Trump is clearly currently ahead by a narrow margin, and Biden has not been clearly ahead since August. So when the person above said “He is polling worse than Trump” in the present tense, they were right.
Ok but that’s his approval rating as being the current president. That doesn’t automatically translate to him losing. For example if I was asked that question I would say I don’t approve of him but given the choice between him and trump I’m picking him. You are using the answer for one question to assume the answer for another.
Here’s Biden vs Trump as well as other potential candidates in swing states to supplement that. He’s losing by up to 8 points in 5/6 swing states as of this Nov 5th poll, that’s also trending in the wrong direction.
And correct this isn’t something where you can say “the poll says this so therefore it’s determined to happen” because we can’t know the future. That’s why we have to take all these factors and see how similar situations turned out before and all that, never assuming absolute certainty.
Not according to the data you’ve provided, especially if you take an ounce of history into consideration.
He’s about even with most presidents who didn’t face major wars, slightly less popular than presidents who were in office during major wars, and low compared to…JFK.
The most popular president of all time.
Shhhhhhocker.
And again, these are polls in a time of unprecedented media bias and corporate influence, so even though they argue against your point and make out that the sky is not actually falling, they are largely irrelevant.
I’m not sure that with you missing it the first time, repeating the relevant data you missed last time will help, but let’s roll the cube-digits:
"He’s about even with most presidents who didn’t face major wars, slightly less popular than presidents who were in office during major wars, and low compared to…JFK.
The most popular president of all time.
Shhhhhhocker.
And again, these are polls in a time of unprecedented media bias and corporate influence, so even though they argue against your point and make out that the sky is not actually falling, they are largely irrelevant."
These polls, with a candidate in a two-party system being a few points lower than the other presidents but within the same range as Obama and Clinton, incredibly popular presidents despite their “numbers” who were elected to a second term, are statistically, contextually and historically irrelevant to “inevitability”.
Biden could lose(that is how voting works), but implying that it’s a lock for Trump because Biden is only as popular as Obama is ludicrous.
Mind the historical context and the statistical irrelevance of your datasets.
Show me data that tells otherwise then as I have done. Biden peaked at 55%, Trump didn’t even exceed 50%, and both have been about the same approval/disapproval long term. Past presidents have tanked harder but none have consistently had this low approval and high disapproval ratings.
Here are three quick ones. Regardless of your feelings, people aren’t happy with Biden and his approval rating is horrible. Even an “idiot” like me can use google for a quick search.
And that’s the sentiment of millions of Americans.
And regardless of how polls try to adjust to compensate and show results among the population, the fact of the matter is that they can only poll a subset demographic of “poll respondents”, which means “people eager to share their political views to anyone who will listen”.
And these days, your average trump voter is orders of magnitude more likely to want to be a loudmouth to anyone who’ll listen…compared to millions of Biden voters who aren’t even Biden supporters.
Of all these people wailing and gnashing teeth over these polls, I wonder how many of them have paid close attention to polls and polling over the last decade. Because most of them, it seems like they only discovered this shit over the past 4 years if that. Some sound like they only learned what a poll was this morning.
Articles with quotes saying that Trump definitively can’t win, and polls that barely match Trump with Biden neck and neck are not the sources of inevitable proof you think they are. Idiot fatalist crybabies.
No he isn’t, where are you idiots getting this stuff
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_States_presidential_election has a huge list of polls.
Right, that correspond exactly with what I’ve been saying,Trump is barely pulling even at best. You goofy goofs
This might be the first time in history that name calling in an argument descalated things.
I will accept this macaroni-glue plaque and mount it in my refridge.
You can hang it outside the fridge they’re dry noodles they don’t need to be refrigerated
Everyone’s gonna see it, then.
I have to say, this comment and the one posted above it literally made me snort laugh.
High five
That’s kinda the point of “plaques” and besides it’s tortiglioni and a certificate you philistiney philistine.
What can I say, I’m humble.
