What would be some fact that, while true, could be told in a context or way that is misinfomating or make the other person draw incorrect conclusions?
What would be some fact that, while true, could be told in a context or way that is misinfomating or make the other person draw incorrect conclusions?
As ice cream sales in the United States increase, so do deaths in in developed parts of Africa.
I use this fact to explain to students how true information can be used to mislead people into drawing wild, deranged conclusions.
The commonality in these events is the rise in temperature during the summer. But if you leave that out, there’s an absurd argument to be made about how purchasing ice cream is inherently evil.
I don’t think it’s an amazing example of what OP is talking about, but as an example, I like how simple and easy to follow it is. Great for junior high level kids.
According to a new study published by the University of Berchul, eating ice cream can make you be in risk of drowning.
So there’s some “incorrect” assumptions you have made about the North American summer, and weather in Africa. In the North American summer, only North Africa experiences summer with you guys. The rest of the continent is blanketed in rains (West, Central and East Africa) or are in outright winter (Southern Africa). So our temperatures do come down in your winter. Your coldest months are our hottest months for most of the continent (except for North Africa). So saying the developed parts of Africa
Is this related to correlation is not causation?
Correlation at least tries to imply they’re related. As lottery sales go up in your household so does credit card debt. Not always a cause but they’re related
You’re looking for spurious correlations which is when numbers have no business even being used in a comparison
I mean, they are related. There’s a common causation (higher temperatures). There’s plenty of spurious correlations but this specific example isn’t it
yes
Not exactly. What you’re looking for is coincidence.
But correlation is sometimes caused by coincidence.
Do you have an example? I’m pretty sure correlation cannot be caused by coincidence.
Coincidence is describing two things happening at the same time but with separate causes. Correlation is describing two things having a common cause.
First thing you learn in a statistics course is that correlation doesn’t equal causation.
Correlation: two thing happening at the same time or one thing happening right after the other, regardless of whether the things are at all connected
Causation: one thing happening BECAUSE of the other
Oh yes I got my definition of correlation slightly wrong. Correlation doesn’t necessarily mean that two things have the same cause but they do relate in some way either by having a common cause or by occuring in the same system. They definitely have more in common than happening just at the same time or right after each other like a coincidence.I didn’t claim that correlation equals causation and I hope you didn’t get the impression because this would be oviously wrong.Edit: I stand corrected and today I learned that “correlation” means that two things have a statistical relation without any causal relation implied. There can be a causal relation but it’s not necessary. The key takeaway for me is that correlation describes a statistical relationship.
Here you go: https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
In equally unrelated news, there’s also a direct correlation between ice cream sales and shark attacks. We have to steal all the ice cream before more people get eaten!