Image is of Assad and his family.


After less than two weeks of retreating with few shots fired and little resistance, the SAA has retreated into, well, a state of non-existence. This thereby ends a conflict that has been simmering for over a decade. With the end of this conflict, another begins: the carving up of what used to be Syria between Israel and Turkey, with perhaps the odd Syrian faction getting a rump state here and there. Both Israel and Turkey have begun military operations, with Israel working on expanding their territory in Syria and bombing military bases to ensure as little resistance as possible.

Israeli success in Syria is interesting to contrast against their failures in Gaza and Lebanon. A short time ago, Israel failed to make significant territorial progress in Lebanon due to Hezbollah’s resistance despite the heavy hits they had recently taken, and was forced into a ceasefire with little to show for the manpower and equipment lost and the settlers displaced. The war with Lebanon was fast, but still slow enough to allow a degree of analysis and prediction. In contrast, the sheer speed of Syria’s collapse has made analysis near-impossible beyond obvious statements like “this is bad” and “Assad is fucking up”; by the time a major Syrian city had fallen, you barely had time to digest the implications before the next one was under threat.

There is still too much that we don’t know about the potential responses (and non-responses) of other countries in the region - Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, and Russia, for example. I think that this week and the next will see a lot of statements made by various parties and an elucidation of how the conflict will progress. The only thing that seems clear is that we are in the next stage of the conflict, and perhaps have been, in retrospect, since Nasrallah’s assassination. This stage has been and will be far more chaotic as the damage to Israel compounds and they are willing to take greater and greater risks to stay in power. It will also involve Israel causing destruction all throughout the region, rather than mostly localizing it in Gaza and southern Lebanon. Successful gambles like with Syria may or may not outweigh the unsuccessful ones like with Lebanon. This is a similar road to the one apartheid South Africa took, but there are also too many differences to say if the destination will be the same.

What is certain is that Assad’s time in power can be summarized as a failure, both to be an effective leader and to create positive economic conditions. His policies were actively harmful to internal stability for no real payoff and by the end, all goodwill had been fully depleted. By the end, the SAA did not fight back; not because of some wunderwaffen on the side of HST, but because there was nothing to fight for, and internal cohesion rapidly disintegrated.


Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week’s thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • companero [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    19 hours ago

    https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1hbtgt1/ru_pov_multiple_perspectives_on_ukrainian_atacms/

    https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1hbt89e/ru_pov_remains_of_an_atacms_missile_near_the/

    There was another strike this morning against Russia proper with US-provided ATACMS missiles. This time in Taganrog in the Rostov region (nowhere near Kursk).

    https://t.me/kalibrated/16617

    Russian MoD confirmed it and there are also casualties at the site struck.

    • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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      17 hours ago

      Saw it last night. Apparently energy infrastructure was hit along with the aircraft repair centre using drones as well, though I’m unsure on the details. I wonder how Russia will respond, NATO is playing a dangerous game with these strikes. I don’t think Russia will indulge them with a harsh response directly though. Probably another attack on Ukraine.

    • FLAMING_AUBURN_LOCKS [she/her]@hexbear.net
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      19 hours ago

      Important context— Taganrog sits on the shore of the Sea of Azov, between Russian Azov and Ukraining Mariupol. this strike is closer to the (pre-war) Ukrainian border than the first one

      • companero [he/him]@hexbear.net
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        18 hours ago

        Yeah, I thought about this too. For that reason, I guess Ukraine can argue that it’s not really a “long range strike”.

        Putin is a giant cuck, so he might accept this argument, but IMO it’s a really bad idea to let your enemies do these kinds of mental gymnastics.

        According to the rules previously set out by Russia, Ukraine would require US troops to input targeting data for any long range strikes, which would count as US participation in the strike on Russia. It shouldn’t technically matter where the pre-war borders were.

    • miz [any, any]@hexbear.net
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      18 hours ago

      EDIT: I didn’t look up where Taganrog was so it’s not as clear an escalation as I feared. there’s weasel room as FLAMING_AUBURN_LOCKS mentions


      to match this clear escalation Russia would have to strike something outside of Ukraine with an Oreshnik this time

      as mentioned by MoA here, the most likely target is the US missile defense base in Poland

      MOSCOW, November 21. /TASS/. The US missile defense base in Poland has long been considered a priority target for potential neutralization by the Russian Armed Forces, Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated during a briefing.

      “Given the level of threats posed by such Western military facilities, the missile defense base in Poland has long been included among the priority targets for potential neutralization. If necessary, this can be achieved using a wide range of advanced weaponry,” the diplomat said.

      • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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        18 hours ago

        I don’t think it’ll happen, another massive strike on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure with strategic bombers is more likely. Russia have already made preparations for such. It was the first of these strikes by Russia this winter that tipped the scales and resulted in the US, UK and France allowing Ukraine to use long range weapons on Russian soil, along with the rate of Russian advances, in my opinion.

        • Commiejones [comrade/them, he/him]@hexbear.netM
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          12 hours ago

          I’m with you on them not hitting things in poland but I think Putin has to ratchet things up because usa isn’t learning its lessons. It requires more than just another bombing run against the barely existing power system. The oreshnik strike really scared nato for a moment but the moment passed. Russia has to move past trying to use fear and has to use pain to make their message clear.

          They need to do something that doesnt activate nato but also is a material loss for usa. My guess is either a strike against large american assets in ukraine (like the embasy or weapons depot in Lviv) or possibly against an american asset in Syira, Iraq or international waters.

          • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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            12 hours ago

            If I was in charge I’d push the button and bomb some NATO bases, so we should be glad that I’m not in charge I guess. But Russia does have to take some action to establish deterrence, so their threats don’t seem empty.