Even having had time to prepare for this, and knowing it was essentially inevitable, this feels heavy in a way that I’m not sure how to express yet.
He needs to spend every free minute between now and his last day seating judges. Fuck blue slips. Appoint until there’s not a vacancy to be found.
The inevitability of an even worse Democratic replacement.
How can it possibly be worse than Trump?!
I didn’t say worse than Trump, I said worse than Biden, you average blue vote.
I know what you said. But that’s what it comes out to.
Which would be who? Before it was too late and it’s all about his team, now it’s that the others are worse?
Yeah, the Dems better not fuck up this hard pivot!
It doesn’t have to be hard. Harris should go to the top of the ticket, and the campaign apparatus stays the same.
Have her, a former prosecutor, debate Trump and treat that shit like a cross examination.
And make Sanders the VP to make me excited.
Sanders is too old. God love him, but it would not inspire confidence. If we’re going for a prominent progressive on the ticket, we’d have to go AOC.
More likely though, Harris will pick someone who is an old white moderate male, though, unfortunately.
There’s a difference between old and senile and ordinary old. Bernie is just old
Yeah but the uncommitted voter is a moron.
When you’re in your 80s, decline can come about VERY quickly and without warning. It, unfortunately, is much more of a concern than it was in 2016.
Aren’t Trump and Sanders the same age? Though, I agree, I feel that Bernie’s ship has sailed, sadly.
Trump is 78, Sanders is 82. Realistically speaking, Trump is also at that age when decline can come very quickly, but:
- His cult doesn’t care
AND
- Considering Trump’s ‘normal’ behavior, how would you even tell
Trump is also at that age when decline can come very quickly
The decline has already come. I’ve seen some clips of Trump from 20 years ago. He was never a good person, but he used to be coherent.
I’d love someone like Hakeem Jeffries, Katie Porter, or (if God exists and is benevolent) Jasmine Crockett. Any of those choices would make me ecstatic.
I don’t know Jasmine Crockett, but Katie Porter is so fucking sharp. No idea if she would run or could win, but she would be a great fucking President.
Katie Porter just lost her senate bid after getting fucked by Schiff. So she is available…
But vulnerable as a “loser” when added to Harris, who doesn’t have a really long track record herself. Also they need someone who can pull a swing state.
Isn’t she also from California? Her and Newsom wouldn’t work for the same (legal) reason Trump couldn’t go with DeSatan.
That’s an interesting point. I wonder if it works better for Harris, having been in DC so long, does she claim that as her residence?
Oh bro. You gotta go look up Jasmine Crockett clips on youtube. She’s incredible. And hard agree on Katie Porter being a great fucking president.
That is a ticket I would be happy to vote for
It is, and always has been, in the hands of the voters. It’s the non-voters who fuck it up.
It’s voters who don’t listen or remember that fucks things up
Do you have anything other than your personal feelings to back up that claim?
There are 10s of millions of eligible voters who don’t participate but then complain about the result. If they would show up to vote then campaign managers would put an effort into polling and engaging them to win their vote. If they want to protest then they can show up and cast an empty ballot.
I nonvote is a vote of no confidence.
We can plainly see that sitting out and not voting only tells those in power and campaigning that they don’t have to spend any time or money earning your vote. A vote of no confidence would be showing up and turning in a ballot with no selection for particular races. That puts you on public record as an active voter.
Allowing them to do whatever they want with no accountability has given us the political climate we are currently in.
Biden could kill 200k Palestinians and not lose a single voter.
Allowing them to do whatever they want with no accountability has given us the political climate we are currently in.
Exactly. Not voting is how you allow them to do whatever they want with no accountability. Third parties won’t be viable without election reform (which is at the state level) which we won’t get without replacing the incumbents through the party primaries.
Biden could kill 200k Palestinians and not lose a single voter.
Bull shit. He’s lost plenty of voters already for his handling of the Israeli genocide of the Palestinians. Even though he did actually put public pressure on Netanyahu for a ceasefire and he did in fact delay weapons shipments. He needed to do better, but Trump will be worse and if the Democratic party loses Trump will win. No amount of idealism will change that reality.
Knowing the Democrats, they’ll probably run an even older ticket somehow lol.
Jimmy Carter/Bernie Sanders 2024!
