What the title says. I think there is still a long way for that to happen but i’ve been hopeful. What do you think?

  • Yote.zip@pawb.social
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    2 years ago

    It’s possible. I think the biggest obstacle is that the corporations feeding on people’s data are not going to just stand by while it happens.

    • dogebread@lemm.ee
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      2 years ago

      Another big obstacle is the general UX of these platforms. Major companies have teams of user experience analysis and researchers that, while not always “winning” as compared to product or business driven decisions, absolutely have a (generally positive) impact on the product. Onboarding, retention, etc.

      The fediverse has all the standard frictions of most OSS, like talking about itself, it’s technology, etc when the fact is 99% of users dgaf.

      I might go so far as to argue the perceived complexity is a bigger barrier than the risk of sabotage from other businesses. I am optimistic the growing list of third party apps will help solve some of these issues, as long as they take things like the sign up process and server selection into their scope.

      • kurosawaa@programming.dev
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        2 years ago

        I don’t think UX will be that big of a problem, in the past the unofficial reddit apps were all better than the official one. Major companies design by committee and the UX is meant too maximize profit and engagement statistics for advertising, rather than be “good”. A lot of open source UIs are better than their paid counterparts. I think PopOS is far nicer than windows 11.

        • rambaroo@lemmy.world
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          2 years ago

          Nah, most open source UIs are really pretty bad. Most devs are horrendous designers.

          Your comment about profitability is true when it comes to social media companies specifically but definitely not true for the industry as a whole. UX is a huge selling point for enterprise software and the goal there isn’t to drive clicks or views, because that’s not how those companies make money.

          UX won’t be a problem as long as the maintainers are open to feedback and not stubborn about their current approach. And even if they are, an alternate front end could be introduced separate from the default one.

      • b3nsn0w@pricefield.org
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        2 years ago

        yeah, lemmy’s current web app is very much in the “made for nerds by nerds” category as far as i see. lots of cool tools to express yourself and not many useless limitations, but on the other hand it’s kinda confusing if you’re not that techy. it’s absolutely learnable but it would do very poorly on a hallway usability test.

        and it’s understandable why that is so, lemmy itself is being developed by two people who have their hands full putting out a thousand other fires, as well as sorting through the community’s contributions. but there’s still a lot that will have to improve in the future – although I’m completely sure that when it does, it will be way better than what a corporate alternative would be like. those tend to do well with attracting new users but they also tend to be out of touch and suffer from stupid one-off decisions by middle managers trying to get promoted.

      • DoctorTYVM@lemmy.world
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        2 years ago

        That and the servers are under such stress that it makes for a stuttery beginning for any new usrrs. Even just trying to upvote you and comment was a process. First this page wouldn’t load properly, then then the upvote didn’t show, then the screen jumped around when I tried to reply.

        This site and any other will only replace Reddit etc if it’s got people. It only gets people if new users can use the platform. We’re not quite there yet. The people here now are willing to put up with growing pains but if it doesn’t improve soon people will move on

        • rockhandle@lemm.ee
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          2 years ago

          The problem is that everyone has consolidated on one gargantuan server. The whole point of the fediverse is to spread out so no one server is carrying the entire load. I’m currently using lemm.ee and have experienced none of the issues being discussed here.

          But yes, I agree that it could be a potential turn off for newcomers.

          • danielton@lemmy.world
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            2 years ago

            At the time of this writing, I have accounts on two servers. One on the big server, and one on a tiny server.

            Obviously, the gargantuan server’s biggest issue is performance. That will probably improve with time, but with its size comes some noticeable benefits, which I will touch on shortly.

            The tiny server, which I actually joined first, is blazing fast, but I’ve run into constant issues trying to find communities and posts that the bigger server can find no problem. Initiating a federation request is not intuitive at all, and your average user is going to wonder why the hell so much stuff isn’t showing up when they click All on a smaller server.

            I tried manually copying my subscription list from the gargantuan server to the tiny one. It was quite a chore, even though it got better in 0.18. Most of the communities returned a “not found” error. Having to retry a search several times or manually input the URL and reload the page several times until the server can find the community on the remote server is not something the average user is going to want to deal with, so they’ll end up on the huge servers that already know about the communities on the other large servers, if they don’t give up.

