As they mention in the article they anticipated a much slower collapse and likely prepared for that. But at the rate it’s currently going, it’s quite astounding. The fragmentation and internal strife in Russia are certainly not over.
I did read one article that made a reference to this more being an “end of the beginning” rather than the “beginning of the end”. Which I agree with. It hasn’t collapsed the federation overnight, but it’s certainly weakened it a hell of a lot.
Living in Russia, I have mixed feelings about this slow controlled collapse TBF.
For Russia itself, maybe things being over after a couple of months (or years) of civil war starting in 1999 would be better.
But for everybody else, of course, there are bigger risks associated with that. Not really something nuclear even, just economically less pleasant.
Are you in Russia right now? How are things over there?
I really hate reportage like this. Every government, even seemingly incompetent ones like the current crop in the UK, have hundreds or thousands of contingency plans for things of wildly varying likelihood. This is just one of those things.
This is just as informative as those articles that say eating sugar triggers the same receptors as cocaine. Yes it’s true, but there aren’t that many reward mechanisms in the brain, so a lot of shit hits those same receptors.
It’s data and it’s true, but it’s not useful information.
We have a plan to invade literally every country and for if that country invades us that is updated regularly. I always found that kind of funny but it isn’t shocking.
Why would it be funny?
Having a plan for an unlikely event is not funny if having such a plan is your job. There are plenty of people who should do exactly that.
Because not having a plan for an unlikely event that bloody happens is, eh, negatively funny.
It’s like saying the police is preparing for thieves robbing the bank or the fire department preparing for a wildfire. It’s part of their job and it would be stranger not to have a contingency plan.
Consider the source. Pretty sure this is propaganda.
If you’re preparing for it, is it really that “unexpected”…?
You can be prepared for all kinds of things you aren’t expecting. For example you could get occupational disablement insurance while not expecting to ever use it.
Maybe they’re preparing for it so it won’t be unexpected
My body is ready
The anticipatory poop challenge part deux.
In their place i would rather prepare for scenario of unexpected collapse of United Kingdom.
Who says they have not prepared for that?
Considering their preparations for other things, like brexit or covid i would say LOL.
To be fair, it’s not exactly an unexpected scenario.
I would even say, desired.
Fuck, this is reddit people :-D
I’d just like to interject for a moment. What you are refering to as Reddit, is in fact Lemm or as I have recently taken to calling it The+Fediverse …
The world will be a better place when British regime falls, no question about that.
Implying that there is a current regime.
Correct, it’s a regime that bans public protest and tortures journalists. If one of the designated enemies was caught doing what UK is doing then you’d wast no time calling it a regime.
Very unlikely scenario. Expected collapse on the other hand…
I mean, collapse of Russia is something very much expected in Russia by many people since 1993.
What makes it less expected is that it hasn’t happened in 30 years, though.
It was made into a film called Children of Men.
Great movie and accurately depicts brexit
Plan for a possible possible eventuality? That’ll be a first.
I assume there was a plan that Cameron got rid of because reasons and now they can’t find the PDF so they’ll have to do it again.
Someone couldn’t rotate it so they just deleted it and pretended it never came.
Regardless of the article, using the term “unexpected” is kind of naive at this point.
Am I missing something or did nothing in the article match the title?
I thought it was; maybe the link you got was to the front page, or something? The article was mostly about how Prigozhin’s attempted coup (or whatever it was) surprised Western leaders, and a bunch of speculation about how the West is scrambling to prepare contingemcy plans. So the one I read seemed to match.
However, I think it was a fluff article, with little substance. Prigozhin has been agitating for weeks, and I seriously doubt MI6 (or the CIA) was surprised by his actions. Or that nobody has a contingency plan for chaos in Russia. Putin’s a dictator, and when dictators die, it’s rarely a peaceful transition of power.
“Some people in UK government maybe consider thinking about doing something because something happened”. Much better title.