Sanders is old but I still think he would have a shot on the ticket. He’s still got the same fighting spirit he had in him when he was getting arrested at civil rights protests.
He’d be 87 at the end of a term.
He tried but the establishment stopped his momentum short. I was one of his diehards in 16.
I like Whitmeyer, and I feel that a lot of former Bernie Bros have gotten behind her. I hope she gets the nomination, though I strongly doubt it will be anyone but Kamala.
That said, regardless of who it is, absolutely voting for them no matter what.
Fucking bewilders me that he ran twice and we got Clinton and Biden instead.
I suppose its probably got to do with the DNC wanting one of their own on the ballot instead of an Independent
Bernie hates the corporate establishment elites on the left a well as the right, and they knew the threat a Bernie presidency would be to them.
It’s already fucked up. Biden dropping out just handed the whole fucking thing to Trump.
Edit: Alright, alright. This was a gut punch and I really felt Biden was our best shot. That said, this could be an opportunity and I’m here for it.
Oh, stop. We’re you one of the ones also saying him not dropping out handed it to Trump? Or that the assassination attempt picture handed it to Trump?
Nothing has handed it to anyone. There are more liberal voters than conservative, including in battleground states. We just have to decide to rally around Harris and stop with the quibbling about one issue or another.
No I wasn’t. I’m pretty well on record saying I’m worried that Kamala can’t win, and if agitators are able to convince black voters that we are a bunch of racist hypocrites for not running her then no one else can win either. That’s my stance and I’ll be fucking ecstatic to be proven wrong.
Defeatism gets us nowhere. We live in unusual times - they are what we make of them. And I say we make this a Dem fucking victory so we don’t have to live (or die) under a fascist fucking regime.
I’m going to do everything I can. I’m all in on whoever the candidate is. But right now at this moment, I’m feeling really fucking defeated. But I would be so happy to be wrong.
I mean, I guess it’s your turn. Those of us who wanted Biden to step down have been feeling really fucking defeated for months, now.
The truth is, none of us know how it’s going to go in November. We each had visions of what we thought the best path to victory would be, and we each hoped that the party would follow our vision. I think that Biden’s poor debate performance, poor health, obvious cognitive decline, and the slew of poor polls he’s been getting mean that replacing him (even at this late hour) is the right way to go. I suppose we’ll have to keep our fingers crossed and hope.
I just want Trump not to win. I am really scared for my kids. I’m a middle aged white guy and I’ll be fine if Trump wins, but I have 4 daughters and a gay son and they need Trump not to win.
Hey, man, I feel you. I think that a Trump victory would mean the end of American democracy, in addition to causing the loss of liberty and life for a significant number of Americans. It’s a manichaean struggle, so, I really hope we didn’t fuck it up. That being said, I DO think that this move is the best chance we have to seize victory in November.
I am the complete opposite, this will galvanise people.
We can cheerlead Harris until the cows come home, but it’s the people who were caught by surprise by this announcement that need to be reached. Bernie Sanders would’ve been President in 2016 if internet enthusiasm meant a damn. The politically disconnected are the people I’m most concerned about.
But yes this might make the base more enthusiastic and help turnout. I hope that’s enough.
This is such an extraordinary circumstance that no one can predict what will happen. Don’t give up.
It’s not just that, it’s a chance at a fresh start to excite people about a new direction for this country.
Nah this is just typical American behavior. After exhausting all the wrong options we are finally seeing Biden do the right thing.
Today, since there’s an influx of comments essentially proclaiming “it’s Joever, Trump Wins” or “Harris won’t be able to win in November”, I’ve had to resort to checking people’s comments from a week before if they were saying Biden had a solid chance or if “everyone and anyone would be a bad choice so don’t bother”.
You were one that genuinely believed in Biden unlike some of the anti-US trolls. I’m sorry, you don’t deserve the downvotes, I know your disappointment is legitimate. (You can see the user cabron who replied to you is one example of the other type I’m talking about). Don’t give up, there is still hope yet.
I appreciate you taking the effort. And with a little time to reflect I’m not as disheartened as I was earlier. I think it’s an uphill fight, but it was with Biden, too.
I’m with you. I’ve come to terms with it. Let’s hope whoever it is wins.
