Honestly, I hate the situation, but I haven’t heard any compelling arguments for alternatives.
By compelling, I don’t mean appealing. I’d love for any number of other candidates to just swap in. But because the U.S. got “Weekend at Bernie’d”, and primaries were held (with no realistic opposition candidates), or cancelled in the case of Florida and Delaware, and the dates for holding a primary have passed in every state, I just… don’t see how another candidate can be swapped in.*
And I know that John Stewart specifically called out other nations who were able to call entire elections within a few months, but the U.S. electoral system just doesn’t ‘do’ that. The focus on states rights means that every state has its own laws that are fairly rigid and cannot be overridden by the federal government. And even if the states could be overridden - well, I guess I don’t know if it’s possible for the federal government to do that.
I don’t believe I’ve ever heard of that suggestion as being even a remote possibility. I’m left with the belief that it is not legally permissible.
In fact - the Heritage Foundation said they would mount legal challenges to prevent this from occurring - but only in certain states. It’s very likely those challenges could not be resolved before the election, which would lead to at least two Democratic Party candidates, and certain defeat for both of them. The only way that Biden could drop out is if the states that have laws prohibiting candidate changes repeal or modify them, and that itself might be the subject of lawsuits.
*The only way I see for Biden to drop out and not ensure certain defeat is to die. That’s the only path I can think of that’s workable.
If I truly believe that Trump will end democracy and I must do everything I can to prevent his election - even if it compromises my better judgment and morals, and I know that Biden will not use the powers he was just granted to ensure that Trump is brought to justice before he can assume dictatorial powers, then… well, what’s the option but to be a shill? That’s not a rhetorical question. I legitimately feel trapped and hopeless by this shitty system, and I cannot see a way out.
I feel like I’m damned if I do, and damned if I don’t.
The only state which was a risk was Ohio, which already amended its rule for this year to allow the selection after the dem convention. There is no legal problem here, the dems simply need to choose a new candidate at their convention.
Ohio has a law that says the candidates must be declared by August 9th, but the DNC isn’t until after that. (But Ohio cleared the way for that, as you noted.)
Nevada, however, requires that the political parties submit their candidates when the state convention is held by a given party, and does not seem to have an actual cut-off date.
Each major political party shall, at the state convention of the major political party held in that year, select from the qualified electors who are legally registered members of the major political party: (a) A nominee to the position of presidential elector; and (b) An alternate to the nominee for presidential elector.
I’m actually somewhat confused on this one - the Democratic Nevada convention was May 18th, but the article I posted above says their cut-off was June 28th. Both dates have passed, mind you. But I wonder where the June 28th date came from.
The deadline for Georgia was July 9th - yesterday.
My information for both Nevada and Georgia came from Ballotpedia. The page also notes that many states have their filing deadlines before the DNC, but it’s my understanding that the Democratic Party plans to deal with this by nominating him via conference call in advance of these deadlines - so I think the clock is about a month shorter than people may consider, when looking at the date of the DNC.
I don’t know why the first article I posted mentions Wisconsin. I think you’re right - if Biden withdraws and releases his delegates before the nomination deadlines/conference call to make it official, many states (such as Wisconsin) won’t be an issue. I’m unclear if democrats can submit an alternative candidate in Georgia, and I think they can only offer up the alternative candidate they would have specified during their convention for Nevada.
Nevada is fairly reliably democrat-leaning, and Georgia has been changing a lot lately, with expectations to swing democrat again.
Even if democrats did lose Georgia, the state would still be a battleground, which saps resources from the republican presidential effort. (Side note: If that played out and democrats couldn’t field a candidate. I would expect third party or write-in candidates to get an outsized proportion of the vote. That could be a great opportunity for third parties to perhaps get legal recognition and benefits that comes with that.)
It does seem like slightly less of an issue now that I’ve dug a bit deeper into it. However who knows how things will go in states without defined laws - that could be a boondoggle if injunctions get filed.
But there are legal issues already, and those will continue to grow as time goes on.
If Biden, god forbid, had a stroke tonight and was lying in a coma, is there no facility to change the candidate to someone else. Or would you be locked in to voting for a candidate in a vegative state?