I sincerely do not understand why…
Maybe it’s your attitude and insulting manner? None of your arguments required your comments about “liberals”. Given those, it’s disingenuous to attribute the downvotes to your “facts”.
Honestly I doubt that Putin will fall from power that easily. He seems to take nots of precautions and he has lots of friends
Looks old now. He will probably die anyway.
Even if there’s no coup/revolution/he doesn’t get assassinated/etc.
He’s 70, and very possibly not in the best health. Statistically it wouldn’t be very surprising if he dropped dead of natural causes at any moment. Technically he’s already a small anomaly of a Russian male just because he has lived as long as he has since their average life expectancy is currently something like 65 (which is admittedly skewed very young by a whole lot of stuff like drinking, drug use, suicide, and being shipped off to Ukraine) And even if he beats all odds and lives another 30 years it still shouldn’t be unexpected for him to just decide to step down and retire at some point. Shit, if I had a fraction of the money and assets he has, I’d have called it quits a long time ago and disappeared from the public view.
And when he goes, no matter how he goes, there’s going to be a power vacuum that needs to be filled and a whole lot of assholes jockeying for position. I won’t pretend to know how that will go, maybe there will be all-out civil war, maybe just a handful of the right people will fall out of windows or drink polonium tea or just get disappeared, maybe there will be a major economic collapse and a rise in crime rates, maybe everything will just be hunky-dory and it really was just Putin holding everything back and Russia will enter a new age of enlightenment (it will probably not be that last one)
Aw shit here we go again
I know mexico is really worried…so they drink tequila and move on.
so they drink tequila and move on
based
Unexpected? I thought everyone was already expecting
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Oh boy, Russian shills on Lemmy.
Not a good look.
@Pacifist @TheAnonymouseJoker #Lemmy in general, and lemmy.ml in particular, is known for white-knighting for dictators tho, so this isn’t all too unexpected tbh
Although I guess in most cases they wait for the dictator to die first so that people forget how bad he was
yeah, this is the norm for lemmy, it’s balanced political takes that are the new look as more of the general populace come in.
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Preparing for disasters is part of a county’s survival. What are you even talking about?
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I wouldn’t hold your breath. The UK has had a stable political system longer than most countries have existed, and has weathered much worse situations than now.
Russia’s got form for instability. 3 revolutions in the 20th century, the collapse of the Soviet Union, a civil war, numerous wars with neighbours, 4 or 5 attempted coups that I can think of off the top of my head, plus the issues Russia usually has when transferring leadership. A new coup attempt isn’t a good sign.
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Russia, a country with the strongest military You’re having a laugh? On the weekend they appeared to be the second best army in Russia when up against a band of mercenaries.
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Empire is irrelevant here, as it had very little bearing on the domestic political situation in the UK. Virtually all the British Empire became independent over just a few decades, at the same time that mass de-industrialisation happened domestically. Yet during this period elections still happened in the UK, power changed hands smoothly multiple times, there were no revolutions or coups, and even the IRA was at most an irritant. Despite the loss of empire and the rapid change in the workforce and makeup of the economic output of the UK, it still paid its bills, maintained a nuclear deterrent, integrated a large influx of ex-Empire immigrants, pioneered socialised healthcare in the West, and managed to grow its domestic economy at a reasonable rate almost all the way through. You’d be hard pushed to find another country that was as stable, given the specific challenges over that period.
Brexit was a mistake, and recent governments have been terrible, but don’t delude yourself into thinking those are existential crises for the UK. The government will get replaced without much fuss, the UK will patch up its relationship with the EU even if it doesn’t rejoin, and the wheels will keep turning.
Man the Tankies are even more annoying here on Lemmy…
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After the events that just strengthened it? Absurd. Anything to avoid actually feeding people, addressing the 33% of children currently in poverty or the constantly declining living standards we have I suppose.
EDIT: God this place has gone south since all the redditors came over.
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When a coup fails, it strengthens the existing state. It has told everyone that might rebel that there is too much support in the existing state for it to succeed. See Erdogan doing it intentionally in Turkey to strengthen and consolidate his power if you want another example of this.