No, I’ve talked to people who aren’t MAGA, but weren’t fans of Biden. If Harris can mop the floor with Trump in a debate (because he only looked strong because Joe was SO bad) she’d win over a lot of people.
I hope. I so fucking hope.
Nope.
“Biden staying is handing it to Trump!” “Biden leaving it’s handing it to Trump!”
Fuck off back to Russia, you’re just trying to persuade Democrats not to vote because Trump winning is what you want.
Hey, sincerely, fuck off. It would take you all of two seconds to see who I am if you really cared.
It would take burying your head in the sand for the past month to not realise Biden stood no chance.
I’ve been looking past Biden to what the race would look like without him, and I have very serious concerns articulated well before this announcement. That being said, let’s get behind Harris and see what we can do.
Yeah, that’s exactly how long it took to see it with your previous comment.
It was trump’s win ever since the debate. Pull your head out of the sand.
So, now we get to see how many “blue no matter who”’s actually meant it.
Remember folks, it applies to anyone who might be the candidate.
That over…. Harris/AOC or Harris Whitmer !!
You think people are lying about that? Weird.
“I Know you don’t like MY candidate, but you know… Blue No Matter WHO!!! You don’t want a fascist to win, do you?”
people are absolutely lying about it. the question is… how many.
You’ve not convinced me. I don’t know why anyone would use that argument if it completely betrayed their feelings. Plenty others you could use which make more sense
Uhhuh.
You don’t believe people can be manipulative assholes? Or that they lie?
Of course they can. But in this case I see no motivation to tell that particular lie
You don’t see the motivation to push your preferred candidate onto people? To manipulate people who disagree with that choice?
Or to manipulate an entire base?
Oh no, they manipulated the entire democratic base to vote democratic!
If the blue pick is a broken toaster oven, I’m still voting for it rather than tump
I’d vote for a battered cardboad cutout of Reagan over Trump. Hell. I’d vote for a cardboard cut out of trump over trump.
(cardboard cut outs can’t talk.)
A ficus. Like in 2000
Kamala all the way! It won’t be AOC or Whitmer though. Most likely Kelly or Newsom. AOC is the future, though.
Newsome cannot and will not be the VP. Harris is also from California, which would cause issues in the electoral college. Electors cannot cast both the Presidential and vice-presidential ballot for someone from the same state as themselves. Because both Harris and Newsome are form California, it could cause issues, and they might not get the electoral votes from California.
can you cite that?
It’s the first clause of the 12th Amendment to the United States Constitution, here’s the relevant text:
The Electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves
You can read the full text on Wikipedia or on the official website of Congress.
What this would mean in practice, is that if Gavin Newsome were chosen as Kamala Harris’ running mate, is that many (if not the overwhelming majority) of Californian Presidential Electors would be prohibited from voting for Harris and Newsome, since the electors are generally chosen from local politicians and other locally influential individuals.
Harris needs every electoral vote she can get, and risking any of California’s many votes would be a significant threat to her election.
I hope that satisfies your need for citations, and please, correct me if I’ve interpreted the law wrong here.
Edit: grammar, and added my separate other comment to the end of the above citation.
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so what debate one-liners are you putting on your bingo card?
“Lock him up!” <-- If she doesn’t fucking say this so help me god…
My bing card is “slaps cuffs on him during the debate.”
I doubt Newsome, you wouldn’t want both from California
Very good point! Kelly then? That’s my top pick.
If the ticket is something messed up like Harris/Bob Menendez, or Harris/Blagoyavich, I might have some reservations, but would quickly look past them considering the alternative.
Only problem I have with menendez is that I’m too broke to buy him off.
(I suspect the people who don’t have a problem with him… are rich enough. Funny how that works.)
I think AOC isn’t old enough to be VP. I don’t say that as a matter of opinion. I think you have to be at least 40
Edit: it’s actually 35, but AOC is 34 so I was partially correct
However I think the relevant language is:
No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.
So maybe it’s okay for VP
AOC’s birthday is this October, so I believe she would be eligible just in time lol
She’ll be old enough to be POTUS by inauguration.
So, she’s probably old enough to be VPOTUS…
Irrelevant. The Democrats would never put a progressive in a position where they could be president. They’ll probably go for a centrist like Shapiro or a corporate Dem like Newsom. I’m hoping that they’ll go with Whitmer but they’ll probably shy away from a two woman ticket.
