With evidence mounting on the failure to limit global warming to 1.5C, do you think global carbon emissions will be low enough by 2050 to at least avoid the most catastrophic climate change doomsday scenarios forecast by the turn of the century?
I am somewhat hopeful most developed countries will get there but I wonder if developing countries will have the ability and inclination to buy into it as well.
Well, the most dramatic scenary is that everyone is going to die. So, yes, we will avoid that.
But realistically, I think we wojt do 1,5C, but are going to have more like 2,5-3C. So horrible, but still survivable for at least half of the humans now.
Hopefully the food we eat survives with us
Prepare for more migrants. The people who dislike migrants are the ones who also deny climate change.
Nope. There is no hope.
Only time anyone will make real, substantiative movement on climate change, is when we’re in the middle of the absolute worst of it with nothing left to do but sit in and die slow, miserable deaths from heat, or quick miserable deaths from F7 tornados, Hypercanes, and biblical level flooding.
But just imagine all the profits that the shareholders would have made in the mean time, Thats really the most important part! /s
The fix was in on our climate by the 90’s, the Co2 levels are above 450 ppm. This doesn’t have an equivalent in many millions of years. The effects of heat building is cumulative, the earth still has plenty more room to store heat energy, and we’ve already put more than enough Co2 in the atmosphere to warm well past 2C. We’ve got years left, not decades. Wait till food distribution systems break down, that’s when it’ll hit everyone that this is already a done deal. Things will begin to break down rapidly in the next few years.
On fire or making nice with fish
I think we are heading headlong into worst case scenario territory.
And I think we’re going to see a lot of terrible effects by 2050 if not earlier.
I feel that places like the Marshall Islands will be uninhabitable by 2050.
I feel we’ll see wars break out in developed nations over water rights by 2100.
The world is on fire and those with the power to enact change are unable or unwilling to do so.
And with the rise of the far right all over the world it’s only going to get worse.
The world will be unrecognizable in 2100 to the people alive today provided we live that long.
I still hold onto some hope that we may be able to pull off a turn around and actually save humanity. But the longer everything goes on the more that hope feels like a delusional fantasy.
Hug your loved ones, try to push for a better world, be kind to others, and enjoy the time we have. For tomorrow is not guaranteed, but the least you can do is allow love to enter your heart.
I do what I can to prevent the worst case scenario, but when anyone asks how I think this is going to go, I always answer “I objectively think we are all going to burn and die, but I’m not going down without a fight.” That’s all it is. I don’t think we are going to save the world, but I want to go down swinging.
I want to be able to say I’m going down swinging, but at this point I have no idea how we’re supposed to do that aside from like… Blowing up pipelines or whatever. Having a year’s world of recycling be undone by one minute of a coca cola plant operating normally doesn’t exactly feel like swinging lol.
Lest we do not make use of geoengineering, definitely not.
No, I do not think we will avoid catastrophic change. The ice sheets, the ocean heating, everything is moving faster than the predictions estimated. We have now entered into several severe feedback loops we have no way of stopping.
Every tech we might have to pull carbon out of the atmosphere is in it’s infancy, when we needed it to be online and operational ten years ago. And we’re STILL pumping greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere.
During Covid we showed that humanity can’t or won’t pull together to fight a commen threat. Our species will survive, but it will be difficult, and many, many poeple are going to die in mass. Huge swaths of this planet are going to become uninhabitable.
And I’m sorry. I did everything I reasonably could. Ate less meat, grow/grew my own food, wrote to legislators, tried to spread awareness, and what good did it do? Did any of it do? Not a goddamned thing.
I am going to keep doing everything I can, but I think it’s over. We just don’t know it yet.
(I have sources for The Deadly Feedback Loops if anyone is interested.)
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I don’t think we’ll be dead, but I do think the world is gonna look pretty different. Like I don’t think humanity is gonna go extinct within my lifetime, but shit’s gonna get bad.
Although I suppose there’s decent odds that I as an individual will be dead by 2050 lol.