Each major political party shall, at the state convention of the major political party held in that year, select from the qualified electors who are legally registered members of the major political party: (a) A nominee to the position of presidential elector; and (b) An alternate to the nominee for presidential elector.
I’m actually somewhat confused on this one - the Democratic Nevada convention was May 18th, but the article I posted above says their cut-off was June 28th. Both dates have passed, mind you. But I wonder where the June 28th date came from.
These are rules for selecting the electors, not the candidates. They’re the “elector” part of the “electoral college”.
I think you’re right on that front, which makes it doubly frustrating – because then you got multiple websites parroting bad information. And in turn, I may have parroted bad information.
I spent a few hours trying to find the relevant statutes to understand what was “right”, and not one made sense to me. It seems like they have different rules for major parties vs independent candidates, but fuck if I could figure out the rules for major parties.
It does seem weird that these things are so opaque, right? If you get to the right place you can find the Democrats’ rules, but the voting clause isn’t 100% unambiguous. It says you have to “in good conscience” represent the will of the voters that sent you. And on top of that there are a bunch of state laws about the delegates, but it’s unclear which ones are even legal as the Supreme Court said the parties are private entities and the states can’t tell them how to run their business.
Hmm…I wasn’t aware of the stipulations surrounding Nevada, that’s actually a bit worrisome. Thanks for pointing this out, will need to read up on it more. I honestly think GA is a lost cause this year for the Dems but we shall see.
Keen for the possibility you laid out for 3rd parties to get a foothold, hoping to see that exact scenario unfold! There are many who feel reforming the Dems is the only way towards the Left, but the party seems like such a lost cause. If only a populist 3rd party candidate could get just a small foothold, I could see voters backing them in monumental droves within just 1 election cycle. Ah, the dream.
Well, someone pointed out that the Nevada statute quoted was for their electoral college candidates, not the president. (I had noted the word elector, but figured it was goofy legal terminology.)
I couldn’t then figure out what the actual Nevada statute for presidential nominees are (it seems they’re different depending on whether the nominee is part of a major political party).
Nevada may still pose an issue but I can’t argue they are with as much confidence. I just can’t figure out the actual laws around it with my own eyes and brain.
I get Jon Stewart’s position and agree with nearly all of his criticisms, but I think the biggest thing he’s not acknowledging in his “why can France and the UK do this but we can’t?” argument is that this would absolutely not be confined to just the Democratic Party. Literally every step of the process would be decried as election fraud, cheating, “the steal of the century” etc. by republicans. If they got pissed enough to attempt an insurrection in 2020 when there was absolutely no credible evidence of fraud, just think where things will go if there’s this whole slew of unprecedented last-minute decisions that are nearly impossible to reconcile with every individual states’ laws. I’m not saying we have to bow to repubs demands, but the more excuses they have to claim anything isn’t above board, the greater the risk that the “stolen election” narrative gains traction beyond the far right.
We’ve spent the last 4 years witnessing how slowly our legal system works on huge matters like this. By the time the dust settles on all of the legal challenges, the resulting chaos will have already rendered the decisions nearly irrelevant.
They have zero say in Democratic party policies and decisions. You guys are so conditioned to think Republicans are unstoppable political juggernauts you proactively give them power to define your actions. It doesn’t matter if they claim it’s a fraud, it’s not their party and the Democratic voters most distrustful of the Democratic party don’t like Biden in the first place.
Some states have laws about electors voting for the candidate they were elected to represent, but they can be released from that requirement by the candidate. Some have voting round limits, which can just be bypassed with perfunctory votes without a majority. And if there are some laws that can’t be bypassed, they can just officially vote for Joe Biden while expressing their actual preference publicly. The party can very easily work around the state laws to achieve an equivalent result.
There is no causal link between voting fraud and the insurrection. They lost and don’t know how to lose anymore. They think they are superior to everybody else and hate it when they have to face reality.
The gaslighting is really pervasive, and most troubling. This is not the way to combat the fascists with their “alternative facts.”