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I live in the UK. This is absolutely a fucking waste of our time and energy. Nobody gives a damn about this when a third of children in the country live in poverty and cost of living is through the roof. It is entirely a distraction because Brexit, austerity and successive neoliberal governments have systematically gutted the country. Anything to distract from the fact half the country keeps going on strike or actually paying people more.
But did the coup really fail? Prigozhin simply called it off after !another! country negotiated a solution. The coup in Turkey failed because of, seemingly, Erdogan being too powerful and the people loving him. In Russia it failed because of Lukashenko intervening and Prigozhin calling it off. Putin does not look strong currently.
Of course he called it off lmao. He had NO SUPPORT. He was totally isolated.
Compare this to the gang of eight when the communists attempted but failed a coup and you’ll see what a real powerful coup attempt looks like. That failed.
Look at who supported and took part in that and compare it to Prigozhin’s isolated attempt with absolutely no support, no allies, nothing, while every single other political and military force in the country backed the state.
Prigo grossly overestimated his position. He thought he would get supporters once it was launched, he got absolutely nothing and he backed out at the earliest opportunity with a guarantee of his life being protected in Belarus. This was accepted by state because the alternative would have been a disaster for Russia with thousands of dead in a battle for Rostov and defence of the outskirts of Moscow.
I mean, I agree with your points here. Honestly, I’m wondering why he started in the first place as his life still is in danger.
I just don’t agree that this strengthened the state/Putin. In a way, if someone like Prigozhin without any realistic chance tries a coup and gets away with his life (at least for now) doesn’t this show how weak Russia currently is?
I think he simply grossly overestimated his support, believing that something more would come of it that did not.
I just don’t agree that this strengthened the state/Putin. In a way, if someone like Prigozhin without any realistic chance tries a coup and gets away with his life (at least for now) doesn’t this show how weak Russia currently is?
It has embarrassed Russia for sure, the global south in particular supports Russia a lot and there will be some respect lost through it but that’s not going to change much about why they support Russia (serves their interests to see a multipolar world emerge) so they’ll continue to do so.
While it may have caused foreign embarrassment that’s not really important in terms of “strength” of the state. The strength of a state is determined by the political and military powers within it supporting it and its institutions. Literally all of them did so which has ultimately served to resolve the question “is it possible for Russia to collapse?” with a resounding “No” at this time.
By comparison and to do a big whatabout - I would say that the US has a greater amount of division and potential for political and financial factions to attempt to tear it apart. I however don’t think that there is anyone quite as bold or stupid as Prigo to overestimate their support or underestimate the size of the support you need to tear apart and successfully coup a country like that though.
Like I keep pointing out, the gang of eight were an incredibly powerful coalition that failed. They serve as an example of the kind of coalition you really need to pull this shit off and they make Prigo look like a bit of a joke by comparison. Part of me wonders if members of the Russian intelligence community deliberately led him on into believing he had support in order to create this outcome, but that’s pure speculation. The man isn’t entirely stupid though, so I have to wonder what exactly made him think he would have more support.
TBH, I haven’t read that much about the aftermath. I only heard some parts (e.g. the secret services) kept quiet for quite some time which suggests for me that they didn’t really care either way. If everyone really supported him it does make a coup/collapse less likely. The impression I got was simply:
- The support for Putin was cautious, especially in the beginning
- Putins handling and Lukashenkos involvement do not convey strength thereby making everyone with power more likely to support a future coup
I also don’t think the gang of eight is that diectly relatable because the SU collapsed. Here, it would simply mean replacing one president for another. In theory, a coup is as simple as a successful assasination (ignoring the successor question).
For me, it doesn’t look like there is any way out for Putin. Winning the war is unrealistic at this time, would take a long time and would result in a long embargo from the west, destroying the economy even further. Losing the war will probably result in extreme protests with all the casualties that already occurred. We will see whatever happens. I assume that Prigozhin failed not because the elite support Putin but because they are even more afraid of him. I assume everyone with money wants the war to end.
