Small percentages changes in turnout can still affect close elections like this. Things like this can absolutely affect dampen trump turnout or boost it on the opposite side
Polls averages don’t capture turnout all that well. They kind of have to make assumptions about it to weight things. If they’re off about it, election results csn end up being rather different
But what we can look at is voter enthusiasm polling which is down for trump. In 2020, polling suggested there was a voter enthusiasm gap favoring trump. Today it’s flipped
The race is still far far closer than it should be but these things don’t necessarily have zero effect either
Small percentages changes in turnout can still affect close elections like this. Things like this can absolutely affect dampen trump turnout or boost it on the opposite side
The last few months of clownfuckery from
didn’t even move the needle among his supporters.
Polls averages don’t capture turnout all that well. They kind of have to make assumptions about it to weight things. If they’re off about it, election results csn end up being rather different
But what we can look at is voter enthusiasm polling which is down for trump. In 2020, polling suggested there was a voter enthusiasm gap favoring trump. Today it’s flipped
The race is still far far closer than it should be but these things don’t necessarily have zero effect either