Biden built his career on being a Republican basically - he was known as the Senator of “bipartisan compromise” who would always rush to give republicans whatever they wanted. Putting heads in the sand and pretending that we have to roll with Republican-lite to defeat a fascist uprising just seems incredibly foolish to me. Or pretending that Biden is even sound of mind anymore, for that matter. People don’t seem willing to have an honest conversation about anything anymore. Very unhealthy democracy right now.
I can’t see their tag without taking the time to pull up their profile. Not sure if it’s different on Lemmy, but I’m on mbin. It would be a nice feature to be able to see which instance a commenter is coming from without pulling up their profile.
Basic mobile Lemmy with the lemm.ee prefix lets me see instance next to username (no instance means they are on the same instance as me). And man, with how much gaslighting and server hopping the Tankies do here, I dont think I would have survived on here as long as I have without it. I already get suckered into to many arguements that decrease my mental health, having a huge red flag that a user may be arguing with me in bad faith helps nudge me into just blocking and not engaging. Lemmy is a double edged sword for me, I get far more tools for curation than reddit ever gave, but because of some of the more extreme “factions” that hang out here, I actually have to use them far more often
Oh yeah, that’s definitely better than how it’s done on kbn and mbin. Hopefully we’ll get that feature someday. I do really prefer the UI here overall.
I have a feeling the DNC shills we’ve been seeing so much of are actually part of a DNC campaign. Creating a Lemmy account is free and they could easily contract a company to astroturf as has been done in the past.
Biden’s chances of winning are something like 95%. The most accurate and seasoned model for predicting the election has him winning (it’s a boolean) and it was only wrong once, which was when Bush got a controversial ruling in his favor by the Supreme Court, which knocks its accuracy down to ~95% instead of 100%.
Also consider: Trump already lost to Biden, Trump’s popularity has contracted since then, 538 puts Biden 2% above where he was before the debate, all of the polls that put Biden and Trump neck-and-neck also show 18-25 YOs overwhelmingly voting for Trump, Dems win with higher voter turnout, the recent controversy with the Supreme Court is looking to drive people to the polls in record numbers, and people are currently looking up “Project 2025” more than Taylor Swift and the NFL combined (it’s probably going to be searched more than Taylor Swift at her peak, if you look at the growth curve).
So why, exactly, are you making this claim? 🤨
Edit: y’all’re doomers who hate facts.
Edit2: The 13 Keys to the White House. That’s the subject of the 1st paragraph.
Edit3: I’m not responding to anyone who isn’t putting forth an argument or demanding evidence while giving none. I’m sick of talking with dishonest creeps for the week.
I wish I was wrong in 2016 too when every chump said Hillary had a 95% chance of winning but it was clear as day she wasn’t going to be President. Barreling towards the same terrible outcome. Any other view is simply put of touch with the reality on the ground. Sure he’s going to win the popular vote again but that don’t matter in America.
You’re criticizing me for not having a source when you didn’t even put forth an argument. You just said a thing you assumed was true without anything backing it up. Also, almost everything I stated was a well-known fact.
The Keys to the White House. There are 13 criteria called “keys” if the incumbent “has 8 keys” (at least 8 criteria are true) Biden has at least 5 keys, and he appears to have 3 others. The system has correctly predicted 9/10 elections elections and the 1 that it failed at had shenanigans (look up Bush v. Gore).
So what have your eyes and ears told you that’s so convincing? Have you spoken with many formerly undecided voters? How about former Trump supporters?
Biden needs to fuck off. He’s going to lose us the Republic.
You see it. I see it. Jon Stewart sees it since forever.
The shills on Lemmy and other places like gaslighting. A lot.
Honestly, I hate the situation, but I haven’t heard any compelling arguments for alternatives.
By compelling, I don’t mean appealing. I’d love for any number of other candidates to just swap in. But because the U.S. got “Weekend at Bernie’d”, and primaries were held (with no realistic opposition candidates), or cancelled in the case of Florida and Delaware, and the dates for holding a primary have passed in every state, I just… don’t see how another candidate can be swapped in.*
And I know that John Stewart specifically called out other nations who were able to call entire elections within a few months, but the U.S. electoral system just doesn’t ‘do’ that. The focus on states rights means that every state has its own laws that are fairly rigid and cannot be overridden by the federal government. And even if the states could be overridden - well, I guess I don’t know if it’s possible for the federal government to do that.