And about the USA, yeah that’s a bit of a whataboutism. There is a lot of division there and I think they are one bad president away from significantly worsening the situation. We will see about that too I guess.
I think we’re going to end up talking past each other as we disagree and there’s a few things we’d just end up repeating over and over so forgive me for skipping a chunk here. I will respond to this though:
destroying the economy even further
“Even further” is an odd choice here. The Russian economy is stronger now than before the war sanctions. The sanctions failed miserably, everything that Russia could no longer get from the west it simply gets from South East Asia (China/India mainly) and the Middle East now. Reddit thinks there was some great economic smashing of Russia but it really horribly failed.
Winning the war is unrealistic at this time, would take a long time
“Winning” here is more a question of when parties will get round a table to negotiate again. The war almost ended in April but Boris Johnson put a stop to the deal that would have done that. It could end quickly, it could also take a long time, dependent almost entirely on how long the west wants to drag it out as a proxy war for. There is also the question of whether the US and EU might pivot to a focus on China, which would also result in getting round a table to end the Ukraine war first as they simply do not have the means to focus on both at once.
And about the USA, yeah that’s a bit of a whataboutism. There is a lot of division there and I think they are one bad president away from significantly worsening the situation. We will see about that too I guess.
It’s not really whatabout. It’s just useful to have a comparative baseline for “division” to understand what is necessary to create and succeed in a coup. Do you think one would succeed in the US under the current conditions? What factions and groups would need to be involved? This thought experiment is useful for understanding the kind of divisions, alliances and coalitions necessary to making a coup succeed elsewhere. It helps ground your thoughts in a more material reality rather than the fantasies peddled in the media circuit.
You’re right, our views differ quite a lot. In your comment I disagree with basically every conclusion. The Russian economy is worse off, the war will end with Russia getting at most Crimea and a coup in the US is completely unrealistic as of now.
Time will tell.
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The whole thing reeks of a fake operation now that Lukashenko was the solution AND Biden making a statement that US isn’t involved. Neither states are trustworthy narrators. Who knows
First things first, the US is going to deny involvment either way. So this means nothing TBH.
Lukashenko being involved is quite weird to me and makes me wonder if there is something going on there. Does Prigozhin really think that his life is safe now? Or was it simply delayed (e.g. because of assistance by Lukashenko in a future coup?). It doesn’t really make sense either way.
The manner in which a coup is stopped makes all the difference. It only enhances the position of the government if the government is seen to deal with the coup attempt promptly and effectively. If the government is not seen to deal with it effectively, then even if the coup is ultimately unsuccessful, it undermines the government.
In this case, Putin was not seen to deal with the coup effectively. Wagner was able to secure the Southern Military District headquarters - the main operational HQ of the war in Ukraine - in Rostov-on-Don with essentially no opposition, then drive most of the way to Moscow with only minor skirmishes along the way. If we believe the widely-disseminated reports, then seven Russian military aircraft were lost to Wagner actions, but only one Wagner truck was lost in return. Putin was not seen or heard from for a long time, and reports surfaced that he had flown to St. Petersburg, and when he did appear, his message was not particularly decisive. When the coup was abandoned, it was done not through force, or by Putin publicly facing down Wagner like Yeltsin did in 1991. It was abandoned due to some back-room deal, brokered by Lukashenko of all people, the details of which have not been made public.
The Russian government’s internal security apparatus appears incompetent because it did not consider Wagner a threat, even though Prigozhin had been telegraphing his intentions for days (and probably planning it for months). The Russian military appears weak and overstretched, because it could not protect its operational HQ by force. Putin appears weak because he disappeared at the crucial moments, and large parts of Russia appeared sympathetic to Prigozhin even if they weren’t prepared to directly take part. The image of Putin being the supreme ruler in charge of everything looks pretty suspect at this point, and Russians know it because most of the events happened live on Russian state TV.