It’s relevant to the question of if she’s old enough, which is a fair question given she’s on the cusp. Even if only theoretically.
Before I left home this morning, I pointed to the bottle of mustard on the table and told my girl that I would vote for the mustard. We were talking about the rumors of Biden dropping out.
At least the mustard is honest about its color. So are carrots, for that matter. I’d totally vote for a carrot.
Turnips too.
What kinda carrot? Chatennay or Danvers?
Yup, I’ll vote for any garden vegetable except for cucumbers and their squash and watermelon relatives. Will make an exception for pickles, they’re one of the good ones.
Don’t know much about carrot varieties other than Queen Anne’s lace is a wild carrot. Know more about taters and tomatoes.
Figure any real carrot would do. I’d totally vote for a beefsteak or better boy tomato over a carrot, however.
Have you tried a grafted cherry tomato/white potato plant? I’ve been looking at trying it out just because growing two produces with “one plant” seems really interesting to me and I’ve read a bit about how they’re closely related enough that you can graft the tomato to the top of the potato plant.
Also trying to get more people into container gardening and it seems like a good space saver.I haven’t tried it. Seems like a gimmick.
I’m not a big fan of container gardening. From the deep south, container gardening is for places where the sun won’t dry and burn the roots.
Grew up working on a tater farm. Sweet taters and Irish taters.
We’re in process of moving further north and my girl is excited to try container gardening again.
A plant takes in a certain amount of energy and turns part of that into fruit or root storage. You can’t really get anything for free.
I prefer heirloom seed or hardware start plants grown traditionally.
It’s been a long time since I’ve grown much of anything other than cacti, native ornamentals, and fungi. It’s a kind of work I swore off for a long time.
Just bought a play farm, will probably grow some tomatoes. Have apple trees, blueberries, and a small vineyard I need to learn.
I have a tiny yard in the south and it’s pretty much paved so container is the only way I can go until (if?) I manage to buy a house with a plantable area. Currently have some citrus in containers producing, a bunch of basil, tomatoes, and some various sprawlers like squash. I wish I had the space to put them all in the ground but I gotta work with what I have. Usually use heirloom seeds or hardware starter plants but gotta pick varieties that are good for containers so I don’t get that many options. I figured that potatoes would still be productive in the seasons when tomatoes aren’t growing on the branches due to heat or cold but I could be wrong since i’m still learning a lot.
Northern and central Alabama myself. Tater experience from central AL.
I’ve heard of people having great results with container tomatoes by taking the drip line of the AC unit and piping it into the tomatoes roots. Keeps the roots very cool.
Taters have a long season, plant just after frost is done. Blackberry Winter is no longer a constant due to climate change.
To try and do taters in containers, I would build my conainers from cinder blocks and fill the blocks with dirt or other insulation. 4’ wide at a minimum and however long you want/have space/can afford. This would be for one row. Paint the blocks white. Bury a soaker hose down the center. Put the hose on a timer and adjust for high temps. You’ll have to fight fungal infection due to the higher moisture so it would be delicate. I would treat with antifungal at intervals through the hose. Taters need more sand than you would think in the soil, especially if you have clay soil.
Do you grow tomatoes? Have you tried a brandywine? They’re balanced between sweet and tart. Love ‘em on a good burger.
Oxhearts are great for sauces (they have fewer seeds and a strong flavor.)
My favorites are the cherry tomatoes- can’t make up my mind on a single best, though. Blomdkopfchen roast amazing well (or grill!) where Amy’s Apricots do well in salads. Want to get my hands on some black cherries, though.
Chadwick’s are of course the old stand by in my greenhouse.
If you like beefsteaks, have you tried brandywine? They’re our favorite burger slicer here. (And oxhearts for saucing)
Mostly copied from above response.
Grew up working on a tater farm. Sweet taters and Irish taters.
We’re in process of moving further north and my girl is excited to try container gardening again.
I prefer heirloom seed or hardware start plants grown traditionally.
It’s been a long time since I’ve grown much of anything other than cacti, native ornamentals, and fungi. It’s a kind of work I swore off for a long time.
Just bought a play farm, will probably grow some tomatoes. Have apple trees, blueberries, and a small vineyard I need to learn.
