I don’t think we can cite a trend when the last two, soon to be there rounds have been with Trump on the R side. A sizable part of the gains can be attributed to people desperately looking to keep him out rather than any grand shift in attitudes of the state.
Look at the results for Governor and that with the way they’ve behaved on immigration, abortion, educational standards. That should be more telling.
Here’s a comparison of Bill Clinton’s, Al Gore’s, and Barack Obama’s election results in Florida:
Election Year
Democratic Candidate
Vote Percentage
Republican Candidate
Vote Percentage
Margin
1992
Bill Clinton
39.0%
George H. W. Bush
40.89%
-1.89%
2000
Al Gore
48.84%
George W. Bush
48.85%
-0.01%
2008
Barack Obama
50.91%
John McCain
48.09%
+2.82%
Florida is reliably blue now, right? Since 2010, the Hispanic proportion of the state has grown by 5 percentage points while the white proportion has shrunk by a similar number. It’s gotta be like Dem +8 by now.
Florida is different because conservatives move there when they retire or to escape COVID restrictions. And don’t forget, those Latinos in Florida are Cuban, so race isn’t as good an indicator.
Texas is really opposite. It’s getting large influxes of left-wing voters each year.
Here’s a comparison of Barack Obama’s, Hillary Clinton’s, and Joe Biden’s election results in Texas:
This is the trend
I don’t think we can cite a trend when the last two, soon to be there rounds have been with Trump on the R side. A sizable part of the gains can be attributed to people desperately looking to keep him out rather than any grand shift in attitudes of the state.
Look at the results for Governor and that with the way they’ve behaved on immigration, abortion, educational standards. That should be more telling.
Here’s a comparison of Bill Clinton’s, Al Gore’s, and Barack Obama’s election results in Florida:
Florida is reliably blue now, right? Since 2010, the Hispanic proportion of the state has grown by 5 percentage points while the white proportion has shrunk by a similar number. It’s gotta be like Dem +8 by now.
Florida is different because conservatives move there when they retire or to escape COVID restrictions. And don’t forget, those Latinos in Florida are Cuban, so race isn’t as good an indicator.
Texas is really opposite. It’s getting large influxes of left-wing voters each year.