Putin has a long history of wriggling out of difficult situations, and he might still pull things out of the bag, but I think this is the beginning of the end for him.
The Russian government’s internal security apparatus appears incompetent because it did not consider Wagner a threat, even though Prigozhin had been telegraphing his intentions for days (and probably planning it for months). The Russian military appears weak and overstretched, because it could not protect its operational HQ by force. Putin appears weak because he disappeared at the crucial moments, and large parts of Russia appeared sympathetic to Prigozhin even if they weren’t prepared to directly take part. The image of Putin being the supreme ruler in charge of everything looks pretty suspect at this point, and Russians know it because most of the events happened live on Russian state TV.
This is all “appears” “appears” “appears”. You are hung up on appearances. You seem to think that if they just appear a certain way to people then that will magically change the balances of factional power in the country.
Liberals have this bizarre idea about where power comes from. You all seem to believe that the population of the country has power, that if the government simply appears weak then it will magically result in the population doing… Something… And then the government will be overthrown and the war will be won!
Power is derived by those in hierarchical positions in a country to command various things within their positions to occur. And when enough people all align alongside one another and command things to happen together, if the related organisations follow those commands, they hold power.
I acknowledge in my other comments that this is embarrassing (which is quite a similar interpretation to you saying it hurts appearances). But the bottom line is how it affects power in the country. What factions exist and who those factions are aligning themselves behind.
This attempt did not result in anything like a weakening of the state or Putin. It consolidated all the sources of power in the country behind Putin, into statements of support and actions that back it up.
Putin has a long history of wriggling out of difficult situations, and he might still pull things out of the bag, but I think this is the beginning of the end for him.
By what mechanism?
By what mechanism?
Putin is up for re-election in March 2024. Presidential term limits may have been removed in 2020, but he still needs to go back to the polls. If he cannot be sure of a resounding victory, there’s a good chance he will retire rather than seek re-election. He may try to declare martial law and suspend the constitution, but his political capital to do that is a lot more meagre than it was in February 2022. More than any other election since he was first elected in 2000, he will need real support from his political base, and I’m no longer convinced he will get it.
Prigozhin is now in a pretty good position to be kingmaker, even if he won’t or can’t be a presidential candidate himself.
Of course everyone with any loyalty to the state, or with any future political ambitions of their own has come out in support - at least publicly - of the status quo. To do otherwise would be political suicide. But that doesn’t mean they actually support Putin privately.
You’re expecting the main opposition - the communist party - to beat him then? Zyuganov?
If that fantasy happened it would split the communist party between the half that is controlled opposition who would see it as “the wrong time” for it to happen and the half who truly want socialist power again. The election would then be redone with a 3 way split between the two factions and Navalny’s fascist coalition supported by the euro liberals.
I mean, I would want that outcome as it would result in a real left communist opposition emerging but I think it’s incredibly unrealistic. Not to mention that you’re expecting the population to boot a leader during the middle of a war? I am not sure how often that has happened, populations understand you keep the same leader during wartime. You would need the population to become against the war for that to occur and uhhh I hate to break it to you but absolutely the support the war and it would take a huge change in the frontline situation to change that - one that I do not think is coming judging by the failures of the counter offensive so far.
I think any serious presidential competitor has yet to emerge - none of the Communist candidates, or Navalny, are credible IMO. 9 months is plenty of time to make a campaign happen though.
It’s at least as likely that, off the back of the poor performance in the war, and especially the dismal reaction to the Wagner affair, that Putin will be simply “encouraged” behind the scenes to retire rather than run again, and United Russia will put forward some kind of “interim” candidate who will probably win.
FWIW if you want examples of leadership changes during a war, how about Neville Chamberlain? Or the two revolutions in Russia itself in 1917?
I think any serious presidential competitor has yet to emerge - none of the Communist candidates, or Navalny, are credible IMO. 9 months is plenty of time to make a campaign happen though.