Have always heard good things about Brandywine tomatoes.
Won’t be this year, but we’ll be trying some varieties.
Roma, we called Romies, were my favorite as a kid. Canned tomato soup and sauce always smelled amazing and the stuff in stores doesn’t compare.
Best judge of a tomato is to slice it up, add too much salt, and eat it with a fork.
I think you’re responding to yourself.
No idea how that happened. Gonna leave that up though.
Or Harris Wittels, best of both worlds, AND the afterlife.
We also get to see how many of the anti-Biden kids will actually vote now.
As much as I’d love to see it in my lifetime, no way she chooses a female VP. Way too risky.
Did you vote for H Clinton, though? I bet not.
What gives you the idea I didn’t?
Your vibe only
I’m sure this was a really hard decision, but it shows courage and strength that Biden put his own ego aside for the good of the country…
…is what I would have said if he’d done this two weeks ago. Now, I’m just glad he was able to take off his narcissism glasses long enough to see how badly he was going to lose, and I hope his prolonged tantrum hasn’t damaged Harris’ chances too badly.
I wouldn’t say this is bad timing in hindsight.
- The news media moves on from Trump’s pity party, the debate, the President Putin and Vice President Trump gaffes.
- Facing COVID, Biden has a legitimate reason to drop out without saying that he is weak to pressure
- Trump is now the old and doddering candidate, turning much of the past brainwashing of Republican media on its head.
- Trump will get bigly mad since the attention’s going to be off of him. Potential for a stupid outburst.
- The media will be hyperfocused on what’s to come from the Dem campaign, an excellent opportunity to highlight Biden’s achievements and articulate a bright future for the party and country.
- The pre-emptive smears from Republicans are on their way, but the Dems are a moving target until they officially announce the ticket.
It relies on Democrats getting the message right though they’d faltered before. They get one more chance to fix it in this soft reset.
Good post. Insert maybe maybe meme!
Yeah, but none of these benefits are better than ending the uncertainty 2 weeks ago; at that point, the polling was clearly showing Biden was dropping in key swing states, and the party was starting to go into full panic mode, but he still let them twist in the win while he made up his mind. Hell, even if he made the announcement during the convention, he could have stolen some of Trump’s publicity this week and forced a whole lot if RNC speakers to rewrite their speeches. Instead, he left the party in chaos for a month, then gave Trump a victory lap convention before finally stepping aside.
There were a lot of rumors and speculation about this possibility last week that I think did take a lot of attention away from the Republican convention.
True, but rumors and speculation make people think that the party is in chaos. Announcements and press conferences would have made it seem like the Democrats were mobilizing. I’ve heard a couple of people say that it was smart to do this right after the convention to blunt any polling bump Trump might get, but I think the whole RNC just came across like a victory lap, and now it looks like it culminated in Joe Biden’s surrender.
I was about to literally write the second half of your message then I saw you wrote it haha
I’m glad you had the proper timing figured out better than anyone else.
Anyone? We were saying this 3-4 weeks ago. You can check my post history, The Rest is Politics, or most commentators.
Here’s my post here with the BBC article referring to calls for him to step down.
I don’t doubt your sincerity, only your political wisdom.
Biden was not going to win.
Yeah, you don’t have to be a political genius to realize that almost four weeks of your own allies coming out and saying you need to step down is, ya know…bad. Like, maybe if your political implosion was creating a period of fear, uncertainty, and chaos, and there was you could do to end all that and restore order, you should do that quickly…like, as quickly as possible…as in, not nearly a month later.
You don’t have to be a genius to realize that just because an option is bad, that the alternative might still be worse. Waiting until after the RNC is far from stupid, for example.
Is it worse though? Is nearly a full month of chaos and panic actually worth waiting until the end of the Republican Convention?
What about the chaos that would have ensued if Biden had just quit right away?
This kind of thing isn’t supposed to happen. It was always going to cause chaos and problems for the Democrats, not to mention the rest of the country.
I’m not a great strategist. I don’t know whether he should have waited or not. I do know you can’t judge the decision by merely pointing out one-sided negatives.