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Negative, I am a meat popsicle.
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Humanity wont go extinct, but it will definitely see a dieoff that will make the last 100 years of war and plague look small in comparison.
As long as conservatives have any say in the matter, we can expect the most destructive, deadly outcome possible.
We should expect no reasonable progress when conservatives (including neo-liberals) are able to intervene.
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Every article about weather should say “this event is made more likely due to climate change” and “this event will cost the taxpayer $X to repair” and “so far we have spent $Y total on climate related disaster relief”
It is possible but we not gonna change peaceful
World wide? No.
I think you’ll see pockets of good choices and efforts being made, perhaps down to cities, that may or may not mitigate some of the damage, or allow for a more resilient response to ongoing events.
Catastrophic level collapses that take decades will be survivable, but not at the quality of life that most are accustomed to, leading to those on the bottom dying and suffering in greater numbers. Life expectancy will continue to drop. The world will be changed, it’s just a matter of how much civil unrest this engenders as resources become scarce and global markets less reliable or available.
I’m not sure how much ecofascism we’ll actually see, though, as the people who lean/are fascist are the ones least likely to believe climate change exists, and given how conspiracy style thinking has flourished with Covid, I really can’t be sure that they’ll ever “snap out of it” and start clamoring for the change that’ll actually do anything. I think it’s more likely to see increasingly angry people who demand more for their homes and less for others, which I guess could be ecofascism? But without actually believing climate is changing; it just happens to be dumping a ton more rain for whatever reason.
Well said.
this why i’m skeptical of reports that people will stop voting republican in the united states. primarily because it’s been said before but also because climate change makes like harder and history has proven that whenever life gets tough; people become more xenophobic/racist/etc.
I think we’ve fucked it. Without some drastic measures being taken we are on track for a minimum of a 2-2.5C rise and that is itself bad but will likely see certain feedback loops (defrosting permafrost, melting deep sea methane deposits, etc) ramp up hard to the point climate change will spiral out of control.
The remnants of human civilisation will be any billionaires with a sufficiently advanced escape plan in place, looking back on a boiling world in their rear view mirrors as they head off to eke out a pitiful existence on a barren rock somewhere out there.
Yeah, I doubt industrial society is going to survive for another 100 years. I’d be surprised if things don’t go to shit in the next 20, and that’s not even accounting for some sort of “black swan” event triggered by a feedback loop or something like that, that suddenly kicks off a speedrun to turn Earth into Venus.
We’re fucked, and we’d be fucked even if humanity went carbon negative starting right now. While the human race will likely be fine, this current lifestyle and economic system we’ve got in most of the developed world will go tits up and billions will end up dying, if not from the direct effects of climate change then eg. social instability, war, disease, famine. While we could still make the future slightly less bad for ourselves, it’s simply not profitable and there’s so much inertia in global capitalism that things won’t change without fantastic amounts of violence and social upheaval, and I doubt the next change will be for the better considering how popular far right and conservative parties are in many places around the world right now. They’re gleefully making things worse and then blaming leftists / black people / atheists / science / The Gays / etc
The guards those billionaires hire will be in good shape, especially after they kill the billionaires.
We can always dream, right? But that is about as likely as politicians taking a few million from their main source of income, that being billionaires, and then deciding not to create a new law that would benefit them
Lol, no. Considering the three largest sources of emissions as far as countries are concerned are about 50% of the global total, refuse to take action, nothing is going to change.
Unfortunately not. The idiots now doing the most damage are justifying it with just pointing fingers at China or everyone else. They’re the same narcissists who will always find someone else to blame for everything, in every aspect of their life
In 20 years time, those same people will still be blaming everyone else, whilst spewing anti-science nonsense about how clean solar apparently isn’t or that EVs is far more dirty than their Dodge RAM’s they use to flirt with their mates.
They’re also the same clowns that exaggerate everything to justify their arguments (and they think everyone needs to tow 5 tons, travel 1500km on a regular basis and that EVs are regularly catching on fire)
