- cross-posted to:
- economy@lemmy.world
- cross-posted to:
- economy@lemmy.world
Summary
Tesla reported its first annual decline in deliveries, with 1.79 million vehicles delivered in 2024 compared to 1.81 million in 2023.
Fourth-quarter deliveries (495,570) fell short of analyst estimates, causing Tesla shares to drop 7%.
Challenges included rising competition in Europe and China, declining sales despite price cuts, and growing inventory of Cybertrucks.
Analysts cited CEO Elon Musk’s political involvement as a potential distraction.
While Tesla plans to release lower-cost autonomous vehicles in 2025, its lack of affordable EVs and intensified competition have strained its market dominance.
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Bear in mind - Tesla is massively overvalued.
I think Tesla is fairly valued.
That’s … the stock being overvalued lol
Holy hell that really puts things in perspective 😮
Could you explain it to me? (no sarcasm) It seems to be saying that the stock prices are way out of balance to what it’s worth. Are there regulations around that?
Edit: I’m talking about the Market Cap part. I don’t understand how the value can be that high compared to all of the other companies, especially China.
Market capitalization is just simple math, multiplying a company’s stock price by the number of shares that have been issued. Tesla has issued roughly 3.2 billion shares and is currently trading at around $550, which makes their current market cap about $1.75 trillion dollars.
I don’t understand how the value can be that high compared to all of the other companies, especially China.
On its face it seems utterly nonsensical that Tesla is worth as much as all other auto makers combined, when Tesla only accounts for something like 5% of total US car sales. There are two reasons I can think of why this is currently so:
- Tesla accounts for roughly half of all US electric vehicle sales, and electric vehicle sales are roughly 10% of all US vehicle sales. If electric vehicles largely replace ICE vehicles and if Tesla maintains that share of EV sales, then Tesla will be an extremely valuable company. Investors might be betting on a) electric vehicles and b) Tesla continuing to the win the lion’s share of electric vehicle sales.
- Tesla investors are irrational. Personally, my money is on this one. I think long-term Tesla is going to get crushed by cheaper and better-built EVs, probably from China but also possibly from other existing car manufacturers. Sometimes I’m tempted to short Tesla’s stock based on this belief, but to quote John Maynard Keynes: “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
It’s more that Tesla is a bubble. The thing with bubbles is that it’s actually completely rational to buy into them while they’re inflating. As long as you get out before they pop, you can make a ton of money.
Rational might be stretching it a bit. There’s a reason this is called the Greater Fool Theory.
It’s rational on an individual level because you can know it’s a bubble, know the company is overvalued and yet still conclude that the best move is to buy. It’s risky, but the question is if the risk/reward ratio is better or worse than the alternatives. In the case of TSLA, you’d have made well over 10x your money if you had bought in 2019. It’s why bubbles keep happening despite everyone knowing they exist and will pop eventually.
All of that, plus an additional bit of irrationally, since SpaceX is private, some investors are in Tesla with the idea that some future corporate action will cause Tesla shares to eventually include SpaceX ownership as well.
I subscr to the theory that Tesla is valued not as an automotive stock but as a tech stock. Companies like Toyota and VW are valued wildly different from companies like Google and Amazon and tesla has long pushed for everyone to think of it as far more like apple than like Honda, with quite a bit of success. That’s why Elon does his whole Tony stark/Steve jobs routine and swears full self driving and other revolutionary tech. Because otherwise you have to look at his vehicles as the gilded Yugos they are that do have some really great aspects, but ones that are now being done by companies like Hyundai that can actually assemble a car well
Thank you for explaining it so well. I thought that was what it was, but it seems insane to be valued that much higher to investors. Turns out, it probably is insane.
And remember if you want to try to cash in on this information “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”
The entire circle represents total value for all car makers. Area taken up is their ratio of the total. It’s geographically colour coded.
Tesla makes a lot more profit per car sold than the other OEMs, and part of the stock price assumed continued growth which would mean even more record profits.
In 2023, Tesla made more net profit than Ford and GM combined on their 1.8m vehicles compared to their 10.6m. Tesla also had really strong growth until this year, and extrapolating the growth and the profits they make led to a higher price. (edit: and in 2022 GM/Ford combined were just slightly above Tesla)
Tesla also has their energy division which is growing rapidly and has better margins than the cars (>100% YoY growth in 2024 and potentially > 100% in 2025)
Nowadays though, it’s more on the future potential of FSD/Robotics which is a huge wildcard.