I’m judging the decision by the three-dozen Democratic lawmakers who have been forced to slowly come forward and publicly ask him to step down. This should never have been this drawn out or public as Biden made it. Once it was clear that the rallies and the George Stephanopoulos interview weren’t going to make this go away, he should have left the race. But instead, he tried to run out the clock until the Convention, wasting valuable time that could have been spent coordinating around Harris or executing the, “Blitz Primary,” they were planning at the beginning of the month.
If Kamala does become the new nominee, I wonder how hard Trump will fight to avoid debating her.
Shit would be funny as hell to watch. Trump would be balling by the end.
Why do you refer to the female candidate with her first name and the male candidate with his last name? The same thing regularly happens with Clinton. I assume the casual disrespect is not intentional but I’m very curious as to why this happens.
I think people tend to choose the more unique/recognizable name to call candidates by. For example, we also call Bernie Sanders by his first name more often than his last. “Harris” is a more common name than “Kamala”. “Clinton” could be confused for Bill, but “Hillary” isn’t going to be mistaken. I don’t think it has anything to do with the candidate’s gender.
Going to throw in a few other unique examples like how Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is almost always called by her first and last name or the initials AOC. Similarly Ilhan Omar is almost always referred to by her first and last name.
The right loved to call Obama, Barack Hussein Obama with emphasis on Hussein to highlight how non-white he was, pin him as Muslim, and draw associations to Sadam Hussein. This was done to rile up their xenophobic and racist base.
“Harris” is a more common name than “Kamala”, and “Donald” is a more common name than “Trump”. This is just my opinion, but I think Kamala is a more powerful sounding name than Harris, and that helps with her image as a stern prosecutor who wants to crush injustice towards women.
“Clinton” refers (in most people’s minds) to Hillary’s husband Bill moreso than Hillary herself. In her campaign, she leveraged her first initial for her slogan “I’m with Her” with the stylized right-pointing arrow in the H. For her, it seems to be her choice and more clear. For Harris, it just seems to be because “Kamala” sticks out in people’s minds more than her last name.
They want to signal that they’re close to them, like Springsteen fans calling him “Bruce”.
I hope you meant bawling.
Nah, djt has a sick turn around jumper.
He was feared at Rucker Park back in the 70s. Not for his basketball mind you.
I’ll take bailing
Rolled up in the fetal position, crying like a baby balling.
Give me a Jon Stewart / Katie Porter ticket!
Make it Harris / Stewart.
Harris up top because she’s already on the ballot, has Biden / Harris war chest, and won’t get as fucked with by republicans who try to block a new name.
Jon Stewart has said he’d never run and I believe him, unfortunately
I would work the phone bank for that ticket
I’d forgotten what hope felt like.
Assuming the new candidate(probably Harris) avoid any major disasters as does Trump, we’ll be returning to the May 2024 status quo of things. Harris is more popular than post-debate Biden, was slightly behind pre-debate Biden, and will probably need a month to get back there(winning the nomination and undoing all the damage from 4 weeks of infighting.)
On the plus side, that’ll drop the hemorrhaging, New Mexico and New Jersey safe, Virginia and Minnesota probably safe. On the downside at this point Georgia and North Carolina are lost, there just isn’t time and the Republicans spent 4 years pouring resources into them.
This is back to the main 5. Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. The important factor is that if they lose Pennsylvania, they lose. They can win the other 4 here, but it’s 268-270. Unless they snag something extra like Georgia(unlikely in this scenario), that’s it.
If they win Pennsylvania, they need at least two others in ideal circumstances(Michigan needs to be one of the two and Nevada can’t be one of the two, second one would have to be Wisconsin or Arizona), 3 others in unideal circumstances if Michigan isn’t there and they get Nevada. I should also note several of these scenarios are razor thin (270-268 with Pensylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and 271-267 with Arizona instead) and thus vulnerable to faithless electors. Or worse, if Maine’s statewide went red(which is more likely than Georgia going blue or Virginia going red at this point) the former would be a win and the latter would be a tie. In the tie scenario the House picks the president(so Trump) and the Senate picks the Vice President(so Vance would be ousted) which would be an absolute nightmare and gambling on Trump dying in that situation isn’t worth it.
