Kamala Harris will campaign in the Lone Star State, not because she expects to win Texas, but because she wants to shine a light on Texas’ abortion ban.

  • GlendatheGayWitch@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    100
    ·
    1 month ago

    Tx has been moving towards flipping blue.

    Clinton lost by ~800,000 votes (5% of registered voters) and Biden lost by ~640,000 votes (~3.5% of registered voters). This year, TX is breaking records for early voting turnout, and, historically speaking, Democrats win with high turnout. In just 4 days, TX has cast almost 1/4 as many votes as the entire 2020 election and that’s during the first week of early voting when the polls are only required to be open 9 hours a day. We still haven’t seen the turnout for this weekend or next week, when polls are open at least 12 hours a day.

    https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2024?count_prefix=final_eday_voted_count_&state=TX&view_type=state

      • GlendatheGayWitch@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        17
        arrow-down
        1
        ·
        1 month ago

        There will be Trump supporters for sure. But don’t forget Trump received more votes in CA than TX in 2020 and Biden received more votes in TX than NY.

        Hopefully Millenials and Gen Z will step up this election to keep the Republicans from bringing back the Lavender Scare.

    • UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      4
      ·
      1 month ago

      Democrats win with high turnout.

      Lupe Valdez’s 3.5M votes in 2018 was about the same number of votes Beto received in 2022. The shrinking gulf is largely coming from a sag in Republican turnout year-over-year. And GOP favorables aren’t so bad that the party doesn’t consistently beat Democrats in high turnout races.

      Maybe this year will be a game changer, but Dems would have to beat a 5-7 pt pad for Trump and at least a 4 pt pad for Cruz. Not holding my breath.