            Hopefully this gets better, but that’s my best guess as to why everybody ended up on the gargantuan servers.

          • DoctorTYVM@lemmy.world
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            2 years ago

            It’s a huge turn off. And federation itself adds to the problem when the servers don’t match up properly.

          • DMmeYourNudes@lemmy.world
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            2 years ago

            Spreading out would help the performance of the servers but would still expose inefficiencies in the backend systems that they use to talk to each other. The page might load, but the content will be all kinds of fucked.

        • jrbaconcheese@vlemmy.net
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          2 years ago

          Create an account off of lemmy.world and see if you have the same issues. A smaller instance can handle things easier. It have 2 but use the one that was most up-to-date and responsive.

          • DoctorTYVM@lemmy.world
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            2 years ago

            See that’s part of the problem. You shouldnt need to have to create a bunch of accounts just to use a site. People aren’t going to stick around to find time their social media. They want it to just work.

            • jrbaconcheese@vlemmy.net
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              2 years ago

              I don’t disagree that it’s a weakness. But that just is how it is for now. I’d guess that it will settle down to a few dozen “strong” instances that are all federated together, with hundreds more smaller instances available, but right now there are like 5 super-packed instances (lemmy.world, sh.itjust.works, knob.social, etc) which are getting killed with a double-whammy: all the users and all the communities are on them.

            • ski11erboi@lemmy.one
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              2 years ago

              I’ve only been on lemmy.one and I’m reading through this thread thinking what technical problems? Seriously people need to try a different instance because apparently they run much better.

            • insomniac@vlemmy.net
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              2 years ago

              We’re still very early on. It’s not going to be a digg to Reddit style thing. But Reddit will keep making bad decisions and people will trickle over here over time and with each influx, things will have improved. I’ve been here a couple weeks and it seems like every day it gets better.

              Also, the technical barriers aren’t as scary to people make it out to be. Yeah we won’t get all the boomers, which is very sad. But I’ve got some very tech illiterate friends who have started using memmy with no problems.

              And do we even want to get as big as Reddit? Reddit was great 15 years ago. Then teenagers got smart phones and the olds spread out past Facebook and it’s been on decline ever since. I’d be perfectly happy if it got to like 20% the size of Reddit. Maybe not even that big.

              • Landrin201@lemmy.ml
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                2 years ago

                I fundamentally disagree with the idea we will see a continuous trickle of users here as reddit makes more bad decisions. It will be waves, not a constant trickle. And each decision after the API changes will be incrementally smaller, driving fewer users away.

                Right now we will also have a retention problem. People came here as an alternative to reddit, a d if the site is too slow, too hard to use because it is slow, then they won’t stay. Theyll fall back into old habits and go back to reddit, because it’s easier and familiar.

                Edit: case and point: I’m using Jerboa. I just posted this comment, but when I did it took about 30 seconds, then I got a network error, and it didn’t seem to post but it had, in fact, posted. This is pretty normal on this app right now. I understand stuff like this will get ironed out, but for new users who aren’t fully committed it’s a BIG turnoff.

              • floofloof@lemmy.ca
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                2 years ago

                Yeah we won’t get all the boomers, which is very sad.

                I hope boomer is a state of mind, because otherwise you might be disappointed to learn how old some of us are.

          • DoctorTYVM@lemmy.world
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            2 years ago

            Yeah, the apps have been spotty for me, but at least the layout is cleaner.

            Not a good sign when you need an app to properly use your website though.

            • danielton@lemmy.world
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              2 years ago

              The mobile site for Lemmy is at least usable, without a huge banner telling you to download the app. That’s more than I can say for Reddit.

                • astraeus@programming.dev
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                  2 years ago

                  I imagine reddit felt little different than this at launch in 2005. New services are never going to be perfect from the start and it’s obvious there is a community of devoted devs working on this project.

      • TeamAssimilation@infosec.pub
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        2 years ago

        If only those expert researchers were more focused on a great user experience instead of dark patterns to sell more ad eyeballs. There’s definitely good expertise to crowdsource, give it time.

      • rumbleran@suppo.fi
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        2 years ago

        Decentralized nature of Lemmy is also going to be confusing for the average Joe. When they to go to web site of Lemmy and see a list of instances to choose from, with communities spread all over them they are just going to nope out.