I note this because even in the base line May scenario Pennsylvania was one of the worse polling one for democrats(Arizona and Wisconsin were the blue edging ones), and Pennsylvania is not a state where the stars are aligning. It was Biden’s home state, Scranton boy, him being off the ticket hurts things there probably more than they help. AND, while it’s true nationwide the post-shooting bump for Trump was relatively minor, Pennsylvania is where the shooting happened and has gotten the largest bump in the polls since, 3 or 4 points. Biden leaving demotivates the base there harder than anywhere else in the county and the Trump shooting re-motivated the base there harder than most.
My call? If they don’t pick Shapiro or Whitmer, it’s over 100%, and even with it’s iffy. Pennsylvania is perhaps the one state where any replacement is going to do worse than Biden even post-debate, and the one state the Trump shooting caused a notable bump. What are the odds it’s also the single most crucial state in this election?
I disagree. Harris is basically polling within the margin of error of Biden, that’s true, but she’s also been the incredible invisible woman basically forever. It’s to the point that really the best the republicans can do against her atm is ads that amount to “LOOK AT HER LAUGHING >:{”. There’s good and bad there, but the positives outweigh the negatives in that she’s something of a known quantity at the national level, she’s got experience in the executive branch, and she really doesn’t have much baggage to speak of while still being able to claim Biden’s wins. If the democrats lean in behind Harris, get her polished up and just re-tool the Biden campaign for her, and she goes swinging out of the gate, I think she’ll make for a strong contender.
I’m going off the week 1 polls. She was weaker than everyone else when adjusted for name recognition and was the only one within the margins of Biden. I also don’t disagree on the base point, but there’s 3 months, the war machine needs time to spool up and the Republicans have had a 2 week headstart. It’s gonna be tight and Pensyllvania is not going well
I appreciate your analysis. Is there anything Harris can do or say that can make the situation any better for the Dems? A pivot to a message of Obama hope would be something I could think of. It’s not too late, they have more than 3 months.
He was giving too much away for the wealthy donors to stomach.
So instead if two oldsters, we have a choice of two people who will persecute poor people, which is much more in line with wealthy donors to the the Bloomocrats.
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pov: you’ve never heard of kerning
That’s definitely an important thing to focus on here.
given that it’s obviously a joke, i thought a little razzing was appropriate.
It’s called tracking when you refer to the vertical spacing. That’s what stands out to me as not so good.
they fixed the AV kerning
Thanks for the feedback, fixed!
oh god no. someone might take it seriously.
I’m hoping they do. I want people to talk about how we need a charismatic non-octogenarian in the president spot and someone very popular in the VP spot.
how about AOC Fetterman?
Fetterman shifted significantly to the right after his stroke. He’s tainted goods.
I think AOC is great, but I don’t think she would win the general this year. A future year, sure.
He’s tainted goods.
he reaches across the aisle. i’m not going to vote forhim (again) for senator but i would vote for aoc for president.
A politician who’s only really known in one state and another octogenarian? No thank you.
It’s disingenuous to say Newsom is only known in one state. He’s the governor of a highly populous state who has already explored a presidential run. That’s essentially equivalent to saying that Abbott or DeSantis aren’t nationally relevant. Disliking the idea of that being the ticket that the Democrats trot out is one thing, I’m certainly not on board with it either. Dismissing it on a false premise is something else altogether, and it’s not a helpful narrative.
I respect that perspective but Desantis did fail miserably. As far as a larger opinion, refer to my response to morph in this thread. Yes, California is a different league of gubernatorial duties. He has the juice but my gut says he doesn’t have the household name recognition and can’t build that in three months.
Most politicians start off known in one state…
With a two year lead for campaigning and news coverage to become a household name. I actually like Newsom and California is as good as a test for executive leadership as anything else a politician can do but this timing is not good for him to actually win.
Are you kidding me? Fox news screeches about Newsom all the time.
No offense at your choice, but there’s not many Californians (47% disapproval rate by last Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll), who like Gavin enough to vote for him. He’s a mouthpiece and a showman for sure, but he’s useless when it comes to getting anything done.
Removed by mod
I think Biden should step down as president too. I don’t think it looks right for them to be saying Biden isn’t fit to run but is fit to fill the remainder of his term.
Unless he’s fit for now but not for 4 more years.
He’s not fit for right now either, hasn’t been for years. What we saw at the debate is who he’s been for years. Many of us saw it in 2020 and earlier