Trump is clearly currently ahead by a narrow margin, and Biden has not been clearly ahead since August. So when the person above said “He is polling worse than Trump” in the present tense, they were right.
Here’s Biden stacked up against presidents of the last half century for approval/disapproval. Him and Trump are historically unpopular candidates.
Ok but that’s his approval rating as being the current president. That doesn’t automatically translate to him losing. For example if I was asked that question I would say I don’t approve of him but given the choice between him and trump I’m picking him. You are using the answer for one question to assume the answer for another.
Here’s Biden vs Trump as well as other potential candidates in swing states to supplement that. He’s losing by up to 8 points in 5/6 swing states as of this Nov 5th poll, that’s also trending in the wrong direction.
And correct this isn’t something where you can say “the poll says this so therefore it’s determined to happen” because we can’t know the future. That’s why we have to take all these factors and see how similar situations turned out before and all that, never assuming absolute certainty.
Not according to the data you’ve provided, especially if you take an ounce of history into consideration.
He’s about even with most presidents who didn’t face major wars, slightly less popular than presidents who were in office during major wars, and low compared to…JFK.
The most popular president of all time.
Shhhhhhocker.
And again, these are polls in a time of unprecedented media bias and corporate influence, so even though they argue against your point and make out that the sky is not actually falling, they are largely irrelevant.
I’m not sure that with you missing it the first time, repeating the relevant data you missed last time will help, but let’s roll the cube-digits:
"He’s about even with most presidents who didn’t face major wars, slightly less popular than presidents who were in office during major wars, and low compared to…JFK.
The most popular president of all time.
Shhhhhhocker.
And again, these are polls in a time of unprecedented media bias and corporate influence, so even though they argue against your point and make out that the sky is not actually falling, they are largely irrelevant."
These polls, with a candidate in a two-party system being a few points lower than the other presidents but within the same range as Obama and Clinton, incredibly popular presidents despite their “numbers” who were elected to a second term, are statistically, contextually and historically irrelevant to “inevitability”.
Biden could lose(that is how voting works), but implying that it’s a lock for Trump because Biden is only as popular as Obama is ludicrous.
Mind the historical context and the statistical irrelevance of your datasets.
You edited your comment but somehow ended up replying to your own comment. Thought you should know.
Show me data that tells otherwise then as I have done. Biden peaked at 55%, Trump didn’t even exceed 50%, and both have been about the same approval/disapproval long term. Past presidents have tanked harder but none have consistently had this low approval and high disapproval ratings.
Here are three quick ones. Regardless of your feelings, people aren’t happy with Biden and his approval rating is horrible. Even an “idiot” like me can use google for a quick search.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html#!
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/donald-trump-surges-ahead-of-joe-biden-among-independents/ar-AA1l2yA4
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/25/biden-polls-worse-trump-00128536
Approval rating has nothing to do with polling. I can’t stand Biden; but I’d support him over traitor to America.
I rather like Biden. Compared to every president for the last 40 years, I think he’s going it less for the ego and more to serve the country.
But he’s too damn old.
Either way, the choice between “too damn old” and “too damn old self-serving, grifting traitor to the country” is pretty easy.
And that’s the sentiment of millions of Americans.
And regardless of how polls try to adjust to compensate and show results among the population, the fact of the matter is that they can only poll a subset demographic of “poll respondents”, which means “people eager to share their political views to anyone who will listen”.
And these days, your average trump voter is orders of magnitude more likely to want to be a loudmouth to anyone who’ll listen…compared to millions of Biden voters who aren’t even Biden supporters.
Of all these people wailing and gnashing teeth over these polls, I wonder how many of them have paid close attention to polls and polling over the last decade. Because most of them, it seems like they only discovered this shit over the past 4 years if that. Some sound like they only learned what a poll was this morning.
Very well said!!
Articles with quotes saying that Trump definitively can’t win, and polls that barely match Trump with Biden neck and neck are not the sources of inevitable proof you think they are. Idiot fatalist crybabies.