I don’t think this is realistic. You’re asking for sweeping massive electoral pattern changes that won’t happen without a massive crisis functioning as a catalyst. I can’t see a source for such a crisis on the horizon though, the frontline isn’t going to change while the economic sanctions were resoundingly defeated and hurt we european residents significantly more than Russians.
FWIW if you want examples of leadership changes during a war, how about Neville Chamberlain?
Chamberlain was not changed by an election of the population of the UK, he was changed by Conservative party infighting leading to the 1922 committee demanding his resignation in a “do it or we’ll do it for you” ultimatum, as they have always done. Chamberlain resigned his position as leader of the Conservative party and Churchill took it.
There was no election in the UK between the years of 1935 and 1945.
Or the two revolutions in Russia itself in 1917?
Generated by an unpopular war in a series of wars that the tsar repeatedly got people killed in for his vanity. This is not an unpopular war though and there is no anti-war movement, it is supported by every political faction of the country. Even the euro liberals don’t openly state their opposition and that’s not because they would disappear (they wouldn’t) but because it would be wildly unpopular and harm their political growth, they are forced into silence through the conditions that currently exist.
that Putin will be simply “encouraged” behind the scenes to retire rather than run again
This requires factional fighting, which is non-existent at this time. He has broad across the spectrum support both in his party and in opposition groups because they all see him as ushering in a multi-polar world, which is extremely beneficial to the interests of every faction that exists. I still do not see where you think the factionalism exists for this to happen. Who? Why? What faction is going to push him out and for what purpose? With everyone wanting to see the completion of this project there’s no faction internally to interrupt it.
So, the two conflicting armies of Russia shooting at each other, the minister of defence not anticipating this although he instigated it, the president running away, both (minister and president) not addressing the nation in a speech for 3 days after the incident, and the revolutionary leaving on his own account without suffering any substantial losses?
The Russian army bombarded Wagner camps, starting the whole affair, Wagner shot down helicopters of the Russian army during the march. Do you think that will strengthen the ties between Wagner troops and the Russian army to cooperate better in the future? Wagner didn’t face any notable resistance the first cities they passed through, and that is a show of strength for Putin? Yeah, no. I don’t think that makes much sense, sorry.
Putin will have to go full berserker mode now to portrait some strength, make an example of the mayors of those cities, axe the minster of defence for being obviously incompetent here, and arrange a polonium-tea or something for Prigozhin. And while this might help him save his face as strong leader, it will probably lead to more resistance from others.
Why are liberals this delusional?
Mayors? You think 2 mayors not acting quickly enough on shaky unknown information within just hours shows that the state is weak?
The issue is that there was NO support for Prigo. He was totally isolated. Not one single person in a military or political position of power came to his side as he had hoped. Every single actual source of power in the country (and outside of it) backed Putin.
Compare this to 1991 when the communists attempted a coup in the soviet union to (correctly) prevent its eventual dissolution. They had the Gang of Eight which included:
- Gennady Yanayev (1937–2010), Vice President
- Valentin Pavlov (1937–2003), Premier
- Boris Pugo (1937–1991), Interior Minister
- Dmitry Yazov (1924–2020), Defense Minister and Marshal of the Soviet Union
- Vladimir Kryuchkov (1924–2007), Chairman of the KGB
- Oleg Baklanov (1932–2021), First Deputy Chairman of the Defense Council of the USSR
- Vasily Starodubtsev (1931–2011), Chairman of the Peasants’ Union of the USSR
- Alexander Tizyakov (1926–2019), President of the Association of State Enterprises
This was a REAL and powerful coup attempt with real political and military support. A true split in the country.
They failed, and no further attempt would occur afterwards, it strengthened the state and the opposition forces that sought to end socialism in the country and bring about the economic hell of Shock Therapy.
You can not possibly argue that this mutiny (calling it a coup compared to past failures is laughable), by one man with literally zero allies, which ended in a single day has done anything other than strengthen the state by showing everyone how there is no political or military division. Not to mention Wagner is being disbanded as well so that only brings that chapter to a close.
You people need to get more realistic.
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