People don’t see Ford or GM or Toyota massively expanding so they don’t get a higher P/E ratio. In actuality, they’ve got years of suffering ahead of them during the transition.
Then you have companies like Nissan failing being one of the first domino’s in the EV transition, and VW getting destroyed in China causing massive layoffs (25%) and a planned 700k vehicle reduction in 2025.
I’m not saying they deserve the price they have today, but it’s more than just cars sold to get to a number, it’s looking at future potential.
Yep, no problems here whatsoever.
You need another of these to go with it that shows these companies in terms of revenue.
Seriously, I’d love to see this chart, earnings chart and PE ratio chart to really see the whole picture
I don’t have a chart for you but
2023 net profit
Toyota - 31.82b
VW AG- 17.331B
Tesla - 14.999b
BMW - 12.165B
GM - 10.1b
Ford - 4.347B
BYD - 4.16B
Edit: Just to preempt this, yes Tesla is suffering a lot more this year with the EV price wars, for the first 3 quarters, they’re at 4.78b this year, whereas GM for example is at 8.97B. GM doesn’t make a lot of profits (if any) on their EVs, but they still have ICE vehicles to fall back on whereas Tesla doesn’t.
So the graphic shows the overvalued stock as proof of it being fairly valued?
My guess is there’s an invisible /s there
It takes a lot of guts to omit the /s these days. You can never be quite sure who’s funny and who’s just an idiot.
Por que no los both?
I saw it
I think most did
Felt it in me bones
The graphic doesn’t draw any conclusions, does it?
Not at all. The billionaire oligarchs are in on the plan. They’re using Tesla to get even more rich. They’ll pull out/short just before something happens to cause Tesla to lose all it’s value.
It’s more like a variant game of chicken. The longer everyone stays in the higher the value goes, but once people start bailing you better hope you sold enough for it to be worthwhile. The big investors set the game but they’re also the most constrained because if they pull out entirely or quickly they can pop the bubble and they may not be able to sell their shares fast enough to get all their money before shares plummet.
Technically that thing has already happened. Or, is still happening I guess.
Nissan conspicuously absent
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Nissan and Renault have 15% cross-ownership each. Both are separate entities with separate market caps. The total displayed for Renault does not reflect the total for Nissan.
They must have thrown it into “other” along with Mitsubishi which is also in merger talks with Honda.
Truly Elon is a Savant of our time to build such an incredibly successful company while failing to even capture an appreciable proportion of actual sales. Real “voice of a generation” level shit.
What on Earth are you talking about? Someone posted a thing above that shows Tesla at #3 in profits.That’s pretty big. The dude sucks, and he’s openly tossing money around trying to influence elections, and he is a known liar and fraud. The company is way overvalued. You don’t have to exaggerate and say Tesla fails at selling cars to criticize him.
But Tesla does fail at selling cars. They’re an unprofitable company that sells far fewer cars than their bloated valuation justifies.
Their revenue is about half of Ford’s.
Shocked Ferrari is worth more than Volkswagen. I wonder how much of that is F1-related.
Now do one that counts vehicles delivered.
I mean, all that proves is that the Stock Market is completely irrational and always has been and using as a metric for whether or not “the economy” is doing good has always been a fucking farce.
Tesla isn’t the only massively overvalued company in existence at the moment, just the biggest and most obvious example.
Theranos was valued at around $9 billion before it all came out that it was a scam.
Damn, I remember that reddit post about the lab rat being told to falsify evidence or lie. I have a friend who’s in the industry and he was going crazy about it.
The day that bubble bursts will be hilarious. I’ll probably grab popcorn and livestream Twitter for Musky’s meltdown
It took some work, but I got them out of my 401k. So many funds have TSLA stock.
- Piss off liberals who are pro-environment.
- Align himself to MAGA who loves their gas guzzlers
They may not love their gas guzzlers after a year of super high gas prices.
Can’t wait for the “I did that!” stickers.
No, they absolutely still do. They just bitch about it more and blame the president.
When gas hit over $4 a gallon here in Texas, it barely moved the needle on sales of smaller vehicles. Those that did change vehicles went right back to that Ford F950 the second it came back down. Like, no one learned their lesson.
We’re three days from the switch to “the president doesn’t control gas prices “ in the moronsphere that is maga.
Remember who the president is going to be this time.
Oh they’ll still blame President Biden
Or Pelosi, or the Democrats or whoever.
That’s the disconnect in maga brains. It’s a democrats fault when they are president. It’s foreign countries fault when it’s a republican president.