I don’t believe I’ve ever heard of that suggestion as being even a remote possibility. I’m left with the belief that it is not legally permissible.
In fact - the Heritage Foundation said they would mount legal challenges to prevent this from occurring - but only in certain states. It’s very likely those challenges could not be resolved before the election, which would lead to at least two Democratic Party candidates, and certain defeat for both of them. The only way that Biden could drop out is if the states that have laws prohibiting candidate changes repeal or modify them, and that itself might be the subject of lawsuits.
*The only way I see for Biden to drop out and not ensure certain defeat is to die. That’s the only path I can think of that’s workable.
If I truly believe that Trump will end democracy and I must do everything I can to prevent his election - even if it compromises my better judgment and morals, and I know that Biden will not use the powers he was just granted to ensure that Trump is brought to justice before he can assume dictatorial powers, then… well, what’s the option but to be a shill? That’s not a rhetorical question. I legitimately feel trapped and hopeless by this shitty system, and I cannot see a way out.
I feel like I’m damned if I do, and damned if I don’t.
The only state which was a risk was Ohio, which already amended its rule for this year to allow the selection after the dem convention. There is no legal problem here, the dems simply need to choose a new candidate at their convention.
That’s the problem with the patchwork of laws.
Ohio has a law that says the candidates must be declared by August 9th, but the DNC isn’t until after that. (But Ohio cleared the way for that, as you noted.)
Nevada, however, requires that the political parties submit their candidates when the state convention is held by a given party, and does not seem to have an actual cut-off date.
I’m actually somewhat confused on this one - the Democratic Nevada convention was May 18th, but the article I posted above says their cut-off was June 28th. Both dates have passed, mind you. But I wonder where the June 28th date came from.
The deadline for Georgia was July 9th - yesterday.
My information for both Nevada and Georgia came from Ballotpedia. The page also notes that many states have their filing deadlines before the DNC, but it’s my understanding that the Democratic Party plans to deal with this by nominating him via conference call in advance of these deadlines - so I think the clock is about a month shorter than people may consider, when looking at the date of the DNC.
I don’t know why the first article I posted mentions Wisconsin. I think you’re right - if Biden withdraws and releases his delegates before the nomination deadlines/conference call to make it official, many states (such as Wisconsin) won’t be an issue. I’m unclear if democrats can submit an alternative candidate in Georgia, and I think they can only offer up the alternative candidate they would have specified during their convention for Nevada.
Nevada is fairly reliably democrat-leaning, and Georgia has been changing a lot lately, with expectations to swing democrat again. Even if democrats did lose Georgia, the state would still be a battleground, which saps resources from the republican presidential effort. (Side note: If that played out and democrats couldn’t field a candidate. I would expect third party or write-in candidates to get an outsized proportion of the vote. That could be a great opportunity for third parties to perhaps get legal recognition and benefits that comes with that.)
It does seem like slightly less of an issue now that I’ve dug a bit deeper into it. However who knows how things will go in states without defined laws - that could be a boondoggle if injunctions get filed.
But there are legal issues already, and those will continue to grow as time goes on.
I don’t know, man.
If Biden, god forbid, had a stroke tonight and was lying in a coma, is there no facility to change the candidate to someone else. Or would you be locked in to voting for a candidate in a vegative state?
These are rules for selecting the electors, not the candidates. They’re the “elector” part of the “electoral college”.
I think you’re right on that front, which makes it doubly frustrating – because then you got multiple websites parroting bad information. And in turn, I may have parroted bad information.
I spent a few hours trying to find the relevant statutes to understand what was “right”, and not one made sense to me. It seems like they have different rules for major parties vs independent candidates, but fuck if I could figure out the rules for major parties.