    • Kit Sorens@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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      2 years ago

      And do what? Make a better product? The beauty of Capitalism is that consumers really are the final say on whether your product succeeds. You can make an app with as many addictive hooks as possible, but that doesn’t make those users permanent. And any sabbotage by Reddit will only dig in our heels at this point.

      • MrTulip@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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        2 years ago

        If the fediverse starts gaining traction, you can bet the mega-corps will use every dirty trick they have to co-opt it or, if that fails, undermine it.

      • glockenspiel@lemmy.world
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        2 years ago

        I hear what you’re saying, but Lemmy was created to oppose the capitalist exploitation cycle. With Lemmy, we aren’t consumers or a product. Lemmy is actually firmly rooted in anti-capitalism and arose because capitalism destroys choice.

        Capitalism isn’t necessary for innovation. It is just the private ownership of things. Spez didn’t make Reddit great, for example. Other people did. Spez is just a do-nothing owner who is now the mouth piece for bigger do-nothing owners looking to wring out maximum profit from unpaid laborers.

        I’d argue that capitalism stifles innovation, which is why everyone agrees that you need competition. A market economy. And broad anti-trust regulations, since capitalism is inherently authoritarian since it is a top-down hierarchical structure. A free-ish market is what allowed us to innovate so quickly.

        But Lemmy is outside of that since it isn’t driven by profit.

        • CHINESEBOTTROLL@sh.itjust.works
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          2 years ago

          People use “capitalism” in different ways. The person you responded to probably meant it as “free marked system”, which Lemmy absolutely fits into. Often “capitalism” is used to mean “profit seeking system”, which Lemmy doesn’t fit into.

          Both of these uses are common.

        • hitmyspot@lemmy.world
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          2 years ago

          Capitalism provides an incentive to make money. It allows you to buy things or donthings. However sometimes the thing we want to do is socialise. So people code to make that happen. People run instances to make that happen. The incentive is community instead of money.

          Capitalism still provides incentive for innovation. So does our need for interaction. I’m hoping that the decentralised nature and federisariinnmakeanthay possible for other projects. We could all start having our own foss servers in our homes that hold our photos, our social media, email and news. With no ads and no snooping. This could be the next phase of our internet connected lives.

    • Kaliax@lemmy.world
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      2 years ago

      Even a healthy competitor, niche, or mainstream would be so nice. Lemmy already hits with some solid weight imo.

  • TALD@lemmy.fmhy.ml
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    2 years ago

    I don’t think you need to have the largest following to have great value, even lemmy as it is right now feels great. I’ll actually want to dive into comment sections compared to the endless scrolling on reddit.

    As long as there’s enough people using a platform for a variety of ideas and experience in topics, I think that’s good enough for me.

    • cjsolx@lemmy.world
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      2 years ago

      Personally, I don’t even want Lemmy/kbin to become Reddit 2.0.

      Reddit from 10 years ago is the goal for me. Reddit has become far, far too bloated for its own good, and that line was crossed a long time ago IMO. Let’s just enjoy what we have. Let all the normies stay on Reddit, the people I wanna vibe with are here already.

      • DMmeYourNudes@lemmy.world
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        2 years ago

        The problem is that nitch communities won’t get populated unless a lot of people join. The league of legends sub is the largest video game sub on Reddit, and here it’s barely active at all.

      • Magiwarriorx@lemmy.world
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        2 years ago

        I want it to be Reddit 2.0 in the sense that I can find active communities for specific or niche interests. Before July 1, the smallest subs that I participated in to have similar communities here were ones that had ~400k subscribers on Reddit.

        The value of Reddit was never in the 1M+ communities, any content there was usually present elsewhere, and the discussions rapidly became dumpster fires. It was in the smaller dedicated subs for topics that might not have another human-centric discussion forum.

    • twistedtxb@sh.itjust.works
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      2 years ago

      I agree. A vast majority of the userbase don’t mind the countless ads on Reddit or Twitter, on even FB. I think people are leaving FB because it’s not cool anymore, not because the UE has gotten worse.