Well obviously Obama did this, and Hunter Biden.
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MAGA also like cutting spending and Space X relies on billions of tax funding. So buy yourself a president and run fake department that aims at cutting spending so you can be at the table to not cut space X. Maybe let space X “absorb” NASA
And then he called American tech workers removed. Insulting your customer base is an interesting choice.
You can say RETARDED.
Let’s not sugar coat what this fucker said.
Actually I can’t. You’ll notice you weren’t able to either
You see that is not his goal. It is to capture everyone. He already had and still has a lot of liberals. How do you grow your base then? Obviously appeal to the other side.
It is not an either or thing for him, he wants to fool everyone. You see this behavior in a lot of attention seeking pick me bitches.
Hoped for a loss of more than 20,000 tbh
I bought into the shit he was marketing back in 2019. I got a Model 3 and a single share of Tesla stock, and realized pretty quickly after a year of FSD not improving that Elon was full of shit. Some time later that one share turned into three because tesla did a stock split so elon could buy twitter, then sometime after shareholders approved a 50 billion pay package (not me).
So when he bought the republican party and the stock shot up, I got out. Didn’t make any money, but fuck that guy. I cannot stand this Mfer or his shitty companies.
Is musk going to tweet something about a new, futuristic project that Tesla has coming up that he’s just ripping off from an 80s sci-fi movie again so the stock price bumps back up?
Tesla’s stock price has been firmly disconnected from reality for a while now so probably
I think cars bore him now that he can play statesman
The 6000 SUX
New Tesla Model FSB
Deliveries are the closest approximation of sales reported by Tesla but are not precisely defined in the company’s shareholder communications.
You know, I’m really tired of our country just letting this guy make up whatever fucking metrics he wants, and then we run everything on those fucking wrong-ass metrics. He did the same thing with Twitter and “impressions.” It’s all about lying through your teeth about what’s really happening and using metrics and statistics to confuse people.
A delivery isn’t the same as a sale, not even close. For instance, they also deliver vehicles after repair.
good thing there a lot of those nowadays :D
I’m amazed there is still 1.79 people who don’t follow the news or how much of a toddler Musk is.
Nobody wants to invest in anything he touches anymore,and he has shown he will just disable software in vehicles if he feels like it. Wonder how long until he starts targeting his opponents with his vehicles, he’s already doing it with his other platforms.
I don’t get it but it is wrong to say nobody wants to invest in his stuff, look at the stock, it has already bounced back.
Teala isn’t releasing 2 lower cost autonomous vehicles in 2025.
They are releasing 2 lower cost vehicles.
The robo taxi isn’t until 2026 if you make the assumption it’s on time and is autonomous.
Saying teala is releasing 2 autonomous vehicles in 2025 is like saying teala sold 1.79 million autonomous vehicles this year.
The robo taxi isn’t until 2026 if you make the assumption it’s on time and is autonomous.
This reminds me of my old physics assignments:
“Assuming a perfectly spherical cow…”
I want to hear more about this perfectly spherical cow question.
This is a joke ntended to illustrate the sometimes absurd oversimplification that has to be made to do certain calculations. An apple falls out of a tree from 20 feet off the ground, how long does it take to hit the ground. Well, what is the drag coefficient? Assume it’s a sphere. OK, what about the texture, the air temp, wind, is the ground level and flat, etc etc. And as the problems increase in complexity the number of variables increases exponentially. So your professor might tell you to "Assume it is a spherical cow of uniform density“.
Often these estimates are actually quite good and trying to account for all variables isn’t needed.
Sounds like fun. There’s going to be that 1 grad student who is like, but how close of approximation is it really and can we use other knowledge to fine tune it… I’m going to launch a cow with a trebuchet and get some better answers.
Anyone who gets into one of those robo taxis is asking for death.
Any sane government won’t let them on the road until that is decidedly not the case.
Asking for a sane government is a big ask nowadays it seems though.
Hey now the DMV could ban them here in California and then ignore any attempt by the feds to override that, supremacy clause only exists when you have the budget to enforce it after all.
I know this is completely unrelated… but it just made me think of a Robotaxi arriving from Nevada, and the LAPD go in pursuit since they’re illegal in California, then the LAPD decide to do a pit maneuver on it because it doesn’t stop and it kills 2 pedestrians on the street as a result.
Pit maneuver? Isn’t just enough to throw a orange cone on the hood?
The LAPD don’t hire the brightest bunch.