It does seem weird that these things are so opaque, right? If you get to the right place you can find the Democrats’ rules, but the voting clause isn’t 100% unambiguous. It says you have to “in good conscience” represent the will of the voters that sent you. And on top of that there are a bunch of state laws about the delegates, but it’s unclear which ones are even legal as the Supreme Court said the parties are private entities and the states can’t tell them how to run their business.
Hmm…I wasn’t aware of the stipulations surrounding Nevada, that’s actually a bit worrisome. Thanks for pointing this out, will need to read up on it more. I honestly think GA is a lost cause this year for the Dems but we shall see.
Keen for the possibility you laid out for 3rd parties to get a foothold, hoping to see that exact scenario unfold! There are many who feel reforming the Dems is the only way towards the Left, but the party seems like such a lost cause. If only a populist 3rd party candidate could get just a small foothold, I could see voters backing them in monumental droves within just 1 election cycle. Ah, the dream.
Well, someone pointed out that the Nevada statute quoted was for their electoral college candidates, not the president. (I had noted the word elector, but figured it was goofy legal terminology.)
I couldn’t then figure out what the actual Nevada statute for presidential nominees are (it seems they’re different depending on whether the nominee is part of a major political party).
Nevada may still pose an issue but I can’t argue they are with as much confidence. I just can’t figure out the actual laws around it with my own eyes and brain.
Well said.
I get Jon Stewart’s position and agree with nearly all of his criticisms, but I think the biggest thing he’s not acknowledging in his “why can France and the UK do this but we can’t?” argument is that this would absolutely not be confined to just the Democratic Party. Literally every step of the process would be decried as election fraud, cheating, “the steal of the century” etc. by republicans. If they got pissed enough to attempt an insurrection in 2020 when there was absolutely no credible evidence of fraud, just think where things will go if there’s this whole slew of unprecedented last-minute decisions that are nearly impossible to reconcile with every individual states’ laws. I’m not saying we have to bow to repubs demands, but the more excuses they have to claim anything isn’t above board, the greater the risk that the “stolen election” narrative gains traction beyond the far right.
We’ve spent the last 4 years witnessing how slowly our legal system works on huge matters like this. By the time the dust settles on all of the legal challenges, the resulting chaos will have already rendered the decisions nearly irrelevant.
They have zero say in Democratic party policies and decisions. You guys are so conditioned to think Republicans are unstoppable political juggernauts you proactively give them power to define your actions. It doesn’t matter if they claim it’s a fraud, it’s not their party and the Democratic voters most distrustful of the Democratic party don’t like Biden in the first place.
Some states have laws about electors voting for the candidate they were elected to represent, but they can be released from that requirement by the candidate. Some have voting round limits, which can just be bypassed with perfunctory votes without a majority. And if there are some laws that can’t be bypassed, they can just officially vote for Joe Biden while expressing their actual preference publicly. The party can very easily work around the state laws to achieve an equivalent result.
There is no causal link between voting fraud and the insurrection. They lost and don’t know how to lose anymore. They think they are superior to everybody else and hate it when they have to face reality.
The gaslighting is really pervasive, and most troubling. This is not the way to combat the fascists with their “alternative facts.”
Biden built his career on being a Republican basically - he was known as the Senator of “bipartisan compromise” who would always rush to give republicans whatever they wanted. Putting heads in the sand and pretending that we have to roll with Republican-lite to defeat a fascist uprising just seems incredibly foolish to me. Or pretending that Biden is even sound of mind anymore, for that matter. People don’t seem willing to have an honest conversation about anything anymore. Very unhealthy democracy right now.
Hypernormalization
Interesting
IMHO, calling people shills is just going to make people defensive and not listen to reasonable arguments.
For real! Here on Lemmy we prefer to call people tankies and Russian bots.
I mean, there is that Lemmy dev with a git repo of self published communist manifestos, but who doesn’t have like 8 of those laying around.
You are right, Jesus
To be fair, there is an unusually vocal tankie minority here.
Look at their tag, it’s .ml, they’re a Tankie trying to dilute the term
I can’t see their tag without taking the time to pull up their profile. Not sure if it’s different on Lemmy, but I’m on mbin. It would be a nice feature to be able to see which instance a commenter is coming from without pulling up their profile.
