Has it corrected? He mentions in TFA that polling started to get really wrong as early voting for more popular, and wasn’t properly accounted for. I admit, I was one of the ones that lost faith in 538 because of the repeated dissonance. They knew something was off, but seemed unable to adjust their models to account for it. I still appreciate his analysis, but I’d love it if he’s addressed the issues in the modeling.
He has a substack. He left 538 and took his election model with him.
Has it corrected? He mentions in TFA that polling started to get really wrong as early voting for more popular, and wasn’t properly accounted for. I admit, I was one of the ones that lost faith in 538 because of the repeated dissonance. They knew something was off, but seemed unable to adjust their models to account for it. I still appreciate his analysis, but I’d love it if he’s addressed the issues in the modeling.