Thats super unrealistic since LAPD would never do that, San Bernardino Sheriff’s Department would total the thing out by Primm or CHP would impound it.
The robo taxi isn’t until 2026 if you make the assumption it’s on time and is autonomous.
Tesla has said Full Self Driving is coming next year for like 9 straight years in a row, and the only thing that came out of that was “obviously FSD is a marketing term, only an idiot would have bought FSD and thought they get an autonomous vehicle”
Space X pushed the hyper loop when California pitched their idea of building high speed rail throughout the state, and once they gave space X a grant and cancelled their plans, he dropped the project.
Tesla’s value comes from vibes and the potential of what some vaporware technology could be worth if they could actually build it.
I mean honestly, if Tesla could build an autonomous vehicle that could pay for itself in 1 year from taxi fares, why would they sell that to the public? They’d make way more keeping it to themselves or maybe franchising it out. A complete monopoly on the autonomous taxi industry sold for $45,000? Yeah, right.
I’m just trying to correct the article dude. It was blatantly wrong, sloppy writing.
I shake my head at Tesla drivers and throw a hand job gesture to every wankpanzer I see. There isn’t enough public shaming of fascists and their enablers.
Yesterday, my wife saw a cybertruck for the first time. She went “wtf. Is that fugly thing a cybertruck?” I guess the pictures didn’t do it justice.
I thought it was maybe a hard vehicle to photograph… Surely it can’t be that bad, right? Then I saw one in person and realized the photos made it look good by comparison. …
When it’s moving, it’s worse. I laugh my ass off.
You can see the misaligned panels from half a block away
It looks like a mobile dumpster.
Dumpsters are really good at what they do. This thing could get away with being ugly if it was ugly by necessity
They really don’t. They look like they were drawn by a 7 year old.
My 7 year old thinks they’re absolutely great. His reasoning: “because that’s exactly how I would design it!” He proceeded to draw a cybertruck indistinguishable from the thing you see in real life. I was horrified, because it proved to me everything I needed to know about the vehicles design.
Elon Musk drew it himself, and told the engineers exactly how to make it. And because he lacks any apparent skill, his drawing ended up looking exactly like a 7-year olds imaginary truck.
Yeah I mentally expected compact car size because they kind of look like those angular shitboxes from the 90s. I think they were geos? But they’re like twice as big and four times as shitty.
It is really the dumbest vehicle made in quite some time.
A lot of people bought these cars before it was obvious who Elon was.
The Model 3 released in late 2017, while the “Pedo guy” thing happened in late 2018, and the “420 funding secured” fraud was before the Model 3 even officially entered production. The “FSD in 6 weeks maybe” BS had been going on from the earliest Model S days, and I can give a very comprehensive list of all the massive red flags that’d been waving from when the first Roadster rolled off the line.
I can give a pass to anything earlier than the Model 3, just because it wasn’t reported on nearly as much and I don’t expect people to follow industry news to the same degree I do, but it was still definitely there for people to see if they wanted to. However, Elon has literally always been a massive piece of shit from day 1, and it’s only gone downhill from there and especially after the Model 3 was starting production. Anyone trying to convince themselves they bought their car before that was “obvious” is coping hard.
Yes. Exceptions are the new model 3s and wankpanzers. All of these people knew.
I actually like Tesla. I just hate Elon more. We came close to buying a Tesla once or twice, but now it’s totally off the table.
I liked Tesla years and years ago too. No more.
what sort of scumbag could own tesla stock, or even buy a tesla in the last year or more, and still sleep at night?
Sociopaths. Money over ethics.
If you have a 401k, IRA, company pension, or any other type of traditional retirement accounts, you likely have some Tesla at least indirectly, and while you might not have direct voting rights, you would at a minimum have ownership of funds that have ownership of Tesla.
I got to vote against Elon’s insane bonus package. It passed, but felt good to vote.
Who do you think is in charge of buying shares for those? Sociopaths.
Yeah if the parking lot full of cyberderps I drove past doay says anything the post preorder sales may be slouching.
On December 24 Tesla’s shares went up by 7%. On December 17 they went down by 8%. Movement like this happens all the time, will we get headlines for each one? Overall, Tesla’s stock price is still up 50% over the past year. I wouldn’t consider this to be all that significant a drop yet. Let’s see what happens with their upcoming product releases.
You’d think the tariffs would be a big booster for them. BYD cars would kill them, but so would BYD batteries used by other automakers.
Autonomous!!! Muahahaha
Good
$tslaq