Basic mobile Lemmy with the lemm.ee prefix lets me see instance next to username (no instance means they are on the same instance as me). And man, with how much gaslighting and server hopping the Tankies do here, I dont think I would have survived on here as long as I have without it. I already get suckered into to many arguements that decrease my mental health, having a huge red flag that a user may be arguing with me in bad faith helps nudge me into just blocking and not engaging. Lemmy is a double edged sword for me, I get far more tools for curation than reddit ever gave, but because of some of the more extreme “factions” that hang out here, I actually have to use them far more often
Oh yeah, that’s definitely better than how it’s done on kbn and mbin. Hopefully we’ll get that feature someday. I do really prefer the UI here overall.
That’s the spirit!
Lmao, you .ml hexbears really cant think of more than one talking point
Yeah, so many times people claim only shills disagree and I’m standing here like, I’m a shill, damn didn’t know…
Calling people tankies does the same thing but you aren’t criticizing those idiots.
Yes yes the people on lemmy who disagree with you are the real powers behind the decision on whether he drops out or not
I have a feeling the DNC shills we’ve been seeing so much of are actually part of a DNC campaign. Creating a Lemmy account is free and they could easily contract a company to astroturf as has been done in the past.
When politicians and their families taste power they can’t let it go.
Biden’s chances of winning are something like 95%. The most accurate and seasoned model for predicting the election has him winning (it’s a boolean) and it was only wrong once, which was when Bush got a controversial ruling in his favor by the Supreme Court, which knocks its accuracy down to ~95% instead of 100%.
Also consider: Trump already lost to Biden, Trump’s popularity has contracted since then, 538 puts Biden 2% above where he was before the debate, all of the polls that put Biden and Trump neck-and-neck also show 18-25 YOs overwhelmingly voting for Trump, Dems win with higher voter turnout, the recent controversy with the Supreme Court is looking to drive people to the polls in record numbers, and people are currently looking up “Project 2025” more than Taylor Swift and the NFL combined (it’s probably going to be searched more than Taylor Swift at her peak, if you look at the growth curve).
So why, exactly, are you making this claim? 🤨
Edit: y’all’re doomers who hate facts.
Edit2: The 13 Keys to the White House. That’s the subject of the 1st paragraph.
Edit3: I’m not responding to anyone who isn’t putting forth an argument or demanding evidence while giving none. I’m sick of talking with dishonest creeps for the week.
Fuck polls. Only voting matters. Don’t get complacent.
Correct.
The 13 keys have no credibility ; they are like calling a ball or a strike after the replay with the video box
Reasoning: I want you to be wrong, so I’ve decided it to be so.
I wish I was wrong in 2016 too when every chump said Hillary had a 95% chance of winning but it was clear as day she wasn’t going to be President. Barreling towards the same terrible outcome. Any other view is simply put of touch with the reality on the ground. Sure he’s going to win the popular vote again but that don’t matter in America.
I love how this reply entirely fails to address the point.
Also? Biden already won against Trump, and that was before Jan6.
You’re right your response addresses 2024. Never said he couldn’t/wouldn’t be president in 2020.
Because I have eyes, ears, and more than like 3 functioning neurons.
Nice source, btw.
You’re criticizing me for not having a source when you didn’t even put forth an argument. You just said a thing you assumed was true without anything backing it up. Also, almost everything I stated was a well-known fact.
It’s on you to produce this mysterious model, not on me to believe in bullshit over empirical observation. Kindly fuck off.
Tf is empirical observation? Are you just attaching words to your feelings in the hopes they’ll sound more valid?
The Keys to the White House. There are 13 criteria called “keys” if the incumbent “has 8 keys” (at least 8 criteria are true) Biden has at least 5 keys, and he appears to have 3 others. The system has correctly predicted 9/10 elections elections and the 1 that it failed at had shenanigans (look up Bush v. Gore).
So what have your eyes and ears told you that’s so convincing? Have you spoken with many formerly undecided voters? How about former Trump supporters?
Right? This thread has more bots than Mars