacorporations on speed dial and their businesses would be really hurt by cutting off Russia and especially China, it’s all fine, we just need to make sure NATO remains intact so we have a market for our weapons” and “we’re the goddamn USA, we can bomb anywhere and infiltrate anywhere and allow our monopolies to dominate anywhere, why shouldn’t we just march in with our forces? what’s the big problem here? are you old fuckers who experienced the Cold War scared of little old Russia? are we seriously letting Putin beat us, that guy we installed as leader?”

the warhawks in and outside the Biden admin are very clearly deeply afraid of losing their hegemony, which explains why they’re acting increasingly brazenly and starting wars in as many places as they can and threatening the use of nukes (or actions that would clearly lead to nuclear exchanges), but I think it’s just (extremely dangerous) bluster in my opinion. it’s a wounded animal that is snarling and lunging. of course, however, the closer you get to the nuclear threshold, the greater the risk of accidents, so intentions might not matter at the end of the day.

But regardless of whether it is bluster or not, geopolitics has to continue and the contradictions will keep mounting. Russia can’t, and more importantly realistically won’t, be like “Well, shit. The nuclear superpower is threatening us in our existential war. I suppose we’ll just give up and become yet another American neocolony.” The DPRK didn’t decide to give up just because their invader had nukes, nor did the Vietnamese. It’s not the ultimate trump card that stops history itself from progressing, America is still perfectly capable of eating shit despite having nukes. So nuclear war isn’t really something I worry about. If America is truly, totally committed to just nuking the planet if their empire is in the process of disintegration, and if that disintegration is inevitable because of the contradictions prying the empire apart just like every single fallen empire in human history, then why worry? If it’s definitely going to happen, we might as well just get it over with right now so we can rise out of the ashes faster. If America isn’t ready to press that button to save their empire, then why worry? The empire will fall and socialism will, hopefully, soon follow. I think Mao was basically right on this point. He was also correct about Italians, which is always good.

Of course, from the most important position - which is, obviously, that of winning internet arguments - the best part of the nuclear-war-won’t-happen side is that I am undunkable. If it happens and I’m wrong, then I and most of us here are probably dead, dying, or have much better things to worry about, and the internet is dead so I can’t be owned. Whereas every year that goes by, the nuclear-war-will-happen side has to continually justify their position and lack of said nuclear war.

You need to start thinking like a madman and what insane people would do in situation like this.

Gog and Magog are at work in Europe

That tracks with the number of times Russia has warned Ukraine and the US off using a dirty bomb (which Ukraine certainly has enough fissile material to produce with relative ease)

Nixonmaxxing

Russia should just use nukes on europe at this point. Not on france or the uk since they could retaliate with their own nukes, but other states should be fair game. Yeah there’s the american nuclear umbrella but I doubt they’ll risk their own hides for a bunch of swedes, balts, krauts or whatever

I don’t have a great understanding of internal Ukraine political power, but I assume the various elites in Lviv and Kiev and nazis are at odds and the Americans haven’t picked a candidate to form a coalition around

God willing, little Z on a lamppost might bring some solace to mothers he stole sons from.

Honestly, we’ve been hearing this for at least a year now. Every time the mainstream media print something about Ukraine losing, people interpret it as the US getting ready to negotiate for peace.

The fact is that not only have we not seen any indication of the US trying to ramp things down, they have gone to the opposite direction and doubled down on nuclear escalation and threats against Russia.

I think we need to be prepared to concede that our interpretations were wrong: that, perhaps, the mainstream propaganda no longer feel the need to put the mask on anymore.

The alternative is nuclear war.