      I’m just glad that there now are smaller, more tailored for my preferences alternatives like Lemmy

    • reverie@lemmy.world
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      2 years ago

      Yes I think about Hacker News, which isn’t technically sophisticated nor does it have a massive userbase (a little less than 1 million registered accounts).

      It manages to have a steady stream of content and an active commenting base

  • Margot Robbie@lemmy.world
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    2 years ago

    Not everyone who left Digg went to reddit, and not everyone who left Myspace went to Facebook. “Replacing” reddit should never be the goal, it should be “be better than reddit”.

    If this is ever to go mainstream, what we should be concerned about is making good, high quality original content. If people see us having fun and being nice here, they’ll want to join in too.

  • Kissaki@feddit.de
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    2 years ago

    Yes

    It’s unpredictable though. Too many influences on that. People, interaction, systematic. Reddit has the size it could remain, or rebound. Lemmy as a project or platform could fuck up.

    Lemmy/Fediverse is a sizeable niche now and has a chance to - over time - scale up significantly.

  • bop@lemm.ee
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    2 years ago

    I think if we all just leave Reddit behind and commit to Lemmy, things will fall into place. I haven’t logged into reddit since the 30th, and things here have been just fine. I’m regularly getting responses to my comments and there’s good discussion everywhere I look on Lemmy. As far as I can see, it’s only a matter of time before it’s “mainstream”.

  • hemmes@vlemmy.net
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    2 years ago

    All this talk about “well, the UX”, “if the servers can”, “but the big companies”, bla, bla, bla. I’m here right now. There is nothing else as far as I’m concerned. Twitter and Reddit are dead to me and I absolutely love Mastodon and Lemmy. I quit Facebook many years ago and never found an alternative for that, outside of starting a shared photo group on iOS with my family.

    You better start believing in fediverse alternatives…you’re in one.

  • basskitten@lemmy.world
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    2 years ago

    No. I’ve got a bunch of friends who are just as techy and nerdy as I am, and they won’t move. “Yeah, Reddit sucks, but I’m not going to change.”

    They didn’t go to Mastodon either, just Bluesky, which infuriates me, as it’s just another walled garden.

  • ErwinLottemann@feddit.de
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    2 years ago

    When you can convince your friends to use Signal, you can convince them to use Mastodon and Lemmy… So, I vote ‘No’ ☹️

  • El_Segundo@lemmy.world
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    2 years ago

    I don’t understand why everyone is talking about this going mainstream or winning against Reddit. If that happens then in come the corporate interests to ruin it. We don’t need to take on the unlimited growth unsustainable business model we can just be happy with what we have

  • JerkyIsSuperior@lemmy.world
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    2 years ago

    It depends what you mean by “mainstream”. If by that you imply that the Fediverse will become a true public forum, and a place to exchange ideas and form opinions, then yes, I would like for it to be a counterweight to legacy media and corporate content silos. However, if the fediverse becomes yet another astroturfed propaganda outlet, then no, I do not want it to become mainstream. Fortunately, the loose Fediverse network makes it hard to take over and control, provided that the ActivityPub protocol remains untainted by actions of bad actors.

  • 🄱🄴🅲🅾🅾🅻@lemmy.world
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    2 years ago

    I believe that, just like RSS feeds did not become mainstream while Reddit did, the current state of the fediverse will not gain mainstream popularity; however, it’ll serve as a stepping stone towards a new federated internet that’ll be seamless and intuitive for non-technically-inclined individuals and those who are indifferent to the implications for privacy and digital freedom.

  • fidodo@lemm.ee
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    2 years ago

    I don’t think it will go mainstream due to the Reddit drama but I do think it will hit critical mass due to it, and hiring critical mass will give it a chance to go mainstream. The biggest issue I’ve seen people have with Lemmy and the fediverse is the onboarding process, and that is a very solvable problem.

  • DannyMac@lemmy.world
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    2 years ago

    I’m hoping it won’t. I’ve had discussions with my friends from the earlier days of the Internet. The Internet was a much nicer place when you didn’t have everyone and their grandma on it. You actually had to be tech literate to use it. This resulted in higher quality interactions and content. You still had undesirable groups and places, but they were sectioned off to their own corner. Now, social media and its algorithms give everyone a soapbox. I’d rather they stay off my fediverse lawn.